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Representing Influence Activities through System Dynamics

Representing Influence Activities through System Dynamics. Lawrence Dack lawrence.dack@niteworks.net. Jim Sanderson Nicky Schranz Jess Allen Patrick Beautement Lawrence Dack. Representing Influence Activities through System Dynamics. Influence Operations System Dynamics

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Representing Influence Activities through System Dynamics

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  1. Representing Influence Activities through System Dynamics Lawrence Dack lawrence.dack@niteworks.net Jim Sanderson Nicky Schranz Jess Allen Patrick Beautement Lawrence Dack

  2. Representing Influence Activities through System Dynamics Influence Operations System Dynamics SD Models of Influence Observations Questions

  3. Influence Operations • Gen. Stanley McChrystal: “... accomplish three tasks simultaneously: • Influence insurgent-minded individuals to adopt a neutral disposition. • Influence neutral-minded individuals to adopt a supportive disposition. • Retain supportive individuals." • Gen David Petraeus: COMSAF COIN guidance 2nd Aug 2010 24 points, including: • Secure and serve the population • Build relationships • Be a good guest

  4. Afganistan Stability / COIN Dynamics "When we understand that slide, we'll have won the war"

  5. The Case for System Dynamics Need to understand the big picture and dynamic behaviour Levers for change • Constants, parameters, numbers • Regulating negative feedback loops • Driving positive feedback loops • Material flows • Information flows • The rules of the system • The distribution of power over the rules • The goals of the system

  6. Representing Influence (1) – Transition Ops

  7. Representing Influence (2) –The Complex Operating Environment Regions Coalitions Actors Effectiveness Conquest Support tasks Mission Tasks Activities Planning SoDs Interventions Plans Demand Reserves Events Influence Permissiveness Resources Events Consequences Resources Supporters Groups Behaviour Resource Generation Attitudes Actions SoIs QoL Perception Approval Decisions Memory

  8. Critique • COIN Model: • Strengths: Comprehensive scope • Weaknesses: Accessibility, V&V • Threats: Misunderstanding of purpose • TM: • Strengths: Succinct, explainable, instantaneous results • Weaknesses: Structural assumptions hardwired into model, Homogenous actors, packaging and interpretation of results • Threats: Changes to the context • HCCM: • Strengths: Generic, Highly configurable, Can craft bespoke displays • Weaknesses: Hard thought required to create specific model from general case, ‘Iceberg’ logic, More expertise required to use • Threats: Data availability

  9. Concluding Remarks • Influence Operations require: • A broad understanding of complex inter-relationships • Sense-making which goes beyond simple cause-and-effect • Decision-making which balances short and long-term goals, and handles uncertain or incomplete information • System Dynamics models offer: • Clear representation of relationships within the big picture • Evaluation of the impact of feedback and parameter changes • Responsive modelling timescales • Modelling challenges along the way: • Building: Goldilocks options between the specific and the generic, between fidelity, scope and comprehensibility • Running: configuring incomplete knowledge • Exploitation – understanding the significance of what is reported and the appropriate weight to place on it

  10. Representing Influence Activities through System Dynamics Lawrence Dack Lead Modeller Lawrence.dack@niteworks.net Jim Sanderson – Theme lead Nicky Schranz - Architect Jess Allen – Human Factors Patrick Beautement – Complexity ‘guru’ Lawrence Dack - Modeller

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