How is the will of the people expressed?

2. How is the will of the people expressed? • Through votes cast in an election • Through the representatives who are elected • Through measures of public opinion

3. Edmund Burke, Speech to the Electors of Bristol3 November 1774 • “Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgement; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion.”

4. Robert A. Dahl, Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (1971), p.1 • ‘a key characteristic of a democracy is the continuing responsiveness of the government to the preferences of its citizens, considered as political equals’

5. UK health care: opinion-policy linkageSource: S B Hobolt & R Klemmemsen, ‘Responsive government? Public opinion and government policy preferences in Britain and Denmark’, Political Studies Vol. 53 (2005), Fig. 5, p. 396

6. Opinion on a given issue (e.g. public spending on defence) is spread along a continuum. In the following example, public preferences on spending are represented by a scale ranging from 0 to 22, with 0 representing zero spending and 22 representing maximum spending Individuals do not envisage a particular level of public spending on the issue, but express a preference for more or less spending Highest approval ratings are gained when government spending policy is closest to the median voter’s position Thermostatic model of opinion-policy relationship I

7. Thermostatic model of opinion-policy relationship II • When the government identifies the ‘temperature’ of public opinion – e.g. whether the trend of public opinion supports more spending on a given issue or less – it will change its policy to reflect that ‘temperature’. Public opinion acts as a ‘thermostat’. • When the public perceive that policy has moved closer to the median preference, demand for changes in policy will decrease correspondingly • If trends in public opinion change (i.e. the ‘temperature’ set by the ‘thermostat’ goes up or down) the government will respond to that change and shift policy again Further reading: Stuart N. Soroka and Christopher Wlezien, ‘Opinion-Policy Dynamics: Public Preferences and Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom’, British Journal of Political Science Vol. 35 (2005), pp. 665-689.

8. Policy continuum R L

9. Policy continuum Low High

10. Policy continuum & normal distribution R L Median voter

11. Thermostatic model of opinion-policy relationship III:Normal distribution of opinion on issue X

12. Thermostatic model of opinion-policy relationship IV:Government policy on issue X overlaid on public opinion at t1

13. Thermostatic model of opinion-policy relationship V:Government policy on issue X overlaid on public opinion at t2

14. Thermostatic model of opinion-policy relationship VI:Government policy on issue X overlaid on public opinion at t3

15. Thermostatic model of opinion-policy relationship VII:Optimal government policy with normal distribution of public opinion

16. Thermostatic model of opinion-policy relationship VIII:Government policy on issue X overlaid on public opinion at t4

17. Thermostatic model of opinion-policy relationship IX:Government policy realigned to reflect new distribution of public opinion