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Negative Campaign Ads: Effects and Lessons Learned

Explore the impact and repercussions of negative campaign ads in political elections. Analyze classic examples, voter responses, and the potential consequences for candidates involved.

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Negative Campaign Ads: Effects and Lessons Learned

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  1. Negative Ads • What make an ad “negative”? • Are they always bad / wrong? • How (why) do voters respond to such ads?

  2. Ads 2008, 2012 2008 2012 House 685,000 spots $428 million Senate 925,000 spots $545 million President 1,431,000 spots $1.92 billion • House • 571,000 spots • $244 million • Senate • 578,000 spots • $217 million • President • 1,135,000 spots • $1.06 billion

  3. Geography of spending

  4. Partisan differences

  5. Increasingly negative

  6. Negative Campaign Ads • As a strategy • Classic examples • What lessons • Always wrong? • What effects? • Turnout • Voter opinions • Blow-back

  7. Stanford experiments, 1990s • http://pcl.stanford.edu/common/docs/research/iyengar/1996/goingneg.html

  8. Negative Campaign Ads • Classic examples • Begs questions: • What is negative? • What is unfair?

  9. Negative Campaigns • Classic examples • LBJ Daisy Girl ad • 1964 vs. Barry Goldwater Ad • Just once • What are voters supposed to hear? • What did they hear? • Vote LBJ, or they’ll nuke your kid

  10. 1964 & Goldwater • Daisey Girl • Ice Cream • KKK • Convention • East coast

  11. 1964 & Goldwater • Would Goldwater have lost anyway? • Economy strong • Incumbent popular • LBJ also running positive ads • Nation at war • Goldwater did say those things

  12. Negative Campaigns • Classic Examples • Willie Horton • 1988 Bush I vs. Dukakis • Lee Atwater… “only question, which hand” • Just once (or twice) • How define candidate? • Why able to define candidate?

  13. Negative Campaigns • Classic examples • Willie Horton • Why did this one reach legend status? • Aired only once ‘anonymously’ • Spawned free coverage • Woven into ‘official’campaignmessage • Opinion shifted

  14. Negative Campaigns • Classic examples • Bush v. Dukakis 1988 • Informal co-ordination (compare to superPacs) • Bush campaign could define an unknown candidate • Dukakis made it easy on them TANK AD • Media felt guilty, took it out on Bush I in 1992?

  15. Negative Campaigns? • Dukakis had it coming? • Tank photo among 100 photos that change the World • Anne Frank portrait • Fire hoses and dogs in Birmingham, AL • Tienneman Square (tank standoff)

  16. Tanks

  17. 1988 & Dukakis • Would Dukakis have lost anyway? • GHW Bush Reagan’s VP • Reagan popular • Economy OK

  18. Negative Campaigns • Classic example • Jesse Helms,Hands • 1990 US Senate vs. Harvey Gantt • Context matters • Helms campaign guilty of letters threatening black voters with jail if they voted • “qualifications don’t matter…”

  19. Negative campaigns • Playing the race card? • Call Me, Harold Ford Jr. • Corker ad • RNC / Corker campaign accused of racism • Would Ford have lost anyway? • TN a “red” state

  20. Negative Campaigns • Classic examples • Chambliss vs Max Cleland US Senate 2002 • Karl Rove painting. Vietnam vet as unpatriotic • Link conservative Dem to OsBL • Could ad have happened if not for 9/11? • Bill Clinton said 2008 MoveOnad lowest thing since this • Would Cleland have lost?

  21. Negative Campaigns • More recent examples • 2004 National elections • Karl Rove • GOP, “These are the stakes” • Democrats = you will die? • at least that’s how they spun it

  22. Negative Campaigns • Bush v. Kerry, 2004 • SwiftBoat Vets (Kerry’s words) • SwiftBoat Vets (Kerry lying) • Independent hit from 527 org • Wolves • Windsurfing • Policy content? No appeal to fear?

  23. Kerry & 2004 • Would Kerry have lost anyway? • Bush incumbent • Economy OK • Close election • Kerry led in national polls until August • No robust response to SBVT ads

  24. Negative Campaigns • 2008 • McCain 2008 • First ad • Disrespectful • Highest percent of ads negative • Obama 2008 • Country • Embrace • Enough $ to go negative and positive

  25. 2008 Campaign • Any Democrat would have won • What effect of ads? • What effect of money?

  26. 2012 Primaries • SuperPac spending vs. candidate spending • Gingrich SuperPac “What kind of man?” • Gingrich SuperPac “Blood Money” • Gingrich SuperPac ad Unelectable • Romney SuperPac Reagan ad • Romney SuperPac Unelectable • Romney Tom Brokaw ad

  27. 2012 Primaries • Compare to 2008 Primary • What effect negative ads? • Romney able to beat back Newt’s SC surge in FL • Could Romney win nomination w/o negative ads? • Romney’s “unfavorable” rating rising

  28. Negative Campaigns • What lessons • Some on winning side, some on losing side • Potential to define a candidate • Goldwater, Dukakis, Kerry • Potential to de-mobilize (this may be goal) • Potential for blowback • Clinton ‘08 (3am ad)

  29. Negative Campaigns • When wrong • What criteria to say, too negative? • Fear • Race • Religion • Policy? • Do we learn something…(other than fear, race, religion..)

  30. Negative ads • What effects? • Reduce turnout (???) • Generate interest / attention to news • Generate dissatisfaction with choices • (Re)define candidate • Goldwater, Dukakis, Kerry, Romney • What if target lacks resources to respond…

  31. The Virtue of Negative Ads • What effects; Prof. John G. Geer • Is there policy content/ learning • To change, to hold accountable, to change status quo needs being critical • Must have ‘vetting’ • Analysis of ballot initiative ads • The Geer ad

  32. Best Ads of Late • Chuck for Huck • Dale Peterson for Alabama Agriculture Commission • First • Second

  33. Puzzle • We know: • Ad spending mobilizes • Most spending negative • People more likely to know candidates • More able to place candidate ideology • but ads might cause people to be wrong

  34. Puzzle • We know: • people hate negative ads • people associate $ on negative ads with political corruption • campaigns think they know negative ads work • What alternatives?

  35. Reagan 1984 Thirty second version Longer version

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