LWEC Business Advisory Board Building Climate Resilience

1. LWEC Business Advisory BoardBuilding Climate Resilience Dr. Rupert Lewis Deputy DirectorAdapting to Climate ChangeDEFRA, UK

2. Context - experience of impacts Events in recent years, that may become more frequent as the climate changes, have shown us the importance of being prepared • Summer 2003 heat wave in the UK: • 2000 premature deaths • 6 August Thames Water supplied 2603 million litres to London, 300 million litres above average • £400 million in subsidence claims • speed restrictions on rail lines (including the London Underground) and school closures • Summer 2007 floods in the UK: • 55,000+ homes and businesses flooded • 140,000+ homes in Gloucestershire lost water supplies for over a week. • serious damage to many schools in Hull, and major motorways were closed as were many railway stations and lines • cost estimated at around £3 billion

3. Context - experience of impacts Summer 2010 droughts and wildfires in Russia: Wheat prices hit a 22-month high in August 2010 after a severe drought and ensuing wildfires in Russia devastated crops. Prices rose 50% between June and August. • December 2010 in the UK: • According to the Federation of Small Businesses the first cold snap of 2010 cost the UK £600 million per day, with 10% of the work force absent. • January 2011 floods in Australia: • Ratings agency Moody's warns that the cost of worldwide steel production could double because floods have closed several mines and damaged transport routes. Queensland supplies almost half the world's metallurgical coal, and prices rose by $US50 a tonne since flooding started.

4. UK business opportunities • Each £1 spent on adaptation representing 4 times its value in potential damages avoided (Source: OECD 2009 modelling suggests) • On average, every £1 currently invested in new and improved flood risk management assets reduces the long-term cost of flooding and coastal erosion damages by around £8. (Source: EA Long Term Investment Strategy) • Infrastructure UK estimate £200bn per year investment for the next 5 years, with £40bn per year to 2030 needed. • Climate resilience Better R.O.I. • London is the global centre of the £45billion weather derivatives industry. • Helping others adapt – UK opportunities in consultancy, engineering, insurance, financial services (UNFCC looking to mobilise $200bn by 2020).

5. SCIENCE: Models can only account for the warming when they include human induced greenhouse gas emissions Global mean temperature change projections both accounting for and discounting human activity Projections from climate models using natural and anthropogenic factors (GHGs) But the arguments are far from over Observed mean global surface temperature Projections from climate models using just natural (no anthropogenic) factors Source: IPCC (2001) Source: IPCC 2007 5

6. SCIENCE: Owing to past emissions further changes are inevitable but the extent will depend on future emissions IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low World Stabilisation Scenario (peak emissions at 2016 followed by 4%l decrease pa) Global Average Temperatures Global average temperature rise (ºC) Some change is certain Action can be taken now to adapt to the residual risks 6

7. Summer average temperature www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation 2 to 3ºC increase 3 to 4ºC increase Unlikely to be less than 2.00C or greater than 6.40C for SE 2080s 4 to 5ºCincrease But we could see 5 times the number of very hot days & the hottest day of the year could be up to 10ºC higher South-East England central estimate Medium emissions 7

8. Observed temperatures Simulated temperatures 2060s 2040s 2003 Source Met Office Hadley Centre Summer Temperatures in context www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation We are already committed to this from past emissions alone 35 000 people died across Northern Europe in the August heat-wave of 2003 – effective planning is essential

9. SCIENCE: Modelling of climate change for the UK projects warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers Winter rainfall Summer rainfall 2080s 2080s Regional differences mean the south and coastal areas could have the greatest impact Regional differences mean the south and coastal areas will have the greatest impact Wider range is -56% to +13% Wider range is -4% to +67% Map and boxes show central estimates under a medium emissions scenario. “Wider range” is low emissions (10%) to high emissions (90%) range. 9

10. Sea level rise www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation Central Estimate Possible Outcome High++ scenario: 2100 Rises up to 1.9 m 10

11. CCRA – additional research The Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) • National Risk Assessment required (under Climate Change Act) to be delivered to Parliament by Jan 2012. Will then be updated every 5 years. • Will provide evidence / analysis that will enable UK to: • understand risks • compare climate risks with other pressures • prioritise by sector / place • assess costs and benefits of actions • Part of the Risk Assessment includes an Economic Analysis: • estimates a "price-tag" of adaptation • identifies areas where action is most beneficial

12. ADAPTATION: Decisions are being taken now that will affect our vulnerability to the future climate Actions should be focussed on influencing decisions that meet the following three criteria • Success will be the cumulative result of influencing the right actions being made by diverse groups for differing reasons. For example... • Natural Environment White Paper • £40-50bn pa investment in economic infrastructure to 2030 needed • Location and design of new houses will affect future flood risk • £48bn central government capital investment • Network Rail propose £34bn investment over the next 5 year Rationale for intervention Is there a clear case for the state to act? Scale of impact What are the costs of making decisions that fail to account for the effects of climate change? Urgency of decision What are the costs of delaying for 5 years – is there a risk of irreversible losses?   ACT  12

13. Government Priorities ‘Tackling and adapting to climate change is a top priority for this Government – at home and internationally.’ Secretary of State for Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Sept 2010 High level Government direction across all policies • Big Society • Horizon shift • Localism • Control Shift Priorities for adaptation to climate change: The UK Government’s adaptation strategy therefore focuses on: • developing and promoting take up of a high quality evidence base • facilitating and co-ordinating action at national and local levels • embedding adaptation in policies and systems

14. Questions for the Board • Does the BAB have any questions to clarify the topic of ‘Adaptation’? • Are there aspects of ‘Adaptation’ that BAB would like to hear more about or discuss further at the next meeting? • Would the BAB be willing to consult with internal colleagues in preparation for the April meeting? • What are the barriers to business building climate resilience? • What are the barriers to businesses seizing opportunities to adapt and to helping others adapt? • How can Defra work with the BAB to further LWEC’s adaptation interests?

15. Links • The Climate Change Risk Assessment: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/adaptation/assess-risk.htm • Government systems, including the Green Book Guidance and infrastructure http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/programme/government-systems.htm • The role of Government, and the economic analysis paper on the role of Government http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/adaptation/government-role.htm • The UK Climate Projections 2009 http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/adaptation/how.htm • UK Climate Impacts Programme http://www.ukcip.org.uk/