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Negative Campaigns

Negative Campaigns. As a strategy Classic examples What lessons Always wrong? What effects? Turnout Voter opinions Blow-back. Negative Campaings. Classic examples Begs questions: What is negative? What is unfair?. Negative Campaigns. Classic examples LBJ Daisy Girl ad

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Negative Campaigns

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  1. Negative Campaigns • As a strategy • Classic examples • What lessons • Always wrong? • What effects? • Turnout • Voter opinions • Blow-back

  2. Negative Campaings • Classic examples • Begs questions: • What is negative? • What is unfair?

  3. Negative Campaigns • Classic examples • LBJ Daisy Girl ad • 1964 vs. Barry Goldwater Ad • Just once • What are voters supposed to hear? • What did they hear? • Vote LBJ, or they’ll nuke your kid

  4. Negative Campaigns • Classic Examples • Willie Horton • 1988 Bush I vs. Dukakis • Lee Atwater… “only question, which hand” • Just once (or twice) • How define candidate? • Why able to define candidate?

  5. Negative Campaigns • Classic examples • Willie Horton • Why did this one reach legend status? • Aired only once ‘anonymously’ • Spawned free coverage • Woven into ‘official’ message • Opinion shifted

  6. Negative Campaigns • Classic examples • Bush v. Dukakis 1988 • Willie Horton tip of genius iceberg • Bush campaign could define an unknown candidate (see Gary Hart ‘ 84, below) • Dukakis made it easy on them TANK AD • Media felt guilty, took it out on Bush I in 1992?

  7. Negative Campaigns? • Dukakis had it coming? • Tank photo among 100 photos that change the World • Anne Frank portrait • Fire hoses and dogs in Birmingham, AL • Tienneman Square (tank standoff)

  8. Negative Campaigns • Classic example • Jesse Helms,Hands • 1990 US Senate vs. Harvey Gantt • Context matters • Helms campaign guilty of letters threatening black voters with jail if they voted • “qualifications don’t matter…”

  9. Negative Campaigns • Classic examples • Chambliss vs Max Cleland US Senate 2002 • Karl Rove painting. Vietnam vet as unpatriotic • Link conservative Dem to OsBL • Could ad have happened if not for 9/11? • Bill Clinton recently said MoveOn ad lowest thing since this

  10. Negative Campaigns • More recent examples • 2004 National elections • Karl Rove • GOP, “These are the stakes” • Democrats = you will die? • at least that’s how they spun it

  11. Negative Campaigns • Recent examples • Bush v. Kerry, 2004 • SwiftBoat Vets • Independent hit from 527 org • Windsurfing • Just for fun… • Policy content? No appeal to fear?

  12. Negative Campaigns • Recent examples • McCain 2008 • Obama 2008

  13. Negative Campaigns • What lessons • Some on winning side, some on losing side • Potential to define a candidate • Goldwater, Dukakis, Kerry • Potential to de-mobilize (this may be goal) • Potential for blowback • Clinton ‘08 (3am ad)

  14. Negative Campaigns • When wrong • What criteria to say, too negative? • Fear • Race • Religion • Policy? • Do we learn something…(other than fear, race, religion..)

  15. The Virtue of Negative Ads • What effects; Prof. John G. Geer • Is there policy content/ learning • To change, to hold accountable, to change status quo needs being critical • Must have ‘vetting’ • Analysis of ballot initiative ads • The Geer ad

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