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Shrinkage Forum 22 January 2014

Shrinkage Forum 22 January 2014. Roy Malin. 2014/15 Shrinkage Proposals. Initial proposals issued December 2013 Proposed Shrinkage Quantities calculated using two versions of the leakage model: V1.3 Original Model V1.4 Includes LP Service Modification

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Shrinkage Forum 22 January 2014

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  1. Shrinkage Forum 22 January 2014 Roy Malin

  2. 2014/15 Shrinkage Proposals • Initial proposals issued December 2013 • Proposed Shrinkage Quantities calculated using two versions of the leakage model: • V1.3 Original Model • V1.4 Includes LP Service Modification • As agreed at the 10 December 2012 Shrinkage Forum, National Grid proposed and applied the revised model for 2013/14 in anticipation of the model change being approved • Still expect model change to be approved • Need to agree the leakage model basis for 2014/15 proposals

  3. 2014/15 Shrinkage Proposals (GWh)

  4. LP Service Modification • Consultation issued August 2013 • Report on consultation sent to Ofgem for approval – October 2013 • Concerns • NGN and WWU data not independently verified • Variance of impact between LDZS • NGN and WWU will be commissioning an independent review of their leakage models and proposed baseline changes • Variance analysis

  5. LP Service Modification Variance Analysis (1)

  6. LP Service Modification Variance Analysis (2) • Published impact is the difference between v1.3 and v1.4 leakage models using 2010/11 data • Necessary to normalise for: • Length of Metallic Main • Average System Pressure • Used an LDZ average • Actual impact will depend on the combination of the individual low pressure networks’ ASP and metallic mains lengths • Calorific Value

  7. LP Service Modification Variance Analysis (3)

  8. AGI Venting IFI Update • Currently, National Grid procure 84GWh for AGI Venting • We were expecting a venting value of approximately 130GWh • Report Received January 2014 • National Grid venting from pneumatic control equipment • 17+/-5.1 GWh • Concerns over robustness of site/equipment inventory • Intention to commission DNV GL carryout a site inventory of National Grid’s pneumatic control equipment

  9. Review of SLM Review Consultations • Consultations issued by each DN November/December 2013 • Two responses – British Gas and Scottish Power • Intend to issue a Joint DN Report on the consultation • Subject to agreement, future SLM Reviews and Consultations to be a joint DN process • Agree with stakeholders and Ofgem

  10. Outcome of SLM Review Consultations • Issues/areas for development • The level of detail included within the SLM Review; • The requirement to review the low pressure leakage rates, and in particular whether this would be cost-effective; • Continued development of Theft of Gas detection and resolution; • Further clarification of the Own Use Gas estimation; • How the industry deals with CSEP Shrinkage; • The level of detail provided regarding the ‘activity factors’ driving the shrinkage estimation, e.g. mains replacement and pressure management.

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