Assessing Agriculture and Livestock Water Demand in 2025/50: Food Habits, Income Growth and Spatial Pattern

1. Assessing Agriculture and Livestock Water Demand in 2025/50: Food Habits, Income Growth and Spatial Pattern O. P. Singh

2. Introduction… • Irrigated crop production had made significant contribution to total foodgrain production and provided sufficient buffer-stock in the country (Evenson et al., 1999; Kumar, 2003) • ~ 20% increase is attributed to expansion of net cropped area and 80% by crop yield (Bhalla et al., 1999) • Globally, there are two major water-dependent interests, which are in conflict today i.e. “food security” and “ecological security” (Postel, 1996; Falkenmark, 2004) • Researchers in past had made food demand projections for India for 2020 (Kumar, 1998; Rosegrant et al., 1995; Bhalla et al., 1999; Bansil, 1999)

3. Introduction • Population growth in rural and urban area will be the key determinant of growth in demand for food in the country in coming decades (Dyson and Hanchate, 2000) • Higher per capita incomes may increase the demand for non-cereal based food items i.e. fruits, vegetables milk, eggs, fish and meat • Long term NSSO’s data on food consumption pattern suggests that there has been decline in per capita cereal consumption since early 1970s (Bansil, 1999; Rao, 1999; Kumar, 1998; Kumar and Mathur, 1997; Radhakrishna and Ravi, 1992) • Present study is an attempt to assess the state-wise demand of food items and irrigation water for 2025/2050

4. Objectives • To estimate the state-wise current level of food consumption pattern and estimate it for 2025/2050 • To estimate the state-wise livestock feed demand in 2025/2050 • To estimate the state-wise seed/waste and other uses in 2025/2050 • To estimate the state-wise irrigation water requirement to meet the food demand in 2025/2050

5. Major Indian States Covered under Study Punjab Haryana Rajasthan UP Assam Bihar Gujarat MP W. Bengal Orissa Maharashtra AP Karnataka Tamil Nadu Kerala

6. Assumptions… • Self-sufficiency in food demand in 2025/2050 • All food demand will be meet from irrigated crop production • Post harvest losses - 1.1%, 3.0%, 4.6% and 2.2% for rice, wheat, coarse grains and pulses respectively (Kumar, 1998) • Post harvest losses - 20% of fruit and vegetable production • 1.2 kg of cereal based feed required for production of one kg of meet, eggs and 0.12 kg for milk (Bhalla et al. 1999) • One banana, orange, coconut and lemon is equal to 100 grams, 100 grams, 150 grams and 30 grams respectively • Average weight of an egg is equal to the 0.05 kg

7. Assumptions • Paddy contains about 65% rice • Sugarcane contain about 10% sugar • Oilseeds contains about 40% oil • CROPWAT model used for the estimation of crop water requirement • ~ 10% of the total crop water requirement will be conveyance losses • Irrigation water requirement for paddy is ~10213.6 m3/ha (Michael, 2001)

8. Increase in rainfed cultivation Crop Water Requirement Over use of irrigation water for crop Production Food Demand (Cereals, pulses, oilseed, milk, meat, fish, egg, oil, vegetables, fruits and Sugar) Post harvest losses Increase in green fodder demand Per capita food consumption Change in milk production system Growth in rural/ urban population Increase in cereal based animal feed demand Increase in water use for fish farming Increase/decrease in crop based food demand Increase in livestock population Increase in animal based food demand Growth in per capita income Increase in area under fish cultivation Change in food consumption pattern Increase in fish/ meat/egg demand Methodological Framework Total Agricultural Water Requirement

9. Drivers of Food Demand • Population growth • Rate of urbanization • Growth in per capita income • Food consumption pattern • Level of expenditure on food and non-food items • Expenditure pattern on food items • Change in livestock feeding pattern • Indigenous animal to crossbred animals, free grazing to stall feeding • Change in post harvest losses in foodgrains, fruits and vegetables • Import of cereal based feed for animal and poultry

