Download
1 / 12
120 likes | 253 Views
Mohsen Malaki Program and Consulting Manager Communications Group IDC CEMA. Arabcom 2004 in Beirut, Lebanon June 16-17, 2004. MEA & Gulf States Telecom & Mobile. Trends and Outlook. Telecoms Services in MEA MEA is Small on a Global Scale….
E N D
Mohsen Malaki Program and Consulting ManagerCommunications Group IDC CEMA Arabcom 2004 in Beirut, Lebanon June 16-17, 2004 MEA & Gulf StatesTelecom & Mobile Trends and Outlook
Telecoms Services in MEAMEA is Small on a Global Scale… Telecoms Services Spending by Region in 2002 (US$Bn) CEE: $30.6 Bn WE: $224.1 Bn NA: $325.2 Bn AP: $246.0 Bn Gulf States $14.5 Bn MEA: $41.4 Bn LA: $66.6 Bn Gulf States: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Iran Worldwide Total: $934.5 Bn Source: IDC, 2003
Overall Growth Rates Around the World…but MEA has the highest growth rate globally Telecoms Services Spending Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) by Region (03-07) 9.4% 2.9% 3.9% 8.9% 4.9% 9.8% 7.4% Gulf States: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Iran Worldwide Growth: 4.7% Source: IDC, 2004
MEA & Gulf States: Strong GrowthHigh Growth in Fastest Growing Regions $80 $70 CAGR (03-07): 9.8% Total MEA $60 $50 CEE CAGR (03-07): 9.4% USD Billions $40 $30 Gulf States $20 CAGR (03-07): 8.9% $10 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: IDC, 2004
Gulf States Market Size by ServiceVoice Goes Mobile, Data picks Up Telecoms Service Spending, 2003-07 ($Bn) • Weakness in telephony • Voice goes mobile • Data services picking up in fixed-line market • Internet is becoming essential • Broadband is beginning to take off in smaller states • From $14.5bn to $24bn total spending between 2002-2007 Source: IDC, 2004
Smaller Gulf States Under-penetrated Markets Selected MEA Mobile MarketsA Comparative View Mobile Penetration End 2003 • Smaller Gulf States are MEA’s Leading Markets • Approaching subscription saturation • Drives operators to upgrade networks and launch new (data) services • Operators working on customer loyalty, increasing ARPU/ASPS • Less-developed markets • Now entering growth surge • Focus on coverage, voice services, rapid pre-paid expansion Source: IDC, 2004
End User Spending on Mobile ServicesShifting Toward Mobile Data Gulf States Mobile Spending on Voice and Data Services, 2002-2007 ($ Bn) Data Spending Grows Faster Than Voice 31% 26% Data as % of Total 21% Voice Spending Growth Slows 17% 13% 4% Data Spending includes SMS, MMS, data traffic, content Source: IDC, 2003
Impact On Mobile Equipment MarketOpportunities in Both 2G and 2.5G Equipment • Saudi Arabia, Iran, Oman still have huge amount of 2G investment ahead of them (coverage, capacity, 1 new licensee in each during 2004) • The most-developed markets are repositioning investment • These markets are steadily increasing 2.5G capacity (incl. GPRS, EDGE in Kuwait & Bahrain) and services (MMS) • Limited commercial launch of UMTS in UAE & Bahrain, but will be slow to grow in Gulf-- unless there is a sudden success story in UAE/Bahrain or West Europe
Fixed-to-Mobile SubstitutionTraffic is migrating now, displacement soon… Fixed and Mobile Penetration End 2003 • High-Penetration Markets • Mobile substitution -- puts downward pressure on fixed telephony (traffic, connections) • Revenue deterioration in fixed-line telephony • Efforts to expand other services (MDNS, BB) bearing fruit • Low-Connectivity Markets • Matter of time before same effects in Iran, Oman, KSA • Fixed-line operator must act now: cut fixed-line OPEX, improve service quality, focus on data, fixed-mobile Convergence • Leverage carrier services in liberalized market Source: IDC, 2003
Expectations for 2004Liberalization in some, Service Evolution in Others • Iran: • 1 GSM Operator License, 2nd? • Launch of prepaid GSM • Regulator introduced • Introduction of BB DSL • Incumbent investing in data network, mobile coverage, fixed line expansion • Kuwait: • Introduction of EDGE • Competition moves to MMS and mobile data services • Operators continue investing abroad • Qatar: • QTel launches data center and related services • Introduction of MMS and mobile data services • Bahrain: • GSM Competition’s 1st year • Liberalization of IA, data • Regulatory: LLU, NP • Saudi Arabia: • 1 GSM Operator License • 2 Data Infrastructure & Services Licenses • Incumbent focuses on mobile coverage, customer loyalty (CRM), sales channel strategy, carrier services & interconnection • Oman: • 1 GSM Operator License • Reorganization and privatization of incumbent • UAE: • Etisalat introduces UMTS • Testing new mobile data services for enterprise and consumer • BB picks up, Etisalat focuses on SME BB penetration
IDC’s Gulf States CoverageConsulting and Advisory Services • Advisory Services • MEA Telecommunications CIS Subscription Service • MEA IP Services CIS Subscription Service (Planned 2005) • Upcoming Studies: • Gulf States Mobile Communications Services 2004-2008 Forecast • Gulf States Data Communications Services 2004-2008 Forecast • Consulting Services • IDC’s Wireless and Mobile/NGN Expertise Centers provide: • Market sizing, analysis, segmentation • Business plan development • Rating Potential Partners, implementing Partnering Initiative • Go-to-Market, Market Entry
Thank You Mohsen Malaki Program and Consulting Manager Communications Group IDC CEMA E-mail: mmalaki@idc.com Tel.: +420 221 423 140
