Economic analysis of coexistence practices in the EU

1. Economic analysis of • coexistence practices in the EU Koen.Dillen@ec.europa.eu

3. Coexistence: an interplay between incentives

4. Coexistence: an interplay between incentives • Coexistence measures should not tip over the balance • Freedom of choice crucial • Coexistence regulations should be designed proportionally to the aim of achieving coexistence • Large isolation distances will tip over the balance

6. Farm level analysis feeds PRICE project

7. Tools • Farm survey • Econometric estimation • Economic welfare model

8. Farm survey: Ideas behind the design • Broad geographical coverage • Ex post and ex ante assessment of coexistence measures • Focusing on both adopters and their non-adopting neighbours • Understanding the impact of coexistence on different farmers: • Small farmers <-> big farmers • Adopters <-> non-adopters • ...

9. Farmer survey • General characteristics of farmers and households • Farmer knowledge, attitudes and perceptions towards novel technologies • Understanding current coexistence measures • Discover novel strategies/practical implementation • Eliciting the perceptions/burden of farmers of commonly discussed coexistence measures

10. Farmer survey: Choice experiment • Hypothetical situation • Choice between scenarios • Attributes remain the same but levels change

13. Spain • Target crop: maize • Target sample unit: • Farmers cultivating Bt maize • Farmers using conventional varieties in the direct vicinity of Bt maize farmers

14. Universe

16. Targeting last sample unit • No list of Bt maize farmers exist, available data based on amount of seed sold in the different provinces • Snowball approach will be used • Stratified sample on the level of adoption in different regions • Via Agricultural Chambers • Via Cooperative • Selling points • Identified Bt maize farmer leads to neighbouring non-Bt maize farmers

17. Sample size • The sample size will be 1000 farmers • Goal of reaching 50% Bt maize and 50% non Bt maize in final sample • Distributed over regions depending on adoption level

18. Survey implementation • Pre-pilot • Revisions • Pilot survey • 160 farmers • Review of questionnaire • Final survey

19. Germany • GM cultivation = outlawed • GM cultivation 2005-2008 mainly maize • # farmers that cultivated GM maize = ±90 • Obligatory registration @ government

20. Sampling strategy • The registrationoffice = PRICE partner • Theysent out a letterwith 2 requests: • A requesttoparticipate • Addressesofpossiblyinterestedneighbors (non GM) • The farmersget a responsecardthatissent back directlytous • Weapproachthefarmersfor an interview (face-to-face)

21. Current status • Letters havebeensent • A reminderhasbeensent • WeworkwithInnoPlanta (farmerorganisation) toincreasetheresponse rate further • Wehopetoincreasethenumberofneighboursbyaskingthefarmers on thephone/spot

22. Response rate overview

23. Interviews • Start: next week • Interviews by German assistants • Let’s wait and see

24. Further steps • Farm survey • Econometric estimation • Economic welfare model

25. Further steps • Farm survey • Econometric estimation • Assess the determinants of production choices • Understand the practical implementation and consequences of coexistence • Put a value on the burden of different coexistence measures • Estimate adoption of GM crops

26. Further steps • Farm survey • Econometric estimation • Economic welfare model • Assess the welfare effect of the predicted adoption on the countries under research

27. Any concepts that are not clear? • Other impacts of coexistence measures we are not covering? • Questions on coexistence that not yet have been addressed? Koen.dillen@ec.europa.eu Thanks for your attention