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Managing the Temporal Geography of Futures

Managing the Temporal Geography of Futures. Michael Flaxman, MIT. Motivation. Overview. Alternative Futures Methodology Current Scenario & Impact Model Data Management Four Problems Two (Partial) Solutions. Problem 1: Too Many Futures!. Problem 2: Logical Dependencies Are Important.

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Managing the Temporal Geography of Futures

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  1. Managing the Temporal Geography of Futures Michael Flaxman, MIT

  2. Motivation

  3. Overview • Alternative Futures Methodology • Current Scenario & Impact Model Data Management • Four Problems • Two (Partial) Solutions

  4. Problem 1: Too Many Futures!

  5. Problem 2:Logical Dependencies Are Important • Correct Interpretation often depends on understanding underlying assumptions • Large Update Problems • Scenarios dependencies propagate • If dependencies are not tracked, danger of false attribution

  6. Problem 2:Logical Dependencies Example • Scenario 1 (S1) • Impact of S1 on Hydrology • Impact of Hydrology under S1 on Species Habitat • Scenario 2 (S2) • Impact of S2 on Hydrology • Impact of Hydrology under S2 on Species Habitat • If Scenarios Change… • Dependencies propagate • i.e.above must recompute hydrology twice & habitat twice • If dependencies are not tracked, danger of false attribution • i.e. Species Habitat map not correctly updated to S1v17

  7. Problem 3:Sharing • Creating a single isolated system to manage spatiotemporal data is hard • Creating a networked system is much harder still! • Must track dependencies *between* systems • Must deal with broken connections, latencies, and time changes

  8. Problem 3:Sharing Example • Parties Involved • Hydrologist at USGS (Ft. Lauderdale) • Land Use Modeler at UFL (Gainsville) • Habitat Specialists at FWS (Vero Beach & 2 Refuges) • Vegetation Specialist at Everglades National Park • Action • Land Use Modeler receives updated demographic estimate, updates land cover model • One scenario change requires sequential notification to 5 distributed parties + manager

  9. Problem 4:Metaphors & Mechanisms Are Weak • Available object “metaphors” and mechanisms • Files (on disk) • Bundled by space, discrete for each time ‘slice’ • NetCDF – multidimensional file format • Supported by climate models, some GIS • Not well supported outside of science • Layers (in GIS) • User re-orderable with occlusion (for better and worse) • Independent visibility toggle • Hierarchical Folders (both) • Allows development of hierarchical file or layer representations of time • Other Metaphors & Concepts • Time Line” • Understandable interface, but not sharable implementation • Dependency Diagram • Again, well understood, but each implementation separate

  10. MIT Prototypes • ScenarioCMS • A content management system for spatial scenarios organized as “time slices” • Provides “ScenarioXML” language to document assumptions and dependencies • Status: working prototype (Telluride), Phase 2 (BajaEcoInfo) • EverView2 • Extension of ScenarioCMS for the Everglades • Visualizes & manages assumptions, choices and dependencies • Organizes “stories” within Scenarios • Stories are complex sub-scenarios with temporal sequencing • Status: early schematic

  11. ScenarioCMS: Scenarios & Constraints

  12. ScenarioXML • Vendor-neutral, software-neutral • Organizes scenarios logically • Like HTML, separates presentation from data • Metadata for scenario (machine & human readable)

  13. ScenarioCMS: Simple Time Slider

  14. ScenarioCMS: Dynamic Legend

  15. Florida EvergladesDis-integrated Management Systems Refuge Manager’s View: Habitat & Species Observation Only Water Manager’s View: Pipes Only

  16. Scenario 1 Conditions: Wet Season Hurricane IV approaching Loxahatchee NWR and Miami-Dade at High Flood-Risk Management Options: B. Release water to L-8 and L-10 STA 1-W and 1-E; WCA 1 (Lox. NWR) A. Release water to C-43 and C-44 St. Lucie Canal; Caloosahatchee Canal Preview Preview Decision Impacts: A. Miami-Dade Impact: Flood-risk reduced Loxahatchee NWR/Everglades Impact: Flood-risk reduced Caloosahatchee Estuary and St. Lucie Estuary Impacts: Water quality decreases Low O2 levels Fish Kill Inundate Sea Grass release Lake Okechobee Water Level 14.5’ 16.5’ 17.5’ Urban Flood-Risk Levels L M H Conservation Areas Flood-Risk Levels L M H Lock Release to C-44 and C-43 Water reaches St. Lucie Lock Water reaches Franklin Lock Urban flood-risk reduced; Estuarine Impacts Flood-risk high Water reaches first locks, Port Mayaca, Moore Haven timeline

  17. Scenario 1 Conditions: Wet Season Hurricane IV approaching Loxahatchee NWR and Miami-Dade at High Flood-Risk Management Options: B. Release water to L-8 and L-10 STA 1-W and 1-E; WCA 1 (Lox. NWR) A. Release water to C-43 and C-44 St. Lucie Canal; Caloosahatchee Canal Preview Preview Decision Impacts: B. Miami-Dade Impact: Flood-risk reduced Loxahatchee NWR/Everglades Impact: Apple snail population and waterfowl nesting inundated release Lake Okechobee Water Level 14.5’ 16.5’ 17.5’ Urban Flood-Risk Levels L M H Conservation Areas Flood-Risk Levels L M H Lock Release to L-8, L-10 Water reaches STA 1-W and 1-E Water released to WCA 1, (Lox) Apple Snail pop. disturbed Water reaches WCA 2, WCA 3 Water reaches Everglades High Flood-Risk

  18. Scenario 2 Conditions: Drought Season SFWMD Phase IV Drought “Critical” Loxahatchee NWR and Everglades National Park need water Management Options: B. Release water to L-15 and L-18 Miami-Dade and West Palm Beach A. Release min. flows to L-8, L-10, STA 1-W and 1-E, WCA 1 Loxahatchee NWR; Everglades Preview Preview Decision Impacts: A. Miami-Dade Impact: Water restrictions remain Phase IV Loxahatchee NWR/Everglades Impact: Minimum flows received, still dry SFWMD Drought Protocol: Water Restrictions Stages I II III IV Flow Rate None Minimum Adequate Release water to L-8, L-10 Water reaches STA 1-W and 1-E Water released to WCA 1, (Lox) Water reaches WCA 2, WCA 3 Water reaches Everglades Severe Drought timeline

  19. Scenario 2 Conditions: Drought Season SFWMD Phase IV Drought “Critical” Loxahatchee NWR and Everglades National Park need water Management Options: B. Release water to L-15 and L-18 Miami-Dade and West Palm Beach A. Release min. flows to L-8, L-10, STA 1-W and 1-E, WCA 1 Loxahatchee NWR; Everglades Preview Preview Decision Impacts: B. Miami-Dade Impact: Water restrictions reduced to Phase III Loxahatchee NWR/Everglades Impact: Apple snail population fails Mandatory minimum flows not met SFWMD Drought Protocol: Water Restrictions Stages I II III IV Flow Rate None Minimum Adequate Release water to L-15, L-18 Water reaches Miami-Dade County line Water restrictions reduced Phase III Min. flows to Everglades not met Drought severe

  20. Conclusions • Spatiotemporal Scenario Management Needed • Typical scenario study generates 100+ layers • Logical dependencies important to preserve • Sharing is Nice • Single-application solutions inadequate • Many raw data ‘standards’ to pick from • Higher-level aggregations desirable

  21. Future Work • Telluride Prototype • Go live this summer • Kept simple • Time slices only • Interface exposes dependencies as hierarchies • Back-end ScenarioXML drives interface • Everview2 • To be developed next academic year

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