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Biofuel transitions and global governance: lessons from Brazil

Biofuel transitions and global governance: lessons from Brazil Markku Lehtonen Sussex Energy Group SPRU, University of Sussex. Outline. Power: centre-periphery perspective (theory) Power: Brazil and bioethanol (practice) Conclusions: centre-periphery and transitions in theory and practice.

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Biofuel transitions and global governance: lessons from Brazil

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  1. Biofuel transitions and global governance: • lessons from Brazil • Markku LehtonenSussex Energy GroupSPRU, University of Sussex

  2. Outline • Power: centre-periphery perspective (theory) • Power: Brazil and bioethanol (practice) • Conclusions: centre-periphery and transitions in theory and practice

  3. Why study Brazilian ethanol transition? • Largest and oldest biofuel experiment • Current internationalisation of biofuels governance • Proalcool brought about a significant change in regime, but • which regime? • radical or incremental? • sustainable or not? • Power relations crucially shaped the evolution of the programme & determine its sustainability

  4. Why centre-periphery approach to power? • Defining the regime: “centre and periphery” instead of “inside and outside” • Simple model, yet recognises many dimensions of power • Highly unequal, archaic power structures in Brazil (intra and inter-regional) • Shifts in regime & centre-periphery internationally

  5. Structure of imperialism (Galtung 1971) Cc Centre Cp Pc Periphery Harmony of interest Pp Disharmony of interest

  6. Feudal centre-periphery structure (Galtung 1971) P12 P11 C1 P21 P41 C2 C4 P22 P42 C3 P33 P31 P32

  7. Dimensions of power • Rank = resource power • Income, training, degree of organisation, type of work, geographical location • Relations of interaction = who wins & who loses in the exchange? • economic, political, military, communication, cultural and ideological exchange • Structures of interaction = position in networks • Communication, transport, etc. networks • Sum of relations of interaction

  8. Brazil at the launching of Proalcool (1975) • Oil and sugar crises • Car industry & Brazilian economic miracle: legitimacy of military government at stake • Ethanol as a niche in transport fuel supply regime at least since the 30s: symbiotic relationship between regime and niche • NE leading sugar producer until the early 50s; from then on, inexorable advancement of São Paulo • Centre-periphery relationship between SP and NE – in all sectors

  9. Phases of Proalcool programme

  10. Levels of C-P relations • Transport fuel supply regime • Centre = oil-based regime • Periphery = ethanol • Sugar and alcohol sector • Centre = São Paulo • Periphery = Northeast • International biofuel regime?

  11. Power relations in the transport fuel supply regime (I) Petrobras Car industry Economy and planning min. Army Cc Cp SP sugar and alcohol industrialists IAA Distillery manufacturers Car owners (Cm) Env authorities Pc NE sugar & alcohol sector Harmony of interest Pp Disharmony of interest

  12. Power relations in the transport fuel supply regime (II) • Rise of the ethanol niche: integral part of the regime • Early phases: central roles of Petrobras, car-owning middle class, NE sugar lobby -> military government’s power (dependency on strong lobbies’ power and support) • ‘Winners’ 1986 -: SP industrialists, economic & env authorities, R&D institutes, MoST • Accelerated decline of NE since 1986, but differences between dimensions of power

  13. Power relations in the sugar and alcohol sector (I) Sugar & alcohol industrialists Copersucar Distillery manufacturing SP Cc Cp Sugar&alcohol industrialists Inependent cane growers (Pm) IAA Independent cane growers (Cm) Farm and factory workers CETESB NE Pc Farm & factory workers Regional env authority Harmony of interest Pp Disharmony of interest

  14. Power relations in the sugar and alcohol sector (II) • Centres in both SP and NE benefited from Proalcool • Centre of Periphery (NE) suffered 1986-2003; future? • Ambiguous impacts on the peripheries (workers): employment yes, but working conditions? • Consolidation of the centre-periphery structure, first through state subsidies, then with subsidy removal? • Demand up since 2003: impacts on C-P relations?

  15. Conclusions: theory • C-P illustrative in analysing sugar and alcohol sector; more questionable with regard to transport fuel regime • Allows analysing the multiple layers of power relations between and within regime & niches • Coordinated vs. uncoordinated regime responses; contested visions, framings and SD definitions: C-P relations help to explain? • Competition or cooperation between niches (periphery-periphery)? Bioethanol, biodiesel, natural gas? • C-P as analogy, rather than a theory of niche-regime relationships

  16. Conclusions: sustainability and biofuels governance • Transition or not? Radical or incremental? • Importance of ideological, cultural aspects of power: military & sovereignty, liberalism, modernisation & private car, environment • Interaction between forms of power • What happens in the NE when biofuels governance goes global? • NGOs and Western governments’ power? • Role of the Brazilian state? • Ways of breaking the unequal power structures: Galtung, transition theory… • Empowerment & transition management – where & by whom?

  17. US and EU governments Oil companies Biotech firms Global energy/biofuel regime Enviro&soc NGOs Car-owners Petrobras Car industry Military Energy ministry Econ authorities Proalc admin Sugar/alcohol regime Farmer lobbies Transport fuel regime Car-owning middle class Enviro authorities Sugar industrialists Labourers Sugar barons NE SP Labourers

  18. Future of global biofuels and Brazil • Sustainability transition or not? Regime definition and criteria of assessment • Power • Centre-periphery framework can be helpful in conceptualising power in socio-technical transitions, but problems: Centre-periphery = niche-regime? • Global biofuels governance • Need to look beyond GHG and ecological impacts • Accountability structures: certification? • Who is to participate in the definition of criteria of certification/assessment? • Can the purposive transition of the 70s be repeated and replicated, to help reach climate objectives?

  19. Sugar in the Northeast of Brazil • Sugar cultivated in the NE since the mid-1500s • Quasi-feudal worker-employer relationships • Technologically backward • Regional & local politics dominated by ‘sugar barons’ • Among the poorest regions of the country: provider of cheap labour and resources to the wealthy Southeast

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