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The Dutch Land Market: A Regional Tool for Policy Impact on Vacancy and Grant Rates

The Dutch Land Market: A Regional Tool for Policy Impact on Vacancy and Grant Rates. European Real Estate Society Conference 2014 27 th Jun 2014. Brano Glumac, PhD. Land acquirement by municipalities. Municipality is an active stakeholder

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The Dutch Land Market: A Regional Tool for Policy Impact on Vacancy and Grant Rates

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  1. The Dutch Land Market: A Regional Tool for Policy Impact on Vacancy and Grant Rates European Real Estate Society Conference 2014 27thJun 2014 Brano Glumac, PhD

  2. Land acquirement by municipalities • Municipality is an active stakeholder • Due to economic conditions land demand declined • Depreciate the industrial land value • in 2014 losses have risen 4-6 billion • competition for attracting companies • Mismatch in supply and demand → ABM Page1 / Department of the Built Environment

  3. Land market imperfections • Location and allocation • Land is traded infrequently • High transaction costs • Difficult to determine accurate price • Integrating: urban policy, population growth dynamics, land-use change prediction • ABM supports: policy makers, urban planners, urban developers Page2 / Department of the Built Environment

  4. ABM as an industrial land use policy tool • Model matches existing supply with predicted demand • Supply: existing industrial and business parks • Demand: • Demand model per industry sector • Location choice based on companies’ preferences • Data: • Employment per sector; sector specific area demand • Industry location (future also), location characteristics, company register, GIS Page3 / Department of the Built Environment

  5. ABM as an industrial land use policy tool Page4 / Department of the Built Environment

  6. ABM: General demand model • BLM model estimates spatial demand (SD) • Employment indicators (E) • Terrain quotient (TQ) • Location type preference (LTP) • Company growth with Monte Carlo • Growth per individual company • Fitting of the current accommodation • Newcomers Page5 / Department of the Built Environment

  7. ABM: Location specific model • Attributes Page6 / Department of the Built Environment

  8. ABM: Location specific model • Bayesian Classifier Naïve Network Page7 / Department of the Built Environment

  9. ABM: Financial feasibility • Investments vs benefits • more space, moving closer to… • Cost estimates for 3 actions: relocate, refurbish, built on new location Page8 / Department of the Built Environment

  10. Model Validation • Procedure • Validation methods & outcomes Page9 / Department of the Built Environment

  11. Case Study • Region of Eindhoven: • 4 municipalities • 330000 habitants • 190000 jobs • 53 business parks • 1300h business land • 180h LID • 4 large projects LNID Page10 / Department of the Built Environment

  12. Municipality tests Status Quo Scenario Page11 / Department of the Built Environment

  13. Municipality tests Scenarios • Scenarios vs 4 indicators: Page12 / Department of the Built Environment

  14. Municipality tests Scenarios Page13 / Department of the Built Environment

  15. To Conclude • ABM has been developed • Scenarios are tested Page14 / Department of the Built Environment

  16. Thanks! • b.glumac@tue.nl Page15 / Department of the Built Environment

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