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Sea-ice hazards, associated risks and implications for human activities in the Arctic

Sea-ice hazards, associated risks and implications for human activities in the Arctic . H. Eicken, A. R. Mahoney, J. Jones, M. L. Druckenmiller * Geophysical Institute & International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, USA

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Sea-ice hazards, associated risks and implications for human activities in the Arctic

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  1. Sea-ice hazards, associated risks and implications for human activities in the Arctic H. Eicken, A. R. Mahoney, J. Jones, M. L. Druckenmiller* Geophysical Institute & International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, USA e-mail: hajo.eicken@gi.alaska.edu *Now at: USAID, Washington, D.C. • Website with more information: seaice.alaska.edu/gi • Key publication:see press brief materials at EGU web site C. Nayokpuk, Shishmaref, Nov 2013

  2. Sea-ice system services & ice use • Broad definition of ice hazards based on disruption of ice services & threats to system integrity • Slow onset • Climate regulation • Coastal protection • Geologic agent • Subsistence activities • Rapid onset • Marine & coastal hazard • Transportation corridor • Platform C. Nayokpuk, Shishmaref Masterson

  3. Large reductions in summer ice concentration (1979-2013) NSIDC.org • Summer ice less extensive • Seas north of Alaska & Eastern Siberia have seen greatest change anywhere in Arctic September

  4. Coastal Protection • Sea ice protects coasts from waves & thermal subrosion of permafrost • Alaska open water season extended by >1 wk/decade • Increasing vulnerability of coast to fall storms Coastal Erosion • Sea ice highly effective sediment transport agent • Ice export may balance input from erosion (?) • More mobile ice & larger fetch increase entrainment & export USGS Eicken et al., GRL, 2000

  5. Risk: Exposure • Coastal & offshore infrastructure • Shipping routes • Fisheries • Local & indigenous use: subsistence & transport • Potential overlap of uses & hazards seaice.alaska.edu/gi

  6. Hazards & threats: Relevant sea-ice variables

  7. Assessing the state of landfastice 2008 Barrow Ice Trails Jacob Adams Crew Trail, 2008 Photo: Craig George Druckenmilleret al., 2010

  8. Key points • Evaluations of hazards in an ice use context to capture impacts of sea-ice change on human activities and loss of services provided by ice cover • Rapid change requires improved tracking & prediction of hazards • Key ice parameters  Hazards Index • Preliminary hazards survey: Hazards & maritime activities in close proximity in many areas • Observing programs for hazards assessments require sufficient spatial resolution & sampling of extreme features seaice.alaska.edu/gi

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