May Town Center Presentation to Metro Planning

1. May Town CenterPresentation toMetro Planning Regional Economic Impacts of Construction, Residential and Commercial Activity William W. Wade Energy and Water Economics April 16, 2008

2. Presentation Outline • 1. Regional Economic Impacts Briefly Introduced • Overview of May Town Center Project • Construction • Residential Spending • Office and Commercial • Total Regional Economic Impacts • Government Revenues

3. May Town CenterFive Easy Numbers

4. 1 Regional Economic Impacts Briefly Introduced

5. Why do Regional Economic Impact Assessment? • To understand the effects of changes in business activity on the regional economy and government revenues: e.g, • Slow down in Music Row Activity; • Industry/plant relocation; • Condo residential additions to Downtown; • On-location movies – Hanna Montana; • Addition of May Town Center Commercial and Residential.

6. What do you measure?Direct and Secondary Economic Effects • Economic impacts are classified as direct, indirect and induced. • Direct impacts are the primary change in the regional economy. • Indirect impacts result from changes in sales of suppliers to the directly-affected businesses. • Induced impacts result from changes in spending on consumer goods and services as a result of changes in employment and payroll of directly and indirectly affected businesses. • Impacts can be referred to as direct and secondary effects. • Total Impacts are the sum of direct plus secondary effects.

7. Example: New Money spent on Recreation Leakage

8. Total Regional Output Employment Personal Income Government Revenues Economic Impact Analysis of May Town Center Inputs Direct Effects Outputs Total Effects as measured by: Computer Simulation to determine secondary effects Construction Residential Office Development Commercial REDYN Economic Model In other words, Economic Development of Davidson and Metro MSA

9. Measurement of Economic Impacts • Measure changes in policy variable associated with two forecasts – the difference is the impact. Employment NewForecast Economic Effect of Driver[s] Control Forecast 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 . . . . . 2026

10. 2. Overview of May Town Center Project

11. May Town Center Drivers: Overview of Project • Offices 10.0 MSF • Commercial 1.5 MSF • Residential 7.0 MSF – 5,000 units • Build out 2010 – 2024 • Absorption 2011 - 2026

12. May Town Center:Aggregate Market Value by Property Type

13. Regional Economic Effects Extend Beyond Metro Nashville • May Town Center on the west side of Nashville will stimulate growth across the region. • Economic Impacts are tracked in this analysis by specific counties to reveal the broad economic stimulus. • Davidson • Dickson & Sumner • Rest of Nashville MSA, excluding Davidson, Dickson & Sumner • Rest of Tennessee. • REDYN Model results are produced annually thru 2026. • Results are reported in constant $2007 • REDYN economic and demographic modeling system (REgional DYNamics) is a nonlinear, dynamic, forecasting and economic impact model. It provides advanced, impact, policy, and forecasting analysis for public and private plans, programs, and projects.

14. 3. Construction

15. May Town Center: Construction Direct Costs • Firms will respond from the multi-county region to project’s construction demand.

16. Total Construction Employment: Direct plus Secondary Effects Direct jobs at the project will create new jobs across the region as project and vendor employees re-spend wages and salaries and profits.

17. Total Construction Related Jobs:Direct & Secondary Employment Effects

18. 4. Residential Spending

19. May Town Center: Residential Buildout

20. Residential Household Income and Direct Spending. $140Million Total economy-wide personal income & consumer spending will reflect the new office & commercial jobs in the new business developments.

21. 5. Office and Commercial

22. May Town Center:Office & Commercial Development • Will attract new businesses and employees. • Well-educated mobile employees attracted by the visual amenities, superior affordable housing, and work that involves education, experience, and expertise. • Office workers are expected to include tenants such as managers, administrative & support firms, professional & technical firms, finance & insurance firms, and real estate firms. • Commercial workers are aimed at retail stores and full-service restaurants.

23. May Town Center: Office Employment

24. May Town Center: Retail & Restaurant • Retail space responds to the need for excellent shopping environments to gain & keep the US knowledge worker. • Restaurant space aims at the demand for a superior dining experience. • Retail tenants should meet new demand and not “crowd out” existing retail jobs. • Restaurant tenants will “displace” some existing restaurant jobs elsewhere.

25. May Town Center: Direct Retail & Restaurant Employment

26. May Town Center:Total Direct Employment 42,000

27. Total Regional Job Growth:All Drivers plus Multipliers Adding May Town Center to the Metro Economy creates new employment across the region.

28. May Town CenterEmployment Impact by Sector - Davidson

29. 6. Total Regional Economic Impacts

30. May Town Center:Economic Migration Economic migration includes employment seekers + dependents, but excl children by definition.

31. May Town Center:Total Personal Consumption Demand Growth

32. Total Regional Output (Sales) Growth

33. 7. Government Revenues

34. Davidson County Direct Project Government Revenues

35. Davidson County Total Property & Sales Tax Revenues

36. May Town Center: Annual Tax & Fee Revenues to Davidson County