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Network Sustainable Development TU Delft 19 February 2009

Solving Energy Strategy Dilemmas. Dr. Ruud Weijermars Opleidingsdirecteur Geotechnologie. Network Sustainable Development TU Delft 19 February 2009. Technology. Ruud Weijermars (Brief CV). Management. 1978, 1983: BSc & Msc University of Amsterdam, Earth Sciences.

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Network Sustainable Development TU Delft 19 February 2009

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  1. Solving Energy Strategy Dilemmas Dr. Ruud Weijermars Opleidingsdirecteur Geotechnologie Network Sustainable Development TU Delft 19 February 2009

  2. Technology Ruud Weijermars (Brief CV) Management • 1978, 1983: BSc & Msc University of Amsterdam, Earth Sciences. • 1984-1998: Research Scientist & Associate Professor in Structural Geology & Tectonics, Assignments in Uppsala University (PhD), ETH Zurich, UT Texas, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals. • Published 60 technical papers; two technical monographs. • 1998-Present: Executive Education. Leadership & Strategy Development for Executives in Upstream & Downstream Energy Business. Clients StatoilHydro in MPBE program; Gasunie in GU2012 program. • 2004-Present: Manage Geotechnology Educational Portfolio (0.5 FTE). • Published >10 papers dedicated to Integrating & Connecting Technology and Management issues. Published 1 book on Corporate IQ. Client driven research focusing on Management optimization techniques. 2

  3. Product Energy Quality of Commons Environment Demand Economy Exploring the Dilemma/Trilemma What are the best Decisions in energy strategy? • Non-linear thinking, with aim to balance the proportions of affected systems (two or more, as in a trilemma or "impossible trinity"). • Trilemma of the Earth - “3E Trilemma”: Optimizing Economy-Energy-Environment System

  4. Product Energy Quality of Commons Environment Demand Economy Exploring the Dilemma/Trilemma What are the best Decisions in energy strategy? • Non-linear thinking, with aim to balance the proportions of affected systems (two or more, as in a trilemma or "impossible trinity"). • Trilemma of the Earth - “3E Trilemma”: Optimizing Economy-Energy-Environment System Energy Crisis Climate Crisis Financial Crisis 4

  5. I=P*A*T (Ehrlich, 1971) I - Impact on Environment P - Population Pressure A – Affluence Level T - Technology ‘Cleanliness’ Ie= S*E*Te (this talk) Ie - Impact on Environment due to Energy consumpt S – Size of Economy, Energy Consumption E – Implicit Burden of Energy Source Te - Energy Technology ‘Cleanliness’ Trilemma Solving Challenge Energy Energy Consumption Rate Environment Impact Rate Economy GDP Growth Rate 5

  6. I=P*A*T (Ehrlich, 1971) I - Impact on Environment P - Population Pressure A – Affluence Level T - Technology ‘Cleanliness’ Ie= S*E*Te (this talk) Ie - Impact on Environment due to Energy consumpt S – Size of Economy, Energy Consumption E – Implicit Burden of Energy Source Te - Energy Technology ‘Cleanliness’ 1 2 3 Trilemma Solving Challenge Energy Energy Consumption Rate Environment Impact Rate Economy GDP Growth Rate 6

  7. 1 Economic Growth Rates • Economic Growth commonly seen as GDP Growth -> • What are GDP drivers? • Demographic trends – age, population size and distribution • Institutional capacity – to allow technology to be implemented • Technology – technological innovation • Needs affordable and stable energy supply • GDP per head increases as affluence grows

  8. $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 1998 US Japan China India Africa Latin America GDP per Head 1990 dollars Fuelled by cheap energy, Technology driven (Steam Engine) Source: Angus Maddison

  9. World GDP grows with Population Numbers Fuelled by cheap energy, technology driven (Steam Engine)

  10. 95% Uncertainty Intervals Updated Population Projections Peaking at 9 Billion IIASA, Lutz et al., 1997, 2001

  11. 1970 3.6 Bill 1980 4.5 Bill 1990 5.3 Bill 2000 6 Bill Global percentage Growth GDP indicates slowing(1960-2003)

