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400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200

CO2 (ppm). 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200. Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations reached 395 parts per million in 2013. Carbon dioxide concentrations over the last 800,000 years.

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400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200

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  1. CO2 (ppm) 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations reached 395 parts per million in 2013 Carbon dioxide concentrations over the last 800,000 years • 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Thousands of years ago

  2. The State of the Climate report • Joint Bureau and CSIRO publication • Previous reports, 2010 and 2012 • Seeks to convey complex information to a general audience • Accompanied by further material online

  3. Evidence of climate change is unequivocal Evidence that the Earth’s climate continues to warm is unequivocal. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that it is extremely likely that the dominant cause of recent warming is human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and not natural climate variability.

  4. Carbon dioxide emissions

  5. Changes in the global climate system Global mean temperature has risen by 0.85˚C from 1880 to 2012. The amount of heat stored in the global oceans has risen, and global mean sea level has increased 225 mm from 1880 to 2012. 1.With regional variation (almost all glaciers worldwide losing mass but some gaining) but overall net loss. 2.With regional variation (large loss in the Arctic, small net gain in the Antarctic) but overall net loss.

  6. Evidence of climate change is unequivocal Warming of the world’s oceans accounts for more than 90% of additional energy accumulated from the enhanced greenhouse effect.

  7. Ocean heat content

  8. Sea level

  9. Warming trends • Australia’s climate has warmed, and the frequency of extreme weather has changed, with more extreme heat and less extreme cold.

  10. Annual mean temperature changes

  11. Sea-surface and surface air temperature

  12. Distribution of monthly temperatures

  13. We are setting more temperature records The frequency of cold records has declined The frequency of hot records has increased dramatically since 1900 Number of coldest on records Number of hottest on records

  14. Exceptional heat is becoming more frequent Number of days when the national temperature was in the hottest (99th) percentile

  15. January 2013 heatwave Over 70% of the continent recording temperatures in excess of 42 °C Maximum temperatures – first half of Jan 2013 Summer heatwaves Black Saturday 2009 heatwave Record-breaking heatwave across southeastern Australia Maximum temperatures – 27 Jan – 8 Feb 2009

  16. 2013, a year of heatwaves Days > 99th percentile for average temperature: 1911-1950: 20 days 2013: 23 days

  17. Increased rainfall? Rainfall averaged across Australia has slightly increased since 1900, with the largest increases in the northwest since 1970.

  18. Increased rainfall? Northern wet season (Oct-Apr) rainfall deciles since 1995-96

  19. Drying across the south Rainfall has declined since 1970 in the southwest, dominated by reduced winter rainfall. Autumn and early winter rainfall has mostly been below average in the southeast since 1990.

  20. Drying across the south Southern wet season (Apr-Nov) rainfall deciles since 1996

  21. More fire weather There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a longer fire season, across large parts of Australia since the 1970s.

  22. More fire weather, a longer fire season Forest fire danger index (FFDI) Trends 1973-2010

  23. Projections for Australia

  24. Some future warming is now certain Historical RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 Global-mean temperature Temperature (Celsius) Emissions scenarios make little difference to 2050 Year

  25. Australian climate projections for 2100 Annual temperature change April to September rainfall change rainfall temperature RCP2.6 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP8.5 Low emissions High emissions Low emissions High emissions Percentage rainfall change for 2081–2100 with respect to 1986–2005 Temperature change in degrees for 2081–2100 with respect to 1986–2005

  26. Projections of Australian annual temperature Observed annual temperature in white RCP4.5 projected annual temperature

  27. Small shifts, but potential change in climate zones Wimmera Central Victoria Climatological rainfall map based on around 2 degrees of warming and more than 20% drier

  28. Small shifts, but potential change in climate zones Central Darling Wimmera Climatological rainfall map based on around 2 degrees of warming and more than 20% drier

  29. Thank you …

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