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What was expected from COP 15. An analysis of what the parties expected from the conference

ecbi. What was expected from COP 15. An analysis of what the parties expected from the conference David Lesolle, Botswana. european capacity building initiative initiative européenne de renforcement des capacités.

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What was expected from COP 15. An analysis of what the parties expected from the conference

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  1. ecbi What was expected from COP 15. An analysis of what the parties expected from the conference David Lesolle, Botswana. european capacity building initiative initiative européenne de renforcement des capacités for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiations pour un renforcement durable des capacités en appui aux négociations internationales sur les changements climatiques

  2. Two People (Countries) Developed Developing : Higher numbers Agreed amend KP by middle of 1st Commitment period (Copenhagen – COP15) Implement BAP three pillars TT, CB and Finance Adaptation Fund is used • Amend Kyoto – and NAI countries come on board • Long term Cooperative Agreement - you do your part I do mine! • UNFCCC – continue to talk about CC uncertainty and elevate the concerns • Don’t read NCs from NAI and their NAPAs

  3. Before Bali • The KP was AI and NAI; CDM etc • Sustainable Development • Review of National Communications • SB processes bring more and more agenda – more load to the system • Breakdown almost at Bali – Africa Group saves the day

  4. At Bali • Agreed to BAP • Two track for LCA and KP review • BAP put deadline at COP15. • LCA – pre-conditions on TT, CB and Finance. Differences / first fault-lines in the G77 coalition • KP Review: numbers & Baselines not strong part of negotiations

  5. From Bali to Copenhagen • 8 additional meetings – was this the right approach? – maybe step by step was better • Africa did not negotiate. Needed strategy - G77 and adaptation • To Copenhagen and Africa's expectations almost – conclusions, common sense, submission (pleading?)

  6. Africa’s expectations from COP15

  7. Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner”

  8. Current Development Trend Unilateral contribution to atmosphere Peak later, Mitigate, and Develop, 1,800 1,600 1,400 THE GAP (use the Climate Fund) 1,200 -equivalent 1,000 800 2 Mt CO 600 400 Upper limit of IPCC lowest scenario 200 - 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048

  9. PROPOSALS ON THE TABLE • GHG emission reductions and limits – Peak, Plateau and decline thereafter. Conditional on Finance, Capacity Building and Tech Transfer – Do we know what means – are we ready? • Carbon pricing concepts, REDD and MRV – carbon tax, transport, government, low carbon economy What’s PAMs for Africa?

  10. GHG emission reductions & limits Peak 550 Plateau Decline

  11. PROPOSALS ON THE TABLE • Preparing for the future – education, public awareness, research, outreach what do we mean by CB? • Prioritise Vulnerability & Adaptation: 1st order maybe okay – but 3rd & 4th ? • Integrate & Institutionalising CC work: legislative, regulatory and fiscal package – Are we ready to accept the Finance and TT under what terms?

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