  12. IIASA, Lutz et al., 1997, 2001 ? ? Fuelled by cheap energy, technology driven (Steam Engine) Financial Crisis: World GDP stops growing! Assume temporary contraction… World Population Clock http://www.ibiblio.org/lunarbin/worldpop

  13. GDP Growth Effects When people make Money… What do they spent it on?

  14. Growth in Motorized Mobility(km/day per capita, data for France)(1800-2000) Gruebler, 2001

  15. energy use grows with economic development energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2004) – 25 step time series 400 US 350 300 Australia 250 Russia France 200 Japan Ireland S. Korea UK Primary Energy per capita (GJ) 150 100 Malaysia Greece Mexico 50 China Brazil 0 India 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 GDP per capita • Source: UN and DOE EIA • Russia data only for 1992-2004

  16. 2 Energy Consumption Rates • Energy Consumption drivers & choice sources: • Primary supply – availability and acceptability • Final price – fixed costs, transmission & downstream costs, taxes • Versatility & quality – potential applications • Observations • Still dominated by Fossil Energy Resources • Phasing in of alternatives required • Challenges in matching Supply & Demand for Fossil Energy to fill the Transition Gap

  17. World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel 1970-2030 38% History Projections Share of World Total 25% (quadrillion Btu) Oil 24% Coal Natural Gas 8% Renewables 5% Nuclear 2030 International Energy Outlook 2005

  18. Cummulative Production 20 billion barrels (Gb) Expected Production 5 to 7 Gb 140 120 100 80 1st Oil Shock Million tons oil anually 60 1 40 20 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Start & Growth of North Sea Oil ProductionUK Fields

  19. Start & Growth of North Sea Oil ProductionUK Fields Cummulative Production 20 billion barrels (Gb) Expected Production 5 to 7 Gb 140 4 3 120 Real Price 2nd Oil Shock 100 Nominal Price 2 Gb 80 80 2 1st Gulf War 2nd Gulf War 1st Oil Shock Million tons oil anually 60 60 1 40 Nymex Oil Price 40 20 20 0 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

  20. World Oil & Gas Production Trends Natural Gas passing Life-cycle Peak Oil passing Life-cycle Peak

  21. Natural Gas Security & Transportation ChallengesBalance 2010-2020 billion m³ per year Projected Demand Expected Supply 590 - 640 billion m³ per year 525 - 560 Supply Gap 6% 30% Norway 456 Russia 100-120 11% 4% advanced projects 10% 11% 9% other non-EU imports 185-220 8% 24% 21% Algeria EU Central Asia Production 21% 15% Russia 145 15-40 14% 5% 5-10 8% Norway 8% 10% 25-60 12-25 other EU imports 16-35 Netherlands 85-115 33% Middle East 23% National production 15-20 16% Egypt for domestic use Libya 2003 2010 2020 Nigeria Algeria 10% 15% 17% LNG share

  22. Suppliers bargaining power (gas finite and scarcity)

  23. Primary Russian Pipelines to EU But Even Gas is Finite

  24. Heart problems…

  25. Transition from Fossil Energy to Renewable Recources Non-Conventional Oil Potential excluded Renewables Transition Gaps 25

  26. Shift in Relative Share of Primary Energy Carriers(1920-2000 USA Data) 100% 90% Grids Gas Natural Gas 80% 70% 60% Liquids Oil, Bitumen Percent 50% Liquids 40% 30% Solids Coal + Traditional renewables Solids 20% 10% 0% 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

  27. Historic Facts Future Guess Scenario CharacteristicsHalf Millennium Span Ie - Impact on Environment due to Energy consumption S – Primary Energy Total E – Implicit Burden of Energy Source Te - Energy Technology ‘Cleanliness’ Ie= S*E*T

  28. Historic Facts Future Guess Scenario CharacteristicsHalf Millennium Span But where in the Value Chain lies the Real Burden of Impact of each Primary Energy source? Ie - Impact on Environment due to Energy consumption S – Primary Energy Total E – Implicit Burden of Energy Source Te - Energy Technology ‘Cleanliness’ Ie= S*E*T

  29. US Energy Flow -1999Net Primary Resource Consumption 104.3 Exajoules (US takes 25% of Global Energy Consumption!) How does Energy Flow through our Economy? 77.2 104.3 30

