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Jakub Kyloušek/ Michal Pink Faculty of Social Studies

Jakub Kyloušek/ Michal Pink Faculty of Social Studies Institute for Comparative Political Research Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic e-mail: pink@fss.muni.cz.

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Jakub Kyloušek/ Michal Pink Faculty of Social Studies

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  1. Jakub Kyloušek/Michal Pink Faculty of Social Studies Institute for Comparative Political Research Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic e-mail: pink@fss.muni.cz Electoral behaviour in the Czech and Slovac RepublicCase study of politic parties ČSSD and Smer – SDin parliamentary election in 2002 – 2006

  2. I. Introduction • Methodological background • ČSSD and Smer SD • Election results • Electoral map • Interpretation of electoral support

  3. II. Methodological background • Method of detection method called area of electoral support • Simple calculation - Election results for individual political parties are arrangedaccording to percentage gain from the highest to the lowest. Then we find half of thetotal by subsequent addition in the set order. In this line we divide the examinedunits into halves, and get areas which comprise 50% of the electoral support out ofthe total number of votes in given elections. An area outlined in this way is calledarea of electoral support for a political party (Jehlička - Sýkora 1991). • The basic data file is made by results of Chamber of Deputies elections (Poslanecká sněmovna - ChD) and Slovac national Council (Slovenská národná rada – NC) • To find out the mutual cohesion and stability of electoral support will be used the basic statistical method, Pearson correlation coefficient.

  4. III. Czech Social Democratic Party • ČSSD is one of two main poles of Czech party system. The second pole forms conservatively-liberal Civic Democratic Party (ODS) • Party system in the left wing complements Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM) with restricted potential to enter into coalition with other partners. The area between ČSSD and ODS on the right-left wing (conservative) axis is filled by conservative The Christian and Democratic Union - Czechoslovak People’s Party (KDU-ČSL) and after elections in 2006 Green Party but it is too early to talk about this party as an established element of party spectrum.

  5. IV. Smer – social democracy • Smer – SD is dominant party at the left pole of Slovak party system. The second pole forms conservatively-liberal Slovak Democratic and Christian Union - Democratic Party (SDKÚ), Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) and The Party of Hungarian Coalition (SMK) • Smer – SD created together with two minor „nationalist“ parties Movement for Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) and Slovak National Party SNS governemental coalition

  6. VII. Electoral results of main political parties in the Czech Republic in 1996 - 2006 (number of mandates obtained is in brackets) In 2002 KDU-ČSL stood in election together with a smaller conservative-liberal party Union of Freedom

  7. VIII.Electoral results of main political parties in Slovakia in 1998 – 2006 (number of mandates obtained is in brackets)

  8. IX. Map - Czech republic – Districts

  9. X. Map - Slovac republic – Districts

  10. XI. Support in 2002

  11. XII. Support in 2006

  12. XIII. Support in 2002/2006

  13. XIV. Support in 2002

  14. XV. Support in 2006

  15. XVI. Support in 2002/2006

  16. Stability of regional differences of ČSSD electoral support (Pearson correlation coefficient) • Source: personal calculation Rem. Correlation is significant from the level 0,01 • Stability of regional electoral support on district support of selected • left-wing parties in 1990 and 1998 in Slovakia • Source: personal calculation Rem. a): Correlation is significant from the level 0,01 Rem. b): Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated on the basis of results within borders of 37 former districts.

  17. Interpretation of electoral support distribution • Electoral support regarding the size of settlement structure (The support of social-democrat increases in districts with lower level of urbanisation) • Economic situation - rate of unemployment(Higher support of social- democrat increase in districts with higher rate of unemployment) • Share of worshipers(In districts with lower share of inhabitants who belong to of a church the support of social-democratic parties will increase)

  18. Dependence of ČSSD and Smer(-SD) electoral gains on the urbanization rate

  19. Dependence of ČSSD and Smer(-SD) electoral gains on size structure of settlements

  20. Relation of election result and rate of • unemployment in elections in 2006

  21. Dependence of electoral gains of ČSSD and Smer(-SD) on the share of worshippers .

  22. Conclusion • Stability is much higher in the Czech Republic than in Slovak Republic • ČSSD is grounded on steadier electoral basis, primarily in Moravia, the eastern part of the Czech Republic. • Smer, whose history is shorter than ČSSD’s, had more unstable electoral base during the last two parliamentary elections and its support shifted from the west to the east of the Slovak Republic. • The first partial hypothesis, that support of social-democratic subjects grows with the distance from political centre of surveyed area, was partially confirmed by our analysis. • Electoral support of Smer increases in districts with higher rate of inhabitants living in smaller settlements but in the Czech Republic in the case of ČSSD this dependence is not so pronounced. In contrast to Smer, ČSSD has a higher share of its voters in the larger settlements as well. • Czech Republic we can affirm that it is quite the reverse, in case of higher share of worshippers in the individual districts grows also support of ČSSD. However in Slovakia the higher concentration of vote cast for Smer meant lower number of worshippers in 2002, this rate changed in the last election and positive correlation of these two variables strengthened • Despite declared common identity and international cooperation both political subjects work on different distribution of electoral support.

  23. Sources • Hendl, Jan. 2006. Přehled statistických metod zpracování dat : analýza a metaanalýza dat. Praha, Portál. • Jehlička, Petr - Sýkora, Luděk. 1991. “Stabilita regionální podpory tradičních politických stran v českých zemích (1920 – 1990)“ In: Sborník ČGS 96 (2): 81 – 95. • Kopeček, Lubomír. 2007. Politické strany na Slovensku 1989 – 2006. Brno, CDK • Kostelecký, Tomáš. 2001. “Vzestup nebo pád politického regionalismu?“. Praha: Sociologický ústav AV ČR, Working papers 2001 (9). • Krivý, V. - Feglová, V. - Balko, D.: Slovensko a jeho regióny: sociokultúrne súvislosti volebného správania. Bratislava, Médiá 1996, 414 s. • Krivý, V.: Čo prezrádzajú volebné výsledky ? Parlamentné voľby 1998. Bratislava, Inštitút pre verejné otázky 1999, 131 s. • Sartori, Giovanni. 1976. Parties and Party Systems. A Framework for Analysis, I., Cambridge University Press. • Czech Statistical Office (Český statistický úřad - SCZO), http://www.czso.cz/, http://www.volby.cz • Slovak Statistical Office (Štatistický úrad Slovenskej republiky) http://www.statistics.sk/,

  24. Thank you for attention • pink@fss.muni.cz, kylousek@fss.muni.cz • http://ispo.fss.muni.cz

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