Future Airspace Strategy Brief Strategic Aviation Special Interest Group - SASIG

1. Future Airspace Strategy Brief Strategic Aviation Special Interest Group - SASIG 26 November 2010

2. What is FAS? • FAS is a strategic framework that will pull together a complex and diverse set of policy and regulatory issues that will enable judgements to be made that are properly underpinned by cohesive and cogent policy formulation • This will, in turn, enable air navigation service providers (such as NATS) to create an airspace structure that is fit for the future, effective, efficient and ensures that the UK meets any international obligations that are placed upon it • It is not a detailed implementation plan, although such plans will be driven by the outcome of the FAS work The FAS concept

3. FAS analysis concluded a flexible, robust strategy is required that is responsive to Government policy on aviation The FAS Development Programme Forecast growth in demand for aviation Need to modernise the airspace system, optimising outputs from European developments Transport Select Committee Need for a performance/efficency based approach for assessing and implementing changes South east airspace capacity Issues Need for coordination across all parties (civil & military) investing in / impacted by changes Initial Impetus The Context For Developing the FAS Broader context

4. The FAS sets out the strategy for modernising the UK airspace system answering the question " "How can we make the most efficient use of airspace, to meet users requirements, within future constraints?" In scope for the FAS Areas not in scope but key to delivering overall improvements • Maximising efficiency of the system within safety and environmental constraints • Integration with SES II and SESAR • Balancing demand for airspace capacity with supply - when and where it occurs • Setting out the characteristics and benefits of the future airspace system • Roadmap for implementation of changes. • The efficiency of airports’ operations (scheduling, ground movements etc.) • Government policy on airport development • A detailed plan for implementation of the proposed changes • Alignment of industry investment plans to implement changes • Mechanisms to track the overall performance of the system as changes are implemented. What is the FAS about

5. UK Airspace requirements for the future and the FAS Vision UK Airspace Requires Modernisation to: FAS Vision • Deal with current hotspots of congestion • Enable and facilitate continuous improvement in safety • Implement SES proposals • Take advantage of technological developments to improve efficiency • Be responsive to Government policy and decision-making • Ensure access to sufficient airspace for non CAT users • Provide flexibility within the system to enable future development and advancements Safe, efficient airspace, that has the capacity to meet reasonable demand, balances the needs of all users and mitigates the impact of aviation on the environment The FAS Vision

6. Completed comprehensive draft of the FAS, to be refined and agreed by aviation stakeholders (Airports, Airlines, ANSPs, GA, NGOs etc) Jun 09 to Oct 09 Stock-take of key issues/concepts Nov 09 to Nov 10 Produce draft for consultation 1 Nov 10 to 7 Feb 11 Stakeholder Consultation • Captures what FAS seeks to address: • Demand/Supply • Safety • Technology & Ops. • Environment • Policy & Reg. • Draft strategy for airspace out to 2030: • Characteristics of 2030 airspace • Framework of potential changes • Priorities and risks • Refine strategy with stakeholders: • Gain industry buy-in and commitment • Demonstrate commercial feasibility and plan for implementation AFT 2 AFT 1 Progress Update

7. FAS proposes significant changes to modernise the way the UK’s airspace system operates over next 20 years, introducing greater flexibility, cooperation and systemisation Modernised 2030 Airspace System Routeing based on ‘user preferred (4D) trajectories’ Flexible, often dynamic, management of the airspace structure through Joint and Integrated, Civil/Military operations Greater cooperation and the increased use of systems and technology to safely manage additional complexity Simpler airspace structures, integrated across National and Functional Airspace Block (FAB) boundaries Characteristics of 2030 Airspace

8. The overall airspace system can be separated into five areas Communications Navigation Surveillance ATM Capability Airspace Structure The ATM System