  30. What is your share? What can you Do to reduce?

  31. 3 Environmental Impact Rates • Impact drivers: • Ecological footprint growth of industrialization • Population growth • Primary Energy Sources, as mixes shift • Final Energy Conversion Technology • Observations • Our principal focus often neglects Tragedy of Commons • Environment bears the burden of our presence & actions • We need to act • Technological innovation can help improve cleanliness • Improving ESAT is only one step

  32. Acceleration of Fossil Energy Consumption Global Change Crisis Present Focus on CO2 but Sulfur Oxides also Bad for our Health; Nitrogen Oxides

  33. 700 150 600 120 500 2 90 400 million Mt of CO 300 60 200 30 100 0 0 1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030 Oil CO2 emissions Vehicle stock (right axis) Vehicle Stock and Emissions in China China’s vehicle stock alone will quadruple in the next 30 years, leading to a threefold increase in CO2 emissions

  34. China’s Production and Consumption of Coal China’s coal consumption results in 5.5B tons CO2 emissions annually

  35. What do you Think? Exploring the Strategy for reducing Impact of Energy Choices Focus is Energy Technology Innovation Vision of the Future Year 2300 Product Speed of Innovation + Better? + Renewables + Gas +Cil Quality of Commons (+ or - ?) +Coal Wood EnergyTechnology 2200 X billion people Environment 2100 9 billion people 2000 6 billion people 1900 1.6 billion people 1800 1 billion people 0.5 billion people (1500 AD) Demand Economy & Policy

  36. Exploring the Strategy Focus is Energy Technology Innovation David Scott, 2004

  37. Renewables Technology Challenges- Supply & Efficiency Visions - ILLUSTRATIVE 300 Years + • The Far Future • Technologies yet to be discovered New Technologies 20-100 Years Geo-thermal energy • The Medium-Term Future • Technologies yet to be improved Energy Potential Wave Energy Solar Farms 10-20 Years • The Near Future • Technologies in concept development stage Local Power Generation Smart Metering Wind Farms 5-10 Years Solar Water Heaters Transport Efficiency • Tommorow’s Focus • ‘Novel’ Technologies Wind Mills Efficient Lighting Home Insulation Now • Current Focus • Existing, proven technologies • Focus on low-cost / high-impact technologies Solar Panels Conventionals Time 38

  38. Geotechnology Vision for Education (*) • Integrate new research fields (**) into the curricula. • Focus on broad AND deep education; Counter HR potential of emerging countries (BRIC). • Leave pure technocratic fields to emerging countries; aim to educate resource managers. • Further integrate and broaden curricula to make them more relevant & attractive for a wider usergroup. (*) Outcome of Geotechnology Brainstorm Day, 12-01-2009 (**) e.g., Non-Conventionals & Certain Renewables such as Geothermal Energy

  39. DAP - Delft Aardwarmte Project.TuDelft krijgt geothermie Onderzoek B Exploitatie C Operaties Media & PR DUURZAAMHEID 2 km Demonstratie Innovatie A D Onderwijs 2 km • Initiatief van de studenten • 4,9 Miljoen m3 gas per jaar besparing voor TU Delft. • 4000 ton Co2 besparing • Boren in december 2009

  40. Education and student Key in the process. Experiences in the lifetime operation of a geothermal system by Gregory Bahlen (BSc) Geothermal Energy in the TU Delft by Roeland Jan Dijkhuis (BSc) Integrated Reservoir Model by Peter F. Smits (MSc) Drilling hazards for the DAP geothermal wells by Steven Leijnse (BSc) Layering and properties of the Delft Sandstone Formation by Jeroen van Eldert (BSc) Doublet Spacing for the “Delft Aardwarmte Project” by Chris A. den Boer (BSc)

  41. Contact details Delft Aardwarmte Project p/a Mijnbouwkundige Vereeniging Stevin weg 1 2628 CN Delft Nederland Tel +31 (0)15-2782566 Bank: 24.91.74.103 KvK: 27307367 dap@tudelft.nl www.tudelft.nl/dap Sustainable and innovative solutions, integrated in research and education, for CO2 neutral heating using geothermal energy

  42. Extra Slides

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