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CPP Environmental Scan Academic Senate March 12, 2008

CPP Environmental Scan Academic Senate March 12, 2008. Implications for Strategic Planning Presenter: Don Coan surveyresearch@cox.net. Presentation Outline. College-age population and demographic trends California’s economy and budget outlook New student enrollment demand

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CPP Environmental Scan Academic Senate March 12, 2008

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  1. CPP Environmental ScanAcademic SenateMarch 12, 2008 Implications for Strategic Planning Presenter: Don Coan surveyresearch@cox.net

  2. Presentation Outline • College-age population and demographic trends • California’s economy and budget outlook • New student enrollment demand • Job growth projections • Strategic opportunities and challenges • Q & A

  3. Demographic Trends of College-Age Population Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties

  4. The college-age (18 to 24) population will grow more slowly beginning in 2011

  5. Hispanic is the largest and fastest growing population group among 18 - 24 year olds Region will add over 0.5M persons of college-age

  6. Hispanic will comprise almost 60% of college-age (18 - 24) population in 2016 Population = 2.1 Million

  7. More undergraduate women than men are enrolling in college nationally; the gender gap will continue to widen Similar historical trend found in CSU

  8. CPP enrolls more undergraduate men than women; gender gap has widened

  9. Implications of demographic trends • Slower enrollment growth • Decline in first-time freshmen enrollment • Increased need for academic support services • Opportunity to attract more women into science and technology

  10. The California Economy The Fiscal Crisis and Budget Outlook

  11. California budget is in crisis • $17B estimated budget shortfall • Slower economic growth is projected through 2009 • $312M proposed budget cut in 2008-09 for CSU • CSU response to the budget cut: reduce or stabilize enrollments

  12. Implications of the CA economy and budget • Slower enrollment growth until budget crisis is resolved • Challenge to meet academic needs of students with less state support • Need to increase funding of campus operations from other revenue sources (voluntary support; grants and contracts)

  13. Enrollment Demand and Institutional Competition Projections of New Student Demand to 2015

  14. First-time freshmen demand is projected to decline 7.3% between 2007 and 2016 W/O Controls With Controls Fall 2007 (actual) = 3,554 (CA only)

  15. New undergraduate transfer demand is projected to increase 12.5% between 2006 and 2010 and then begins to level off Fall 2007 (actual) = 1,398

  16. New graduate student demand is projected to increase 33.5% between 2006 and 2015 Fall 2007 (actual) = 579

  17. Top 10 Institutional Competitors for Students at “High Ability” Feeder High Schools

  18. Implications of enrollment demand • Potential for enrollment decline in the short-term • Slow/weak enrollment growth over the next several years • Opportunity to expand graduate programs • Challenge to compete for higher ability students

  19. Regional Job Growth Projections: 2004 to 2014 Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino Counties

  20. Projected Job Growth in Broad Fields of Study Corresponding to Colleges (2004 - 2014)

  21. Projected Job Growth in Agriculture Occupations Linked to Majors (2004 - 2014)

  22. Projected Job Growth in Environmental Design Occupations Linked to Majors (2004 – 2014)

  23. Projected Job Growth in Hospitality Occupations (2004 - 2014)

  24. Projected Job Growth in Engineering Occupations Linked to Majors (2004 - 2014)

  25. Projected Job Growth in Letters, Arts and Social Science Occupations Linked to Majors (2004 - 2014)

  26. Projected Job Growth in Science Occupations Linked to Majors (2004 – 2014)

  27. Projected Job Growth in Education Occupations (2004 – 2014)

  28. Projected Job Growth in Business Occupations Linked to Majors (2004 - 2014)

  29. 12 Fastest “Job Growth” Majors: (2004 – 2014)

  30. Implications of employment projections • Long term job prospects in most fields of study are favorable • Short term job prospects may be depressed by a weakening economy • Highest job growth potential exists in fields of business, education, science, and letters

  31. Conclusions Strategic Challenges and Opportunities

  32. Strategic Challenges • How to maintain/enhance the quality of academic programs in a time of fiscal constraint • How to attract higher ability students in an increasingly competitive environment • How to serve more under prepared students • How to adjust/adapt/prioritize programs in light of slowing enrollment growth

  33. Strategic Opportunities • Expand and nourish graduate programs • Increase degree productivity in fields and majors linked to job growth (e.g., Business, Education, Science, and Letters) • Brand the institution as a place that offers more women with educational opportunities to pursue science and math careers • Increase the educational attainment of Hispanic students and other racial minorities

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