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Forecasting Wind Farm Component Failures and Availability Post-Warranty

Forecasting Wind Farm Component Failures and Availability Post-Warranty. Steve Buckley. Team Leader, Wind Consultancy. Key Message. Limited historic data available – forecasting availability and costs is an inexact science

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Forecasting Wind Farm Component Failures and Availability Post-Warranty

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  1. Forecasting Wind Farm Component Failures and Availability Post-Warranty Steve Buckley Team Leader, Wind Consultancy

  2. Key Message • Limited historic data available – forecasting availability and costs is an inexact science • Historic data can be used to help inform the O&M and condition monitoring strategy • Experience with two older wind farms demonstrates how refined forecasts can improve on generalised assumptions

  3. Background • What are the post warranty O&M options? • Extend existing contract • 3rd party provider • Scheduled O&M only • Scheduled O&M plus minor unscheduled O&M • Full service O&M (scheduled + unscheduled) • How to decide which option is most appropriate?

  4. Using Existing Data • Larger WTGs less reliable but lower downtime • Electronics are a significant cause of failures • Drivetrain failures rarer but cause significant downtime • Failure rates increase with higher wind speeds • Sources of data e.g.: • ReliaWind/Supergen Wind • Upwind • IEST/Windstats etc.

  5. Calculating Sculpted Availability and Costs

  6. Experience With Two Older Wind Farms • Bathtub curve? • Learning • Pitch system • Gearbox • Generator • Electrical • SCADA

  7. Experience With Two Older Wind Farms • Bathtub curve? • Pitch system • Yaw system • General WTG

  8. Linking Historic Data with Condition Monitoring • When to use condition monitoring • Where to target condition monitoring • Using condition monitoring data to inform maintenance options • Using historic data to inform condition monitoring strategy

  9. Key Message • Limited historic data available – forecasting availability and costs is an inexact science • Historic data can be used to help inform the O&M and condition monitoring strategy • Experience with two older wind farms demonstrates how refined forecasts can improve on generalised assumptions

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