Will the World Face an Overpopulation Problem ?

1. Will the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?

2. Basics of the Malthusian dilemma People are doubling, but food is not! • Today: 1 person 1 Unit • 25 yrs 2 persons 2 units • 50 years 4 persons 3 units • 75 years 8 persons 4 units

3. Food & Population, 1950-2000Malthus vs. Actual Trends Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

4. Neo-Malthusians • Maybe Malthus was right? • Poor countries = more rapid pop growth; tech = people living longer • Outstripping of resources = increase in wars and civil violence • Criticisms of Malthus • World supply of resources is not fixed – possibilism • Technological advances offset scarcity • Larger pop stimulates economic growth • Marxists • The issue with resources isn’t population growth– it is unfair distribution of resources and corrupt governing structures Against the grain… The Myth of Overpopulation?

5. Fuel Wood Collection in Mali

6. Crude Birth Rate Decline, 1980-2005 Fig. 2-21: Crude birth rates declined in most countries during the 1980s and 1990s (though the absolute number of births per year increased from about 120 to 130 million).

7. 2nd highest population in the world • shortages of food and water • less healthy therefore • less productive work force • greater demand for natural • resource consumption • higher level of environmental degradation resulting from such consumption. • Pressing for sterilization over temporary contraceptives India

8. China “Of all the things in the world, people are the most precious.”- Mao Zedong, 1949 • -Rapid population growth after • creation of People’s Republic of China • “Great Leap Forward”1958 • ”Late, Long, and Few” 1960s • One Child Policy 1979-present • Female infanticide?

9. Nigeria Low levels of secondary education correlate to lack of knowledge/use of birth control methods A survey reported several respondents knowing of a contraceptive method (76%), but only 28% were currently using one, and fewer than half (47%) reported ever having used one Many surveyed did not make the connection between contraceptive use and higher standards of living [International Planning Perspectives, 1999)

10. TFR of 3-8 per family The UN Population Fund has spent more than half a billion dollars on contraception in the Philippines in the past two decades. –Catholic church is so hostile that it is now planning to pull out of more than half of the 21 provinces. 1/5of 15 to 24-year-old girls in the Philippines have had an abortion. Baby Boom in the Philippines The Philippines

11. Women Using Family Planning

12. Use of Family Planning • Demand is actually greater than supply in most LDCs • Bangladesh – 6% in 1950s – 58% using them in 2006 • Especially low in Africa – 25% - econ, religion, education • High birth rates = low status of women – many children = status of women and virility of men Fig. 2-22: Both the extent of family planning use and the methods used vary widely by country and culture.

16. Family Planning Methodsused in three countries

17. http://www.edweek.org/rc/articles/2007/06/08/sow0608.h26.htmlhttp://www.edweek.org/rc/articles/2007/06/08/sow0608.h26.html