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Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia http://web.missouri.edu/~p

2011 Midwest/Great Plains & Western Outlook Conference. Hog & Pork Outlook Louisville, August 15-16. Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia http://web.missouri.edu/~plainr/. Annual U.S. Pork Production, 1930-2011.

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Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia http://web.missouri.edu/~p

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  1. 2011 Midwest/Great Plains & Western Outlook Conference Hog & Pork Outlook Louisville, August 15-16 Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia http://web.missouri.edu/~plainr/

  2. Annual U.S. Pork Production, 1930-2011 2011 U.S. pork production expected to be on trend

  3. Cost of Production

  4. Corn, Average Price Received, Monthly, 1987-2011 Source: USDA/NASS

  5. Cost of Slaughter Hog ProductionIowa State University Calculations, 1987-2011 Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

  6. Corn Price & Cost of Hog ProductionMonthly, 1987-2011 Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

  7. Corn Price & Cost of Hog ProductionMonthly, 1987-2011 $6.70 corn implies hog cost at $68/cwt live or $89/cwt car. Source: Shane Ellis, Iowa State University

  8. Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 1997-2011 Source: Shane Ellis, Iowa State University

  9. Monthly Profit Per Pig Source: Shane Ellis, Iowa State University

  10. International Trade

  11. U.S. Meat Exports, 2000-2011

  12. U.S. Pork Imports & Exports, 2000-2011

  13. U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork Production, 2006-2011

  14. U.S. Pork Exports, 2006-2011

  15. Frozen Pork & U.S. Pork Exports, 2000-2011

  16. Meat Demand

  17. Source: USDA/ERS

  18. Source: USDA/ERS

  19. Forecast Change in Meat Production --Percent Change-- Type 2010-11 2011-12 Beef - 0.7% - 4.3% Pork +1.0% +1.6% Chicken +1.3% +1.0% Turkey +2.4% +0.4% All Meats +0.7% - 0.4% Source: USDA-OCE WASDE, August 2011

  20. Change in Retail Meat DemandBase Elasticity = - 0.75 Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri

  21. Change in Pork DemandBase Elasticity = - 0.75 Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri

  22. Change in Pork Export DemandBase Elasticity = - 0.5 Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri

  23. Change in Hog DemandBase Elasticity = - 0.2 Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri

  24. Retail Boneless Pork PricesRetail Prices, Monthly, 2001-2011 Source: USDA/ERS

  25. Growth in Real GDP Source: U.S. Commerce Department

  26. U.S. Unemployment Rate,Seasonally Adjusted, 1996-2011 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  27. Average Duration of Unemployment

  28. Current Situation The government is broke, unemployment is high, the stock market has collapsed, the economy is barely growing, and consumer confidence is the lowest since May 1980. Needless to say, this is not good for domestic meat demand.

  29. Inventory Surveys

  30. Hog Inventory Reports U.S. June Canada April

  31. Hog Inventory Reports U.S. June Canada April Which is important? More sows or fewer litters?

  32. Daily Hog Slaughter by Quarter

  33. Breeding Herd by Quarter

  34. Hog Slaughter & Breeding Herd by Quarter Correlation = 0.20

  35. Sows Farrowed by Quarter

  36. Sows Farrowed & Hog Slaughter by Quarter Correlation = 0.78

  37. U.S. Sows Farrowed by Quarter

  38. Canada Sows Farrowed by Quarter

  39. Sows Farrowed-U.S. & Canada Combined

  40. Slaughter

  41. 2011 sow slaughter is down 0.2% Source: USDA/AMS

  42. 2011 slaughter of U.S. sows is up 2.8% Source: USDA/AMS

  43. Source: USDA/AMS & Ron Plain

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