Pakistan: Building Climate Resilience

1. Pakistan: Building Climate Resilience Kulsum Ahmed Presentation for the National Planning Commission Islamabad, February 28, 2018

2. Pakistan at 70 years: Climate and Environment • What does the data show? • A menu of possible approaches • Building climate resilience: process and prioritization • Government’s role in generating climate solutions • Financing • Summary

3. Pakistan: Climate data • CO2 emissions per capita are low, but will increase with coal power • 0.896 metric tons /capita (2014) vs • 1.4 metric tons/capita for South Asian countries group • 1.4 metric tons/capita for lower middle-income countries group • 4.97 metric tons/capita for world • High vulnerability to climate change impacts • Among top ten most climate-affected countries of the world (Germanwatch’s Global Climate Risk Index 2015)

4. Pakistan: Some Climate Impacts • Major floods in 2010 (20% land area under water) and 2012 • The last five floods (2010-2014) have resulted in monetary losses of over US$ 18 billion with 38.12 million people affected, 3.45 million houses damaged and 10.63 million acres of crops destroyed (INDC) • 2010 floods in Pakistan affected 4.5 million workers, two-thirds of whom were employed in agriculture, and over 70 percent of farmers lost more than half of their expected income (FAO) • Agricultural sector growth dropped from 3.5% to 0.2% between 2009 and 2010 due to 2010 flood (FAO) • 133 extreme weather events between 1996-2015 (Germanwatch’sClimate Risk Index 2015) • Extreme climate events between 1994 -2013 have resulted in an average annual economic loss of almost US$ 4 billion(NDMA) • 1200 people died in Karachi during unprecedented heat wave in 2015(Pak INDC)

5. Pakistan: Some Climate Projections • Floods and droughts, but variation in glacier melt and Karakoram anomaly (Nathan Forsythe, Hayley J. Fowler, Xiao-Feng Li, Stephen Blenkinsop, David Pritchard. Karakoram temperature and glacial melt driven by regional atmospheric circulation variability. Nature Climate Change, 2017; DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3361) • Increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events • Sea level rise threatening coastal areas (Karachi) • Lethal combination of humidity and heat by late 21st century in Indus river basin (Eun-Soon Im, Jeremy Paal, and ElfatirEltahir, Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia, Science Advances, 02 August 2017, Vol. 3, No. 8) Yet Pakistan has significant diversity in ecosystems and degree of uncertainty with respect to climate impact details

6. Pakistan: Some Environment Impacts • 155,000 deaths attributable to indoor and outdoor air pollution alone in 2012 (WHO) • Correlation between air pollutants and GHGs • Overlap between air pollutants and GHGs (black carbon) • Solid waste management challenges • Landfill gas generation (which includes methane with 32 times global warming potential of CO2) • 39,000 children under five die every year from diarrhea caused by unsafe water and poor sanitation (UNDP) • Diarrheal diseases projected to increase in a climate affected world (WB/Potsdam) • Down from 5,000 m3/capita of water to 1,000 m3/capita today (UNDP) but yet 94% of freshwater withdrawal still used in agriculture (WB) • Very low forest cover (1.9% of land area) affects susceptibility to climate impacts • Direct and indirect cost of environmental degradation annually is 9% of GDP (2005 data, World Bank, 2008, Environmental Health and Child Survival: Epidemiology, Economics, Experiences, Washington DC.)

7. A menu of possible approaches • Tackling climate resiliency head-on vs. the co-benefits approach • NDC focus is on building resilience given low GHG emissions/capita • Pure resiliency focus limits potential climate finance options to water management and efficiency/forestry and land use • Including mitigation opens wider set of options. Also protects against being left behind on energy technology front. E.g. methane from landfills and SWM/black carbon and air quality/transport emissions and air quality • Project focus vs. empowering solutions • Where should government intervene? Incentives/knowledge support versus projects

8. Building climate resilience: process and prioritization • Where are we trying to go? • What do we have already? • What is still missing? • What is government’s role?

9. Where are we trying to go (goals) • Active management of climate risks by government, private sector and personal levels • Climate-integrated approaches to energy, agriculture, water and in cities, optimizing local co-benefits • Ability of citizens to be more resilient to climate impacts (particularly the poor) • Encourage continuous development of climate solutions amongst all stakeholders (youth, private sector, provinces)

10. What we have already…. • External facilitators • UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement • Sustainable Development Goals • Financial investors focus on climate risk • Socially responsible investors • National drivers • SBP Green Banking Guidelines • PBC’s CERB wanting to contribute to SDGs • Existing water and energy crises require efficiency focus • National capacity • Environmental science/engineering degrees offered in 15 Higher Education Institutions • NDMA

11. ..but what is still missing…. • Broad knowledge generation and sharing of climate information/data • People with sufficient understanding of climate impacts • Education and training to solve real world problems (rather than focus on theory) • Taking advantage of Pakistan’s ecosystem diversity to optimize climate solutions • Protecting the poor from climate impacts • Development of green business/tech start ups • Financing • AND a way of measuring progress towards our goals

12. Government’s role in generating climate solutions 1 • Knowledge sharing • Platforms for sharing critical climate related information: extreme heat, heavy rainfall, glacier melt, etc. • NDMA successful example (through cell phones); agricultural extension? • Will facilitate implementation of Green Banking Guidelines and general public awareness • Monitoring progress through indicators of progress towards goals • Efficiency of resource use (air, water) • Local pollution • GHG per capita • Ability to cope with extreme weather • Economic losses from extreme weather events

13. Government’s role in generating climate solutions 2 • Strengthen capacity for climate assessment and solution generation: science, modelling, evidenced-based policy formulation. • Tie up Pakistani universities with srong climate programs in universities and centers abroad (MIT, Berkeley, Grantham, Potsdam, JRC, Tsinghua, etc.) • Encourage private sector to develop climate solutions • Development of green start-ups/businesses (Hackathons, public accelerators) • Resource in efficiency use – linkage with SDGs and GBG • Facilitate provincial action on climate solutions • Use diversity in ecosystems as an advantage by creating a forum for knowledge exchange across provinces, perhaps using Council of Common Interest (e.g. WB’s Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for the Aral Sea Basin model). Start with forests and land management perhaps..

14. Government’s role in generating climate solutions 3 • Government action to help the poor who are most affected (WB’s Shockwaves) • Need for increased climate awareness amongst rural poor e.g. see approach in WB Tajikistan Environment Land Management and Rural Livelihoods Project perhaps adapted to existing national programs • Need for social safety nets for rural poor e.g. incorporate climate within existing cash transfer schemes, such Benazir Income Support Program • Mitigate risk through insurance schemes particularly for poor farmers through participation in IFC’s Global Index Reinsurance Facility, mediated through existing microfinance institutions • Government action: strategic policy and project support • Climate-integrated strategies (perhaps using policy strategic environmental assessment approach) at country level and in key sectors: energy, agriculture and water. Also encourage cities. • “Signature” projects to lead way: (jointly with provinces) LFG to energy from landfills?

15. Financing • External • Carbon funds (now closed) • Climate Investment Funds (MFIs) • Green Climate Fund • Small grants, often city-based (Bloomberg, Rockerfeller, etc.) • Internal • National Climate Fund? (with carbon pollution tax, e.g. on high sulfur fuel oil) • Commercial finance (e.g. IFC’s sustainable energy financing gives step downs in interest already and structure perhaps could be take further by giving premium for active climate risk management)

16. Thank You! Contact: kulsum.ka.ahmed@gmail.com