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Recent Climate Change Modeling Results

Recent Climate Change Modeling Results . Eric Salath é Climate Impacts Group University of Washington. Global Climate Models 20th Century Validation. IPCC Scenarios for Pacific Northwest Climate Change. 2-10°F. 1.5-4°F. 0.5-2°F.

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Recent Climate Change Modeling Results

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  1. Recent Climate Change Modeling Results Eric SalathéClimate Impacts GroupUniversity of Washington

  2. Global Climate Models20th Century Validation

  3. IPCC Scenarios for Pacific Northwest Climate Change 2-10°F 1.5-4°F 0.5-2°F

  4. Projected Annual Climate Change for the Pacific Northwest from Latest IPCC Climate Simulations

  5. Shift in Pacific Storm Track Observed 20th Century Model Composite 21st Century Model Composite Salathé, Geophys Res Lett, 2006

  6. Downscaling

  7. Downscaling Methods Used in CIG Impacts studies Empirical Downscaling • Assumes climate model captures temperature and precipitation trends • Quick: Can do many scenarios • Shares uncertainties with global models • Regional Climate Model • Based on MM5 regional weather model • Represents regional weather processes • May produce local trends not depicted by global models • Additional modeling layer adds bias and uncertainty

  8. Mesoscale Climate Model • Based on MM5 Weather Model • Nested grids 135-45-15 km • Nudging on outermost grid by forcing global model • Advanced land-surface model (NOAH) with interactive deep soil temperature

  9. Potential Surprises • How does loss of snowpack feed back on the climate? • How do changes in the winds affect the local climate? • Are their changes in cloudiness that can affect the local rate of warming?

  10. MM5 Simulations • ECHAM5 global model to force the mesoscale system • 1990-2000 to see how well the system is working • 2020-2030, 2045-2055, 2090-2100Climate Change

  11. 1990s Validation 1990-2000 Mean Surface temperature Gridded Observations MM5 - NCEP Reanalysis MM5 - ECHAM5 January July

  12. Evaluation of Future Runs Because there are some biases in the GCM runs, results for future decades (2020s, 2040s, and 2090s) will be evaluated against the ECHAM5-MM5 1990-2000 baseline

  13. Winter Warming 1990s to 2050s Temperature Change Difference betweenMM5 and ECHAM5 Change in Winter Temperature (degrees C) Change in Winter Temperature (degrees C)

  14. Loss of Snow cover and Warming Snow Cover Change Temperature Change Change in fraction of days with snow cover Change in Winter Temperature (degrees C)

  15. Consistent trend over 21st Century 2020s 2050s 2090s Change in Winter Temperature (degrees C)

  16. MM5 Compared to raw Climate model 2020s 2050s 2090s Change in Winter Temperature (degrees C)

  17. Spring 1990s to 2050s Temperature Change Difference betweenMM5 and ECHAM5 Change in Spring Temperature (degrees C) Change in Spring Temperature (degrees C)

  18. Pressure gradient and Cloud Pressure Change Cloud Change Percent Change in Low Cloud Change in 850-mb Height (m)

  19. Trend over 21st Century 2020s 2050s 2090s Change in Spring Temperature (degrees C)

  20. MM5 Compared to Raw Climate Model 2020s 2050s 2090s Change in Spring Temperature (degrees C)

  21. Winter Trends at Various Stations MM5 - ECHAM5 Temperature Change (°C)

  22. Winter Trends at Various Stations MM5 - ECHAM5 10 IPCC Models Temperature Change (°C) 1950 2000 2050 2100

  23. Summary Projected Pacific Northwest Climate Change warming: 1/4 to 1 ºF/decade Probably more warming in Summer than Winter Precipitation changes uncertain – Possibly wetter winters and drier summers Challenges Deficiencies in Global model propagate to regional model Biases from regional model Mesoscale model simulates different climate signal from global model Loss of snow amplifies warming in Winter and Spring Increased cloud cover in Spring -- reduces effect of snow loss

  24. Applications: Air Quality

  25. Applications: Hydrology

  26. 1990s Validation 1995 Daily Max and Min Temperature at SeaTac MM5 Max Obs Record Max Obs Mean Max Temperature (°F) Obs Mean Min Obs Record Min MM5 Min Day of Year

  27. 21st Century Change

  28. Shift to Northerly Winds Change in Sea-level Pressure Change in Surface Winds

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