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CLIMATE INSTABILITY AND PUBLIC HEALTH NREL January 13, 2005 Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H. http://www/med.harvard.edu/

CLIMATE INSTABILITY AND PUBLIC HEALTH NREL January 13, 2005 Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H. http://www/med.harvard.edu/chge. Algal Blooms Peru 1991. United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report 2001 Climate is changing

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CLIMATE INSTABILITY AND PUBLIC HEALTH NREL January 13, 2005 Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H. http://www/med.harvard.edu/

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  1. CLIMATE INSTABILITY AND PUBLIC HEALTH NREL January 13, 2005 Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H. http://www/med.harvard.edu/chge

  2. Algal Blooms Peru 1991

  3. United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Third Assessment Report 2001 • Climate is changing • Human activities are contributing • Biological systems are being affected on all continents • Weather is becoming more extreme. All weather = f (CC + NV)

  4. Sea Surface Temperatures: Sept. 2004

  5. Since 2001 We Have Learned • CO2 rise is accelerating: 3ppm/yr, up from 1.8 • Tropical oceans are warmer & saltier • surface waters near the poles cooler & fresher • *In August water entering the Arctic Ocean • was 1o F warmer than a year ago! • 3. Polar and mountain glacial ice is diminishing at surprising rates • 4. Winds around both poles are • becoming more forceful.

  6. 379 ppm

  7. The Changing Shape of the Curve O U T L I E R S

  8. Deep Ocean Warming Oceans 18.2 x 1022 J Atmosphere 6.6 x 1021 J Levitus et al. Science 2000; 287: 2225

  9. Precipitation Extremes Past century Average annual precipitation 7% “Heavy rain events" (>2”/day) 14% “Very heavy rain events" (>4”/day) 20% Western drought – worst in 500 years - Groisman et al. 2004

  10. Greenland Ice Sheet 772,000 square miles of ice 1.9 miles thick Melting 1 meter/yr 2000 10 meters/yr 2004 Geological Survey of Greenland and Denmark

  11. Assessing Climate Stability Rates of Change Variability Gradients Number of Components Changing

  12. Epidemiological Framework Ecological-epidemiological Framework Agent Social Environment Host Ecological Global Epidemics Disease

  13. MODEL PROJECTIONS:HEATWAVES

  14. SUMMER 2003 HEATWAVE FRANCE, GERMANY, ITALY, SPAIN, PORTUGAL 21-35, 000 deaths WILDFIRES CROP FAILURES SURPRISES 2003 Summer Temperatures 10oC (18oF) >30year average Source: NASA

  15. INDIA June 2003 T 122•F >1400 deaths Andhra Pradesh July Floods Japanese B encephalitis

  16. AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE Indoor pollutants Socio/economic/emotional factors ASTHMA 2-3x Since 1980s Diesel Particles mold & pollen • Pollen & CO2 Floods & Fungi Ground-level Ozone & Droughts & Fires Heatwaves

  17. RAGWEED POLLEN PRODUCTIONand CO2 p = 0.005 Wayne et al., 2002: Annals of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology 8:279

  18. CO2 Dome

  19. Emerging Infectious Diseases • 30 “NEW” TO MEDICINE SINCE 1976 • HIV/AIDS Legionnaires’ • E. coli O157:H7 MDRTB & others • SARS nvCJD • HPS Vibrio cholerae O139 • Nipah virus Ebola • Arenaviruses Lyme disease • RESURGENT & REDISTRIBUTING • Malaria, DF, WNV, Leptospirosis, • Cholera, Avian Flu VECTORS Mosquitoes Ticks Rodents Bats Tsetse Flies Fleas Lice Snails Algae

  20. INFECTIOUS DISEASE A DRIVING FORCE IN HISTORY The Bad News PLAGUE 541 AD 1346 AD The “Good” News Cholera, TB, Smallpox

  21. MONTANE REGIONS

  22. 4161 284 9389 246 WNV HUMAN CASES & DEATHS 62 66 21 DROUGHT 1999, 2002, 2003 • 2000 2001 2002 2003 • 25 Nov Jeff Shaman Paul Epstein

  23. WNV: A DISEASE OF WILDLIFE • 230 SPECIES 44 STATES, DC, 5 CANADIAN PROVINCES • 138 Bird spp., RAPTORS • - 37 spp. of mosquitoes • HORSES • ZOOanimals • REPTILES AVIAN FLYWAYS

  24. Ecological Ripples INFECTIOUS DISEASES AS FORCES OF GLOBAL CHANGE Raptors Rodents Lyme disease Hantaviruses Arenaviruses Leptospirosis Toxoplasmosis Plague

  25. PACIFIC ANOMALIES ASIA AFRICA AMERICAS AUS WARM WEST COLD EAST Hoerling and Kumar: The perfect ocean for drought. Science 2003; 299: 691

  26. EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & DISEASE CLUSTERS

  27. HURRICANE MITCH HURRICANE MITCH 1998

  28. HURRICANE MITCH IMPACTS ON HEALTH AND DEVELOPMENT DISEASE CLUSTER -- Malaria (>30,000 cases) -- Dengue fever (>1,000) -- Cholera (>30,000) -- Leptospirosis Juan Almendares

  29. WEATHER ANOMALIES, TRAVEL HAZARDS • and TRAUMA • Fog, Ice Storms & Road Travel • Floods & Mudslides • Ice Instability, Heavy Precipitation & Avalanches • Infrastructure Damage and Water Q&Q • HEALTH & ECONOMIC IMPACTS

  30. Range Expansion of Soybean Rust North America Crop PestsGenerations/Year XB Yang, C Rosenzweig, P Anderson R Quiroz, G Baigorria, A Iglesias

  31. Drought, Bark Beetles & Fires Respiratory disease

  32. Costs of Emerging Infectious Diseases BIO ECONOMIC RESEARCH ASSSOCIATION, Cambridge, MA

  33. Costs of Extreme Weather Events Insurance & Reinsurance, Corporations, FEMA, OFDA, NGOs, Nation States, UN Agencies Av. $40 B/y Av. $4 B/y UNEP $150B/y w/in this decade

  34. OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS Harm Marine Mammals Shore birds Fisheries Consumers Livelihoods Spills & Leaks Exploration Extraction Transport Refining Transport MERCURY Air Pollution Eutrophication NOxs Acid Rain Combustion Warming Oceans Coral Reefs SLR EWEs Melting Polar Ice Climate Change

  35. CLIMATE CHANGE FUTURES: • HEALTH, ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS • Swiss Re, UNDP, JMF • Community-building: Scientists, UN agencies, NGOs, Corporations • Knowledge-building: Economic evaluation • Awareness-building: RISKS and OPPORTUNIIES

  36. Harmonizing Adaptation with Mitigation Distributed Generation WaterSchools Purification Clinics Pumping Homes Irrigation Computers Desalinization Cooking

  37. ENABLING FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE • FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Regulatory Funds, subsidies, tax incentives THE ENGINE OF GROWTH for the 21st CENTURY Institutional • EE, RE and DG • “Green Buildings” & Smart Growth • Rationalized Transport & Transit • Retrofitting Infrastructure • Ecological Reconstruction

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