A Structured Decision Support System For Flood Mitigation Raymond Laine

1. A Structured Decision Support System For Flood Mitigation Raymond Laine 2011 ASFPM National Conference

2. Welcome • Australia’s recent floods • The Australian floodplain risk management process • Decision support system for flood management? • FLODSS • Case study / application • Limitations • Conclusion

4. La Niña & SOI valuesthis year

6. Flooding in Australia Wollongong, NSW 2011 ($1m) 2011= $5.6 b + Brisbane, QLD 2011 ($3.9b) Victoria 2011 ($676m)

7. Damages applied to US • "The best preliminary estimate of the direct cost to the federal budget of the summer's flood disaster is A$5.6bn” Julia Gillard (Australian Prime Minister) • 5,600,000,000 (Damage) / 21,874,000 (Australian Population)= $256 damage per person$256 (Damage Per person) X 307,006,000 (US Population)= $78,593,000,000 damageSince January 2011

8. The Australian FMP Process Floodplain Management in Australia: Principles and Guidelines (SCRAM 2000)

9. The New South Wales FMP Process • Balanced plans deal with existing, future & continuing flood risk • Take a long term viewpoint consider - future development • Strategies & climate change • Aim to achieve long term community goals

10. Proposed FMP Process

11. Flood Management Options

12. Property Management Options

13. Response Management Options

14. Why DSS in Flood Mitigation? • Floodplain risk management requires a robust understanding of flood risk and a comprehensive knowledge of flood management options • But • Quick staff changeover rates • & Retiring workforce • = • Loss of heuristic and organizational knowledge • & • Limited understanding of flood risk and flood management measures∴Continually relying on external experts

15. Decision Support System in Flood Mitigation • Identify, examine and explore management options for floodplain management • Transparent process • Structured confirmation • Centralised repository • Education and training • Flexibility to adapted to suit organizational and/ orstakeholder requirements

16. What is a Decision Support System (DSS)? “An informed system whose primary purpose is to provide workers with information on which to base informed decisions” (Mallach 1994) “A DSS is a system that can lend support to decision makers involved in solving problems of some complexity” (Srinivasan et al 2000) “DSS provides support for decision makers mainly in a semi-structured and unstructured situation by bringing together human Judgement and computerised information” (Turban 2001) “An interactive computer based system that utilises a model to identify and draw upon relevant data in order to aid decision making” (Lemass 2004)

17. What is a Decision Support System (DSS)? “An informed system whose primary purpose is to provide workers with information on which to base informed decisions” (Mallach 1994) “A DSS is a system that can lend support to decision makers involved in solving problems of some complexity” (Srinivasan et al 2000) “DSS provides support for decision makers mainly in a semi-structured and unstructured situation by bringing together human Judgement and computerised information” (Turban 2001) “An interactive computer based system that utilises a model to identify and draw upon relevant data in order to aid decision making” (Lemass 2004)

18. Previous Applications • Flood hazard mapping (FLOOD DSS, HAZUS etc.) • Flood response routing (GCC, River Thames etc.) • Water Quality (WATERCAST etc.) • Aquatic ecological models (CAEDYM etc.) • Water Sensitive Urban Design (MUSIC etc.) • Forest Dynamics (SORTIE etc.) • Soil and water models (SWIM etc.) • ...etc.

19. Decision Support System Application Flood Study • Understand the Flood Behaviour & What Controls it (Flood and Hazard Maps) Management Study • Understand the Local Impacts of Flooding on People, Property & Infrastructure • Identify the Options Available to Manage Risk • Assess, Compare & Decide on Options • Determine How these Can Be Implemented Management Plan • How to Implement & Fund Options Robust Solutions need to Consider Long Term Catchment Conditions including the Environment, Development and Climate Change. NEED to INVOLVE COMMUNITY CONSULTATION

20. Decision Support System Application Flood Study • Understand the Flood Behaviour & What Controls it (Flood and Hazard Maps) Management Study • Understand the Local Impacts of Flooding on People, Property & Infrastructure • Identify the Options Available to Manage Risk • Assess, Compare & Decide on Options • Determine How these Can Be Implemented Management Plan • How to Implement & Fund Options Robust solutions need to consider long term catchment conditions including the environment, development and Climate change. NEED to INVOLVE COMMUNITY CONSULTATION

21. The system: FLODSS Start Selection of management measure Property management measures Flood management measures Response management measures Select input measures Select input measures Investigate measures Constraint weighting Constraint weighting Recommendation Recommendation Help Detailed management measure review

23. The system: FLODSS

24. Step 2: Management option selection

25. Step 2: Management option selection

26. Fact sheet example

27. Step 3: Constraint weighting

28. Step 4: Recommendation

29. Its application: Cooma case study • 400 km south west of Sydney • 800m. above sea level • Population of 8000 • Floods in 1956, 1961, 1969, 1991 and 2007 • Inundation common • Limited flood warning time • Erosion and sedimentation problems in the catchment

30. Its application: Cooma case study

31. FLODSS: Step 1

32. FLODSS: Step 2

33. FLODSS: Step 3

34. FLODSS: Step 4

35. Cooma Results

36. Limitations • The DSS can’t: • Determine the “BEST” option • Replace the need for decision makers • Prevent the actions of a poor decision maker • Provide detailed option applicability or placementThe system is based on case-based reasoning, as a result It has been hard to quantify some constraints (i.e. Social and Political)Plans are underway to further investigate such constraints, to increase the certainty of the system results

37. Conclusion • Identify, examine and explore management options for floodplain management • Transparent process • Structured confirmation • Centralised repository • Educate and train • Flexibility to adapted to suit organizational and/ orstakeholder requirements

38. Questions?Contact: Ray Laine rtl103@uow.edu.au