BIOMASS FUTURES:

1. BIOMASS FUTURES: Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations Brussels, 26 November 2010

2. Contents • Objectives & main steps • Results: different supplies • Costs • Supply-demand • Further steps

3. Biomass categories included • Biomass from agriculture • Dedicated cropping • Primary residues (straw, prunnings, manure) • Biomass from forestry • Round wood production • Additionally harvested wood • Primary forestry residues • Secondary forestry residues • Biomass from waste • Waste biomass • Primary, secondary, tertiary residues 3

4. Steps Mapping (present) technical potential Add cost information and derive cost-supply relations Add sustainability criteria and map the environmentally constrained potential Use potentials as a basis for further scenario-modelling studies estimating future biomass supply-demand and related environmental impacts June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 4

5. Examples of mapped technical potentials Agricultural by-products Dedicated cropping June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

6. Manure Factors determining potential: Type and animal numbers (LSU/ha) Manure surplus (in Nitrate Vulnerable areas max 170 kgN/ha) Source: Eurostat FSS, NVZ maps, own elaborations June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

7. Manure available (2005) EU-Total: 1726 KTOE (1.4% of total potential) EU-Total: 2724 KTOE (2.3% of total potential) June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

8. Pruning material available (2005) June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

9. Total pruning material (2005) Total: 11424 KTOE 9% of the total present potential June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

10. Straw JRC approach Sources of straw: all cereals, maize (straw of corn), rapeseed, sunflower Sustainably harvested potential Minus competing uses (animal bedding, mushroom production) June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

11. Straw EU-total: 47960 KTOE Based on CAPRI baseline scenario 2020 EU-total: 27948 KTOE 23% of total potential June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

12. Factors determining waste potential Number of inhabitants Welfare level Industrial development Present collection activities Source of data: Eurostat waste statistics (year 2008). Bias towards countries with good collection and registration systems! June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

13. Wastes June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

14. Summary waste June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

15. Present recovery of which some going to bioenergy June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

16. Verge grass Total potential: 1856 KTOE 2% of total potential June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

17. Dedicated cropping 2008 June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

18. Future dedicated cropping with perennials Based on land availability and cropping mix as predicted by CAPRI in baseline scenario 3 options: High support for cropping, competes with arable crops on good-medium productive arable lands Some cropping support, is economic on fallow and former olives and vineyards i.e. the lower productive lands Some support for establishment and bringing back into production of abandoned land in areas with large abandoned land resource June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

19. On good-medium productive arable lands Assumption of 5% of 2020 good-medium quality land High yield per hectare Very large indirect land effects Southern Europe large pressure on scarce water resources Largest potential June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

20. On low productive arable lands Assumption of 10% of 2020 fallow, olive and vineyards Medium-Low yield per hectare Limited indirect land effects Large adverse effects on biodiversity Lowest potential of 3 options June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

21. On former abandoned lands Estimate was that in involved regions abandoned land share was 5%-10% of UAA. Of this 5% was used for dedicated biomass cropping Low yield per hectare No indirect land effects Some negative effects on biodiversity What is effect on soil-C? June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

22. Main observations regarding supplies • Largest supply in industrial and municipal waste, however many alternative uses • Most by-products still under-utilised • Present dedicated cropping potential June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 22

23. Cost-supply France June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 23

24. Cost-supply Netherlands June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 24

25. Cost-supply Germany June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 25

26. Cost-supply Poland June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 26

27. Total cost-supply EU 2008 • Very large potential at very low price: • >50% Industrial + household wastes, but now mostly NOT used at all or not for bioenergy generation • By-products agriculture (straw, prunings) June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 27

28. Conclusions Largest cheap potential in waste. Improved organisation of collection, treatment, logistics will improve access to this resource By-products from agriculture also have important potential, now still under-utilised. Forestry potential should be included. Will certainly add importantly. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010

29. Future work • Draft results need further critical review and improvements • Scenario application to extrapolate present potentials to future technical-economic and sustainable potential • Forestry potential still to be included • Cuttings/pruning from landscape elements, recreational and nature conservation areas should still be mapped. But difficult. June 2009- December 2011- EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 29