10. Current Food Consumption and Future Demand Projection

11. Future Food Demand Projection under different Scenarios • Scenario–I (well fed India):as recommended by ICMR • Scenario–II (As 1999-2000 level of food consumption): • Cereal consumption pattern • As 1999-2000 level of food consumption • Scenario–III (expenditure pattern on food items): growth in expenditure pattern on food items and their relative price

12. Future Food Demand Projections • Human food demand – 2025/2050 • Cereal demand for animal feed • Change in livestock feed requirement • Import of animal based product • Shift from free grazing to stall feed system • Post harvest losses in foodgrains, vegetables and fruits • Aggregate food demand under different scenarios

13. Assessment of Irrigation Water Requirement for Food Production (Demand Driven Approach)

14. Agricultural Water Requirement • Water requirement for food production • Irrigation water requirement for animal product • Aggregate irrigation water requirement

15. Conclusions and Policy Implications… • Food demand projections are highly depends on the population growth, urbanisation, per capita income, test and preferences • Growth of per capita income along with shifts in consumption patterns leads demand of livestock based products • Increase in the demand of milk, meat, egg and fish would further increase the demand for cereal based feed and finally irrigation water demand • Increase in demand of fish, farmers may convert some farm land into fish pond and may divert irrigation water for fish farming leads to increase agricultural water requirement (Haryana, UP)

16. Conclusions and Policy Implications • Increase in demand of milk and milk products, dairy farmers may shift from free grazing to stall feeding system of milk production and thiswould increase demand of irrigation water for green fodder production • It is required to produce less water intensive milk by using water efficient green fodder with high yielding variety of cattle • by replacing a part of the low yielding bovine population with high milk yielding crossbred animals • India would import virtual water in form of cattle feed from the international market to meet the demand of cereal based feed requirement • India would import virtual water in the form of milk and milk products from the global market • Post harvested losses of fruits and vegetables are very high. It is required to reduce the post harvest losses by introduction of appropriate storage technology

17. Thank you

18. State-wise Projected Population

19. State-wise Projected Urban and Rural Population

20. Growth of Net State Domestic Product (Per cent/Capita/Annum) Compound growth rate during 1980-81 to 1997-98 (constant price)

21. Expenditure on Food and Non-food Items, India

22. Historical Growth of Monthly Per Capita Consumer Expenditure on Food Items, India

23. Recommended Dietary Allowance (Gram/capita/day) Source: Rao et al. (2003:27)

24. Cereal Consumption Pattern in Rural and Urban Area • Rural area • Cereal: -1.45% • Rice: -0.63% • Wheat: -0.94% • Jowar: -8.14% • Bajra: -3.76% • Urban • Cereal: -0.95% • Rice: -0.82% • Wheat: -0.72% • Jowar: -4.08% Source: NSSO

25. Decline in cereal consumption in 1993-94 and 2003 (kg/capita)

26. Food Consumption in Rural and Urban India, (kg/capita/day) *: All milk products are converted into liquid milk Source: based on data provided in NSSO (2001)

27. Food Demand Projections for 2025 and 2051, India (Million Tonnes)

28. Cereal Based Feed Requirement for Animal Based Products, India (Million Tonnes) 1.2 kg cereal requirement for production of meat and eggs and fish 0.12 kg of cereal based feed requirement for milk production (Bhalla et al. 1999)

29. Post harvest losses of cereals, pulses, vegetables and fruits, India (million tonnes) 1.1% for rice, 3.0% for wheat, 4.6% for coarse cereal, 2.2% for pulses, and 20% for fruits and vegetables (Kumar, 1998)

30. Aggregate Projected Food Demand under different Scenarios, India (million tonnes)

31. Irrigation Water Requirement for Food Production (BCM)

32. Irrigation Water Requirement for Animal Based Product, India (BCM)

33. Irrigation Water Requirement for Production of Food Items under Different Scenarios in 2025 and 2050 (BCM)