The Transition to a Life Beyond Oil Peak Oil, Climate Change and Transition Towns

1. The Transition to a Life Beyond OilPeak Oil, Climate Change and Transition Towns

2. Oil dependency Oil currently accounts for about • 43% of the world’s total fuel consumption • 95% of global energy used for transportation.

3. Oil is used for …… …. almost everything

4. Food production • 95% of our food products require the use of oil, and the supply of food accounts for 21% of Britain’s energy use • 3.5 litres of oil is needed to produce half a kilogram of steak Guardian 7th April 2007

5. RENEWABLE RESOURCES:FARMING – FISHERIES – FORESTRYSUSTAINABLE IF RESPONSIBLY MANAGEDRENEWAL TIME: YEARS TO DECADES NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES:COAL – OIL – GAS …….. STRICTLY FINITE, HOWEVER MANAGEDRENEWAL TIME: MILLIONS OF YEARS Natural Resources

6. What is Peak Oil?

7. Two typical oil fields Forties field UK sector North Sea Prudhoe Bay, Alaska

8. Oil production for four countries USA Russia Egypt Indonesia

9. The North Sea Peak to Peak - 27 years Peaked in 1999

10. World discovery peaked 40 years ago

11. When is the global oil peak?

12. World Production Stalls World Supply 85.3 mb / day in 2006 85.2 mb/day to Oct 2007 World Demand 85.9 mb/day in 2007 projected to increase to 88 mb/day in 2008 Source: International Energy Agency Oct 2007

13. Prices rise

14. Oil producers (98)

15. Post peak oil producers (64)

17. Why is oil so important?How many men does it take to push a car?

18. Atank of petrol contains 8,000 human hours work! • If you worked for 24 hrs/day, 52 weeks a year, 7 days a week that equates to about 4 years’ work. • (If you imagine pushing a car 250 miles into a hurricane – at 70mph it would take a year for teams of 4 people to be constantly pushing the car to do the same work as one tank full) • 95% of our transport is fuelled by oil. There is no replacement that is as convenient, high density, and safe.

19. Gas is also a non-renewable resource Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil

20. “Humanity is approaching an unprecedented crisis when not enough oil and gas will be produced to keep industrial civilisation running...” The opening paragraph of the Independent’s Environment Correspondent Geoffrey Lean on the IEA Report (The Independent July 10th 07)

21. Common Symptoms Include • Clammy Palms / Nausea/ Mild Palpitations • Denial • A Sense of Bewilderment and Unreality • An Irrational Grasping at Unfeasible Solutions • Fear • Outbreaks of Nihilism / Survivalism. • Exuberant Optimism. • “I Always Told You So” Syndrome. Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil Awareness (Post-petroleum stress disorder)

23. CO2 levels over the past 60000 years

24. The need for an urgent response

26. Vehicle Transport – are we asking the right questions? Running the UK’s cars, buses and lorries on biodiesel needs 25.9 million hectares of arable land. UK has 5.7 million hectares of arable land. 800 million malnourished people in the world. From: Monbiot, G. (2006) Heat. How to Stop the Planet Burning. Penguin.

27. Hydrogen? Running the UK’s cars on hydrogen would necessitate; • 67 Sizewell B nuclear power stations • a solar array covering every inch of Norfolk and Derbyshire combined • or a wind farm bigger than the entire southwest region of England. From “The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan

28. Relocalisation “…localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative” David Fleming

29. Responses to Peak Oil & Climate Change PEAK OIL The need for an urgent response • Burn everything! • relaxed drilling regulations • biofuels • tar sands and non-conventional oils • Resource nationalism • Resource Wars P O + C C = Systems Re-think • Planned Relocalisation • Energy Descent Pathways • Local Resilience CLIMATE CHANGE • Climate engineering • Carbon capture and storage • International emissions trading • Climate adaptation • Nuclear power

30. 1930’s Visions of the Future

31. We need to address our collective inability to vision the future we actually want….

32. One possible vision……

33. What might peak oil look like?

34. Food - Urban Gardens in Cuba Downtown Havana

35. The Modernized Agrarian - Cuba

36. Rooftop Gardening

37. Your Town in 2012? Edible roofs Tree crops

38. The 4 Recognitions of the Transition Movement. • Life with less energy is inevitable and it is better to plan for it than be taken by surprise • We have lost the resilience to be able to cope with energy shocks • We have to act for ourselves and we have to act now • By unleashing the collective genius of the community we can design ways of living that are more enriching, satisfying and connected than the present.

39. The 12 Steps of Transition

40. Step 1:Form a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Outset.

41. Step 2: Raising awareness – talks and films

42. Step 3: Engaging with existing groups – Collaborate where possibleCo-operation, not competition.

43. Working with BusinessOil Vulnerability Analysis. • Working with Local Landowners

44. Step 4.The Official Unleashing “Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

45. Step 5:Form Working Groups. Up and Running in Totnes Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / Housing In formation; Education, Youth, Transport.

46. Step 6:Use Open Space Technology.

47. Step 7:Develop Visible Manifestations of the Project. “Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.

48. The Totnes Local Food Directory.

49. The Totnes Pound

50. Transition Tales