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Production Cost Model Simulations of Future Mid-Columbia Wholesale Power Market Prices Pacific Northwest Regional Econom

Production Cost Model Simulations of Future Mid-Columbia Wholesale Power Market Prices Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference. Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council May 16, 2008. AURORA xmp Electric Market Model Configuration and Inputs.

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Production Cost Model Simulations of Future Mid-Columbia Wholesale Power Market Prices Pacific Northwest Regional Econom

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  1. Production Cost Model Simulations of Future Mid-Columbia Wholesale Power Market PricesPacific Northwest Regional Economic Conference Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council May 16, 2008

  2. AURORAxmp Electric Market Model Configuration and Inputs 18 load-resource zones with transmission Demand forecasts (net conservation) Existing generating resources New generating resource options Natural gas and coal price forecasts CO2 emission price forecasts State restrictions on new coal-fired generation Resource additions needed to achieve state RPS targets Capacity planning reserve margin targets April 29, 2008 2 2

  3. AURORAxmp Electric Market ModelModes and Logic Capacity Expansion Mode: Selects optimal mix of resource additions for meeting future demand Planning Period: 2007 – 2031 Simulation: Every 3rd Hour; M, W, F, Sun; Every 2nd Week Hourly Dispatch Mode: Determines hourly market-clearing wholesale power prices Planning Period: 2007 – 2026 Simulation: Every Hour; Every Day; Every Week April 29, 2008 3 3

  4. Interim Base CaseWECC Resource Expansion 2007-26 4

  5. Interim High Capital Cost CaseWECC Resource Expansion 2007-26 5

  6. Interim High Capital Cost Case PNW Resource Expansion 2007-26 April 29, 2008 6 6

  7. Base Case Price ComparisonsMid-C Annual Average Prices $65 5th Plan Final $60 Biennial Assessment $55 $50 Draft Interim Base Case 2006$/MWh $45 $40 Final Interim Base Case $35 Interim High Capital Cost $30 Case 2007 2012 2017 2022

  8. Sensitivity Case Price ComparisonsMid-C Annual Average Prices $65 Interim Base Case $60 Interim High Capital Cost Case $55 Interim High CO2 Price $50 Case 2006$/MWh $45 High Capital Cost/High CO2 Price Case $40 Interim High Fuel Price Case $35 Interim No Incremental $30 RPS Case 2007 2012 2017 2022 April 29, 2008 8

  9. Impact of Incremental RPS Resource Additions on NW Wholesale Power Market Price(e.g., Interim High Capital Cost Case: Jan. 15, 2020 HE 7:00 P.M.) 9

  10. Sensitivity Case CO2 ProductionWECC Annual Emissions

  11. Sensitivity Case CO2 ProductionNW Annual Emissions

  12. Impact of High CO2 Prices on NW Supply(e.g., Interim High Capital Cost Case: Jan. 15, 2020 HE 7:00 P.M.) April 29, 2008 12 12

  13. Interim Wholesale Power Price Forecast Paperhttp://www.nwcouncil.org/library/2008/2008-05.htm

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