9. 2011 – 14: • Navigation – Performance-based navigation implemented in the en-route environment. • Surveillance - Wider adoption of Mode S and ADS B. • Communication - Data-link introduced for standard messages and clearances. • ATM Capability - Arrival Management tools implemented in some busy terminal operations. • Airspace Structure - Introduce a common transition altitude in controlled airspace. • 2015 – 20: • Navigation – Advanced RNP (part of SES II IR) allows aircraft to maintain the spacing during a turn. • Surveillance – Move towards more cooperative solution ATC downloading data from the aircraft. • Communication – Use of Data-link expanded to become primary method of communications. • ATM Capability - Departure Management introduced. Arrival Management expands to point of departure. • Airspace Structure - Expand free routeing / self separation areas to include lower flight levels. • 2021 – 30: • Navigation – Advanced RNP introduces vertical containment and 4D trajectory optimisation. • Surveillance – Roll-out of Multi Static PSR to replace primary radar. • ATM Capability – New tools to support 4D trajectory optimisation. • Airspace Structure - Introduce dynamic (near real time) management of airspace structures. Example Road Map

10. Implementation of the changes set out in the FAS aim to deliver benefits in safety, capacity, the environment and cost effectiveness Benefits

11. The scenarios aim to model future demand for airspace capacity under challenging circumstances against which the need for potential changes, and the effect they may have, can be tested • Key Caveats • The scenarios modelled in FAS are not constructed to represent the most likely future demand for airspace capacity. • They are indicative only and aim to satisfy two general tests, covering a range of (i) plausible but (ii) challenging futures against the demands of which it might be reasonable for the aviation industry to prepare. • The scenario results highlight broadly where and when demand for airspace capacity may significantly exceed supply under the challenging assumptions made. • The results will be used to guide, prompt and test the proposals developed in the FAS. • The modelling is not designed to provide detailed answers on any one particular scenario. • The modelling is not detailed implementation planning, which will need to be conducted by ANSPs in due course. Airspace Demand Scenario

12. Overview of FAS Airspace Scenario Modelling • Scenario FAS0: Baseline case 2009 assumptions • Air Transport White Paper growth assumptions envisaged demand for airspace is driven primarily by expansion at Heathrow and Stansted. • Scenario FAS1: Growth Disseminates to South East • No additional runways in the South East, smaller airports in the South East expanded to serve additional demand. • Scenario FAS2: Growth Disseminates to the Regions • Smaller airports in the Regions expanded to serve additional demand. • Little divergence in results from each scenario. In all scenarios, we need to maximise airspace efficiency. Airspace Demand Scenarios

13. FAS Document Three Parts Appendices • Part 1 – What the FAS aims to consider, address and achieve. • Part 2 – The high-level characteristics of the future airspace, framework of potential changes and associated benefits. • Part 3 – Ensuring safe, balanced and effective decision-making and implementation. • App 1 – Future Growth in Demand for Airspace: Scenario Modelling Detail. • App 2 – Technology and Operations Roadmap. • App 3 – Performance-Based Navigation. • App 4 – Environmental Metrics FAS Document

14. FAS Document Key Points Synopsis Table • A synopsis of the key points being considered in the FAS document are highlighted in bold blue and are summarised, along with a reference to the relevant paragraphs, in Table 9 at the end of the document. There are 68 items in the table. Synopsis of Key Points

15. FAS Document Conclusions and Recommendations Recommendations Table • The conclusions and recommendations are highlighted in bold green as they appear in the body of the FAS document and are summarised, along with a reference to the relevant paragraph, in the table at the end of the document. There are 64 items in the table Conclusions and Recommendations

16. FAS Document Risks to Implementation Risk Table • Risks associated with the implementation of the FAS are highlighted in bold red in the text of the document. A full list of risks associated with the FAS are in the table at the end of the document. Once the FAS is agreed, work will be needed to make a high-level assessment of risk proximity, probability and impact followed by identification of appropriate mitigations. There are currently 35 items in the table Risks

