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This report provides an overview of recent rainfall and current conditions of the Asian-Australian Monsoon system, as well as predictions for the upcoming weeks. It highlights precipitation patterns over the past 90 days, 30 days, and 7 days, along with atmospheric circulation and model forecasts. The report also discusses the Asian Monsoon's demise and the onset of the Australian Monsoon.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 8, 2018 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, with the summer monsoon officially ending in September and the expectation underway for the onset of the Northeast monsoon over Southern India, below normal rainfall deficits appeared over southwestern and interior southern peninsular India, a small region in interior central eastern China, southeastern Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly in Bangladesh, Burma, Japan, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, severe rainfall deficits are noted across large parts of central India, in small parts of eastern China, Thailand, large parts of Indonesian islands and Malaysia. Elsewhere rainfall received was at normal to above normal levels.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below normal everywhere in the region, large deficits occurred over southern/peninsular and central India and most of Indonesia.. According to the India Met. Dept, since the first of October till today (first week of October), All India Rainfall has been has been 67% below normal, but Tamilnadu’s rainfall has been in excess.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, with the summer monsoon officially ending in September and the expectation underway for the onset of the Northeast monsoon over Southern India, below normal rainfall deficits appeared over southwestern and interior southern peninsular India, a small region in interior central eastern China, southeastern Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly in Bangladesh, Burma, Japan, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, and Vietnam. For the past 30 days, severe rainfall deficits are noted across large parts of central India, in small parts of eastern China, Thailand, large parts of Indonesian islands and Malaysia. Elsewhere rainfall received was at normal to above normal levels. In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below normal everywhere in the region, large deficits occurred over southern/peninsular and central India and most of Indonesia.. According to the India Met. Dept, since the first of October till today (first week of October), All India Rainfall has been has been 67% below normal, but Tamilnadu’s rainfall has been in excess. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts below normal rainfall over much of the region except over southeastern China and deep southern India.
