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Climate change and the future of world agriculture

Climate change and the future of world agriculture. Martha Anne DeBerry Sydney Fogle Rachel Himmelstein Leigh Snelgrove. None Like it Hot. General Information. Effects. Regions. Agriculture. Food Production. North America. North America Climate Change. Increase in Temperature

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Climate change and the future of world agriculture

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  1. Climate change and the future of world agriculture Martha Anne DeBerry Sydney Fogle Rachel Himmelstein Leigh Snelgrove None Like it Hot

  2. General Information

  3. Effects

  4. Regions

  5. Agriculture

  6. Food Production

  7. North America

  8. North America Climate Change • Increase in Temperature • Increase in temperature 1-2°C from 2010-2039 • Greatest in winter at high latitudes and greatest in the summer in the south-west U.S • Precipitation • Decrease in the south-west of the U.S • Yet increase over the rest of the continent • Greater risk of flooding with high precipitation • Risk of droughts because of greater temporal variability in precipitation

  9. North America Freshwater Resources • Surface Water • Melting and significant reductions in snowpack in the western mountains by the middle of the 21st century • Water sheds dominated by snowmelt will lead to • snowmelt runoff advances, • winter and early spring flows increase (raising flooding potential), • summer flows decrease substantially • Effects to Columbia River • Effects to the Great Lakes

  10. North America Agriculture • Moderate climate change will likely increase yields of North American: • Rain-fed agriculture, but with smaller increases and more spatial variability • Areas with decreased precipitation would restrict the availability of water for irrigation • At the same time increasing water demand for irrigated agriculture and urban and ecological uses

  11. Latin America Extreme Weather Events from 2004-2006

  12. Latin America Climate Change DJF= December/January/February, JJA= June/July/August.

  13. Latin America Freshwater Resources • Almost 13.9% of the Latin American population (71.5 million people) have no access to a safe water supply; 63% of these (45 million people) live in rural areas • Severe stress can be expected in • Eastern Central America • Eastern and Western regions of El Salvador • Central valley and Pacific regions of Costa Rica • Northern, central and western inter-montane regions of Honduras • Peninsula of Azuero in Panama

  14. Latin America Agriculture Predicted 2000-2010 South American and Central American deforestation hotspots and diffuse deforestation areas .

  15. Europe and Climate Change

  16. Difference between Northern and Southern Europe • Northern Europe will benefit from the climate change. • Southern Europe will suffer more from the climate change.

  17. Human Health in Europe

  18. Impact on Socioeconomics

  19. Climate Change and Asia

  20. Impact on Asia’s Agriculture

  21. Asia’s Rice Supply “No one eats more rice than Asia,” -Deputy Director-General for Research at IRRI (International Rice Research Institute)

  22. Mongolia

  23. Predicted Effects of Climate Change on Australia ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE INCREASE OF 0.4-2.0 °C BY 2030 ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE INCREASE OF 1.0-6.0°C BY 2070 SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA RAINFALL DECLINE BY 5-20% BY 2030 SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA RAINFALL DECLINE BY 5-10% BY 2070 INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND OCCURRENCE OF EXTREME EVENTS

  24. Predicted Effects of Climate Change on Australia Reduction in wheat yields 0-5 per cent 5-10 per cent 10-15 per cent 15-20 per cent > 20 per cent

  25. Predicted Effects of Climate Change on Australia CHANGE IN NATIONAL GROSS VALUE OF THE WHEAT CROP IN YEAR 2070 (A) WITHOUT ADAPTATION (B) WITH ADAPTATION

  26. Predicted Effects of Climate Change on Australia MURRAY-DARLING BASIN

  27. Predicted Effects of Climate Change on Australia GOYDER’S LINE WHEAT BELT

  28. Australia’s Farming Future: Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry FARM READY CLIMATE CHANGE ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM TRANSITIONAL INCOME SUPPORT FARM BUSINESS ANALYSIS AND FINANCIAL ASSESSMENT

  29. Predicted Effects of Climate Change in Africa

  30. Climate Change in Africa: Cause for Concern National food security issues South African highveld region

  31. Farmer Adaptations toClimate Change in Africa DIFFERENT CROPS IRRIGATION SYSTEMS SOIL CONSERVATION CHANGING PLANTING DATES CHANGING AMOUNT OF LAND UNDER CULTIVATION IMPLEMENTING NEW TECHNOLOGY

  32. Barriers to Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa

  33. Responses Preventative Adaptive Technological

  34. Preventative Measures The “Greening Hypothesis”

  35. Adaptation

  36. Technological

  37. Questions?

  38. Resources “4 Examples of Genetically Modified Crops.” BIONET. 2002. <www.bionetonline.org/English/Content/ff_cont4.htm>. 30 Apr 2010. Agriculture and Climate Change in Europe-Regional Facts and Challenges. Univeristy of Rostock, Germany: 2007. Agriculture and Rural Development Department. “Climate Change and Agriculture: A Review of Impacts and Adaptations”. June 2003. <http://www.c-ciarn.uoguelph.ca/documents/World_Bank_Paper.pdf>. 13 Mar 2010. Australian Government: Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry. “Australia’s Farming Future.” <http://www.daff.gov.au/climatechange/australias-farming-future>. 10 Feb 2010. Bryan, E. et. al. “Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints.” Environmental Science & Policy. Vol. 12:2009. Dume, Belle. “How could climate change affect farming in Europe?”. Science of the Total Environment, 2009. <http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/40689>. 20 Apr 1010. Fowler, Cary. “One Seed at a Time: Protecting the Future of Food.” TED. 2009. <http://www.ted.com cary_fowler_one_seed_at_a_time_protecting_the_future_of_food.html>. 30 Apr 2010. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2010. <http://www.ipcc.ch/>. 20 Apr 2010. Kingwell, Rob. Department of Africulture, Western Australia and University of Western Australia. “Climate change in Australia: agricultural impacts and adaptation.” Australian Agribusiness Review. Vol. 14:2006. <http://www.agrifood.info/review/2006/Kingwell.pdf>. National Science Federation. Global Climate Change. 2002. <http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/>. 15 Mar 2010 Shulze, R.E. and N.J. Walker. “Climate change impacts of agro-ecosystem sustainability across three climate regions in the maize belt of South Africa.” Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. Vol. 124:2008. “South Asia and Climate Change: A Development and Environmental Issue”. The World Bank Group, 2010. <http://go.worldbank.org/0XAV4BYO60>. 26 Apr 2010. Tang, Penny. “Climate Change and Asia’s Rice Supply”. Asia Society Hong Kong Center, 2010. <http://www.asiasociety.org>. 20 Apr 2010. The Academy of Natural Sciences, Asia Center. Climate Change at Hövsgöl ILTER. 2010. 20 Apr 2010.

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