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HPC QPF Ensemble RFC Model Output and CR Implementation Plans

HPC QPF Ensemble RFC Model Output and CR Implementation Plans. Mississippi River Basin Fusion Team National HIC Meeting Thursday, July 9, 2009. QPF Ensemble River Model Output and CR Implementation Plans Outline. HPC QPF 95% Confidence Intervals QPF Ensemble River Model Output Example

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HPC QPF Ensemble RFC Model Output and CR Implementation Plans

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  1. HPC QPF Ensemble RFC Model Output and CR Implementation Plans Mississippi River Basin Fusion Team National HIC Meeting Thursday, July 9, 2009

  2. QPF Ensemble River Model Output and CR Implementation PlansOutline • HPC QPF 95% Confidence Intervals • QPF Ensemble River Model Output Example • Background • Current Status • Future Plans

  3. HPC QPF 95% Confidence Intervals HPHPC QPF C QPF An HPC study found a good correlation between the absolute error in their 6-hour QPF and the corresponding spread in the QPF generated by the SREF. Given this relationship, they can determine the spread in the SREF QPFs and forecastthe error in the corresponding HPC QPF. Maximum Absolute Error with 95% Confidence HPC QPF

  4. HPC QPF 95% Confidence Intervals Minimum QPF with 95% Confidence HPC QPF Maximum Absolute Error with 95% Confidence = - = HPC QPF HPC QPF HPC QPF Maximum Absolute Error with 95% Confidence Maximum QPF with 95% Confidence with 95% Confidence = = +

  5. QPF Ensemble River Model OutputExample Selected QPF values are displayed. QPF is color coded with legend. SVG graphics display traces interactively. Selected time series will raise to top as bold line.

  6. QPF Ensemble River Model OutputBackground

  7. QPF Ensemble River Model OutputBackground…continued

  8. QPF Ensemble River ModelBackground • NCRFC began project in 2006 to meet WFO requests • Customers have given very positive feedback • Fulfills MVS need at St. Louis for barge industry • Used in daily WFO operations and EM briefings • Used by NWD to assist in managing Spring Pulse • Operational experience shows gross over-simulation has not been a problem • Limited verification at NCRFC shows 95% max QPF verifies more than 5% of time • Database processing currently takes up to four hours (originally took 1-2 hours)

  9. QPF Ensemble River Model OutputCR Implementation Plan • Determine optimum, efficient method to generate QPF Ensemble Model Output in timely fashion (within 30 minutes) at NCRFC, MBRFC & LMRFC • Looking at centralized operations at CRH • O & M must be sustainable • Determine option by end of August 2009 • Provide adequate background materials/training to ensure max traces are understood • Place watermark disclaimer on graphics • Provide QPF ensemble river model output to EMs via unadvertised url

  10. QPF Ensemble River Model OutputProcessing Options • Option #1 Upload XML output to Centralized SVGA Application Server. Centralized SVGA Application Server will output SVGA files to CRH file server and will be served from CRH HTTP services. • Option#2 Process SVGA graphics at each RFC and upload finished SVGA graphics to CRH file server. SVGA graphics will be served from CRH HTTP services • Option#3 Process SVGA graphics at each RFC and upload finished SVGA graphics to RFC file server. SVGA graphics will be served from RFC HTTP services • Option#4 Do Nothing

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