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The Global Pharmaceutical Industry (MNC & Generic) in Transition

The Global Pharmaceutical Industry (MNC & Generic) in Transition. Dr. Brian W Tempest www.briantempest.com The Global Generic Summit – Barcelona, Spain 5 th March 2009. Healthcare pressures out to 2050. GDP Decline & Economic Melt Down. Public Health Reform Continues. Rising R&D Budgets.

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The Global Pharmaceutical Industry (MNC & Generic) in Transition

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  1. The Global Pharmaceutical Industry(MNC & Generic) in Transition Dr. Brian W Tempest www.briantempest.com The Global Generic Summit – Barcelona, Spain 5th March 2009

  2. Healthcare pressures out to 2050

  3. GDP Decline & Economic Melt Down

  4. Public Health Reform Continues

  5. Rising R&D Budgets

  6. Big Pharma Sales Cocentration

  7. But the Product Pipeline..

  8. Mergers Don’t Produce Synergy

  9. Patent Expiry Dates Expiry 2010 Expiry 2011 Expiry 2012 Company % at Risk Sources: AXA Framlington

  10. USA New Brand Products

  11. Sector Enquiry – R&D expenses

  12. 45,000 Pharma Jobs

  13. Big Pharma in Transition double digit growth to single growth focus on 7 developed markets to 7 emerging markets primary care to specialists, small molecules to biotech EU Sector Enquiry a slump in R&D innovation - the next 5 years being similar $84b patent expiries in 2010, 2011, 2012 15 out of 18 top companies have announced restructuring

  14. 82% of the World population accounts for only 12% of the Global Pharma sales • Sources: • IMS Midas, March 2005 • Earth Trend Data Tables 2005

  15. Generic Industry Consolidation

  16. The Asian Race to Prosperity

  17. Indian Healthcare’s 1987 Companies

  18. The Education Advantage

  19. India – USA Expansion

  20. Chinese Healthcare 3751 Companies

  21. China Global Generic Companies

  22. Japan - Generics supported by Gov

  23. Generic Companies in Transition Competition is rising, India feels confidant and strong A number of major European Generic Companies for sale Focus in the hospital Injectables sector First Chinese ANDA Branded-Generic FTC deals are growing M&A – 5 big pharma evaluating generic targets Indian Manufacturing units to double from 2000 to 2010

  24. % Share of Global Growth – IMS

  25. Top 5 Global Pharma Markets 2020 Sources: Goldman Sachs 2007

  26. Germany – Payers Contracting

  27. Number of Almus Suppliers

  28. USA – A New President

  29. A New World Order

  30. Pharma Markets in Transition KSR vs. Teleflex USA Supreme Court decision USA Bilateral FTAs amended –Columbia, Peru, Panama Compulsory Licensing by Thailand, Canada under WTO German reimbursement review, UK PPRS, Poland, Hungary FDA setting up offices in China , India, ME, SA, EU Brazil generics booming , Japan generics rising Impact of wholesaler brands and pharmacy chains West Europe vs. Central/East Europe vs. South Europe

  31. In this Era of Transition & Change for Big Pharma, Generics & Markets there is a Serious Search for Profitable Sectors and Profitable Competitive Strategies

  32. The Tempest Crystal Ball • India will continue to be a Key Driver in the Global Generic Industry • Competition is rising – Post TRIPs Indian companies will evolve • Discovery companies will continue to be attracted to India for CT, EDC, MO. China will be perceived to be stronger in biology/ tox • IP changes in US, EU & Developing World will slowly favor Generics • Alliances between Western Biotech and Asians companies will expand. M&A PE deals will grow • How to use Asia will become the key opportunity

  33. Thank You

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