17. Consultation 1 November 2010 to 7 February 2011 CAA Webpage for FAS Consultation Document • Full draft FAS document • Consultation document with questions • Airspace for Tomorrow 1 and 2 • E-mail address for questions and replies FAS@caa.co.uk • www.caa.co.uk/FAS • E-mail:FAS@caa.co.uk Consultation

18. Consultation Questions • Stakeholders are free to provide general, or specific, comments on the draft in addition to the 14 questions asked in the consultation document. • Consultations Questions are set out at paragraph 6 of the Consultation Document under the headings of: General Policy and Regulation Technology and Operations Environment Safety Capacity and Demand Consultation Questions

19. Consultation – Next Steps • Once the consultation is closed the responses will be considered. • The draft FAS document updated accordingly. • Aim to produce and publish the Future Airspace Strategy in the second quarter of 2011. • Should the consultation responses result in the requirement for a fundamental change then further consultation may needed. Consultation

20. Consultation – Next Steps Aviation stakeholders are invited to provide written response to this consultation by 7 February 2011 by e-mail to: FAS@caa.co.uk, or in writing to: Tony Rapson Policy Coordinator Directorate of Airspace Policy CAA House 45 – 59 Kingsway London WC2B 6TE For more information call: 020 7453 6522 or e-mail FAS@caa.co.uk or tony.rapson@caa.co.uk CONSULTATION DOCUMENTS CAN BE FOUND AT: www.caa.co.uk/FAS Consultation

22. Consultation Questions – General • The FAS is predicated on modernisation of the UK airspace system – implementing new operational procedures, enabled by technology, to increase the safety and efficiency of ATM. In your opinion what are the main drivers and priorities for the modernisation of the National ATM system that should be considered? • From your perspective what are the most significant risks associated with the modernisation of the airspace system to deliver safety, efficiency and environmental benefits? • From your perspective what are the most likely benefits to be delivered from the modernisation of the airspace system and what should the relative priorities be? General

23. Consultation Questions – Policy and Regulation • What are your views on the European and wider International issues of airspace design and relative importance as set out in the Future Airspace Strategy? Policy and Regulation

24. Consultation Questions – Technology and OperationsAirspace • The FAS aims to optimise the efficiency of the airspace system that may benefit one airport more than another. What are you views of a strategy that may need to balance such benefits and disbenefits and how do you think the relative merits should be evaluated? • What challenges do you envisage arising out of the introduction of greater airspace sharing, in comparison to the current rigid route structure, that will enable equitable access to future airspace that balances the needs of all users? • The FAS proposes significant changes to the UK airspace system. How could the current process for airspace change be strengthened to support a more robust and efficient appraisal, consultation and implementation of the proposals set out in the Strategy? Tech and Ops - Airspace

25. Consultation Questions – Technology and OperationsCNS • What factors do you consider particularly important when assessing the proposed increased use of future Communication, Navigation and Surveillance technologies and infrastructure that underpins many of the aspirations in the FAS? How should the CAA ensure the evolution towards this technological capability is timely and coherent? Tech and Ops - CNS

26. Consultation Questions – Environment • How would you assess the current emphasis on environmental matters within the FAS in relation to safety and capacity? • How should the FAS address the trade-off between different types of environmental impacts as set out in the document? Environment

27. Consultation Questions – Safety • Do you have any suggestions as to the safety protocols that should apply to the FAS to achieve the fundamental principle that, as an absolute minimum, safety levels must be at least maintained in making changes that benefit other aspects of the system and, where possible, changes should contribute directly to the development of a fundamentally safer system? • What are your views on whether or not the FAS should attempt to set targets against national safety KPIs for either all UK airspace, or specific hotspots as determined by UK operators and air navigation service providers, commensurate with maintaining a ‘Just Culture’? • Do you believe that the CAA has the appropriate policies and tools to regulate new concepts and technologies emerging out of the SES initiative and, in particular, SESAR? Safety

28. Consultation Questions – Capacity and Demand • How do you view the conceptual thinking on airspace efficiency as articulated in the FAS draft, as the basis of a way forward? Capacity and Demand