Our emerging approach to agricultural development

1. Our emerging approach to agricultural development October 18, 2006 Rajiv Shah, MD Director, Agricultural Development Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

2. Who We Are Bill and Melinda Gates believe every life has equal value. In 2000, they created the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to help reduce inequities in the United States and around the world. Two values lie at the core of the foundation’s work: • All lives—no matter where they are being led—have equal value. • - To whom much has been given, much is expected.

3. Foundation History, Results, and Learning Grant making To Date: Core Challenges: • Strategic risk taking • Role of partnerships • Learning through successes and through failures Select Results: • 1 million children's lives saved by GAVI immunization effort • 12,911 scholarships supported to date • 48,000 HIV+ patients in Botswana receiving treatment through ACHAP • 4.2 million condoms distributed by Avahan in India • 1,123 new, affordable housing units due to Sound Families Initiative

4. Our Approach to Agricultural Development • Our strategy: • Focus on a target market • Strategic initiatives • Data, policy and advocacy • Market access • Input utilization • Science and technology • Build partnerships for scale and success • Invest, measure, learn and recalibrate • Share results and listen to outside voices • Initial observations • Development • Inequity • Lessons learned • Science and technology • Perspective of the small farmer • Rural development • Our approach • The problem • Initial strategy • Vision of success

5. Target Market: The state of undernourishment today Approximate number of undernourished in developing world:0.83 billion Undernourishment: Defined as “consuming too little food to maintain normal levels of activity” (WDI 2006). According to FAO undernourishment occurs at calorie consumption below 1,900 calories a day. Map is based on WDI 2006 and United Nations Populations Prospects Database (2004 Revision) Underlying population data represents 2005; undernourishment data represents 2000 - 2004

6. World South Asia Sub-Saharan North America Target Market: Many key trends are not moving in the right direction • Over the last 15 years the number of Africans living below the poverty line ($1/day) has increased by 50% • It is estimated that almost 200 million people in Africa, or over one-third of the population, suffers from hunger • In the past five years alone, the number of underweight children in Africa has risen by approximately 12% (IFPRI, 2005) Crop yields and agricultural output in SSA is not keeping up with population growth or productivity in other parts of the world. Maize yield (Hg/Ha) CAGR = 2.15% CAGR = 2.13% CAGR = 1.60% CAGR = 0.7%

7. Example: Promoting Access to Markets • Early activities: • - RFP issued • -1300 concept notes reviewed • Early thinking on strategy: • Both demand and supply-driven strategies are needed • Farmers need access to relevant information and local exchanges • Unique approach at each market level: local, province, nation, region, OECD • Must be responsive to each unique environment Goal: Demonstrate scaleable models of improving small holder farmer access to markets in order to double 2005 adoption rates of improved technologies and improve farm income and household welfare

8. Example: Develop and improve the utilization of new input technologies Crop improvement Create improved crop varieties suitable for the drought, disease, insect and soil fertility stresses of Africa and Asia in order to double attainable yield in selected key crops Distribution channels Invest in seed multiplication and distribution strategies

9. Example: Program for Africa’s Seed Systems Public Channels Government Registration Multiplication Bulk-up Quality Control Packaging Public Sector/ NGA Distribution Planting Harvest Global Breeding Local Variety Breeding Genomics Gene Banks Foundation Seed SME Marketing Distribution SME Bulk-up Quality Control Packaging Private Sector Registration Multiplication Private Channels

10. Building an integrated approach for Africa AFRICAN GREEN REVOLUTION ALLIANCE (AGRA) Major Initiatives 2006 2011 2016 Develop effective seed system (PASS) Link farmers to improved and equitable output markets (at scale) Major initiatives Improve use of other inputs: fertilizer and irrigation Agricultural education & training Policy and political advocacy/support (ongoing) Build capacity to be results-oriented, and begin to show impact Advocacy Strategy Build key political and operational stakeholder support Attract major public and private financing to scale and sustain renewed African Green Revolution

11. Early Learnings and Key Questions