Salford City Council Treasury Management Presentation to Members

1. Salford City CouncilTreasury Management Presentation to Members Richard Bason, Regional Director Sector Treasury Services December 2009

2. Sector Treasury Services Ltd This presentation has been produced solely for the use of clients of Sector Treasury Services Ltd. The presentation itself, or any of the information contained therein, should not be disclosed to any third party without the prior written approval of Sector Treasury Services Ltd.  Strictly private and confidential. Sector exists to provide its clients with advice on borrowing and investment. We are not legal experts and we have not obtained legal advice in giving our opinions and interpretations in this presentation. Clients are advised to seek expert legal advice before taking action as a result of any advice given in this paper. Whilst Sector makes every effort to ensure that all the information it provides is accurate and complete, it does not guarantee the correctness or the due receipt of such information and will not be held responsible for any errors therein or omissions arising there from. All information supplied by Sector should only be used as a factor to assist in the making of a business decision and should not be used as a sole basis for any decision. The Client should not regard the advice or information as a substitute for the exercise by the Client of its own judgement.

3. Agenda • CIPFA Treasury Management Code • The Prudential Code • Integrated Treasury Management Strategy • Latest Treasury Management Issues to be Considered

4. 1. CIPFA Treasury Management Code

5. Why is a Code needed? • Need to maintain high and consistent standards in looking after public funds and debt across 500 local authorities • Total investments @ 31.3.2008 of £30bn+ • Total debt o/s @ 31.3.2008 £57bn+(£51bn with PWLB at 31.3.09) Local authorities are BIG players in the London financial markets

6. The 2001 Code’s “eight purposes” • To assist in the development and maintenance of firm foundations for T.M. activities and thereby add to public credibility • To emphasise effective risk management • To encourage the pursuit of best value through the use of performance measurement • To enable CIPFA members to fulfill their professional and contractual responsibilities • To facilitate consistent TM policies and practices in the public sector • To enable consistent auditing of TM matters • To further the confidence and understanding of organisations dealing with public service organisations • To foster debate on the suitability of TM statutory/regulatory regimes

7. T.M. Code requires each council to: • Adopt the Code • Create and maintain: - • Treasury Management Policy Statement (TMPS) • Treasury Management Practices (TMPs) • Receive specified annual reports (TMSS/MRP Policy/Stewardship Report) • Delegate responsibility for the treasury management function to specified parts of the organisation and officers

8. Treasury Management Policy Statement This organisation defines its treasury management activities as: “ The management of the authority’s cash flows, its banking, money market and capital market transactions; the effective control of the risks associated with those activities; and the pursuit of optimum performance consistent with those risks”.

9. 12 Treasury Management Practices • TMP 1 Treasury risk management • TMP 2 Best value and performance measurement • TMP 3 Decision - making and analysis • TMP 4 Approved instruments, methods and techniques • TMP 5 Organisation, clarity and segregation of responsibilities & dealing arrangements • TMP 6 Reporting requirements and management information arrangements • TMP 7 Budgeting, accounting and audit arrangements • TMP 8 Cash and cash flow management • TMP 9 Anti Money laundering • TMP 10 Staff training and qualifications • TMP 11 Use of external service providers • TMP 12 Corporate governance

10. Annual Council approval of the following:- • Treasury Management Strategy Statement (TMSS) – overall strategy for borrowing and investing for the year ahead (to be supplemented with a semi annual report) • Annual MRP Statement (from 2008/09) • Annual Investment Strategy – determination of which investment instruments to use (can be combined with TMSS) • Annual Report – review of previous financial year (undertake by end of September 2009) Members have a key role to play in approving all these treasury management reports and policies

11. 2. CIPFA Prudential Code

12. The 2004 Prudential Code system • New system to control capital expenditure started 1.4.04 • Allows LA’s, for the first time, to borrow additionally for capital projects without Government consent provided they can afford to service the debt without extra Government support • What are the most cost effective and beneficial projects to spend capital resources on? • What are the most cost effective ways of financing them?

13. Objectives of the Prudential Code TO ENSURE THAT:- • Capital expenditure plans are affordable (implications for council tax) • External borrowing and other long term liabilities are within prudent and sustainable levels (cost of interest etc) • Treasury management decisions are taken in accordance with good practice

14. Key controls under the Prudential Code Operational Boundary • Total external debt – the most likely level – NOT worst case Authorised Limit • Total external debt – the maximum permitted level i.e. “sufficient to allow for unusual cash movements” Capital Financing Requirement – the “Acid Test” • The underlying need to borrow i.e. the amount of capital expenditure which has not yet been charged to ratepayers or financed from grant etc

15. Setting of Prudential Indicators • Every local authority must set Prudential Indicators (affordability and prudence) • For 3 years forward (minimum) • Taking into account:- • Capital receipts, grants, revenue contributions etc • Revenue impact of capital expenditure – short & long term • Interest payable on borrowing and receivable on investments • Alternative means of financing capital expenditure or acquiring the use of capital assets

16. Prudential Code summary • There is virtually no limit on how much an authority can spend on capital expenditure if by so doing it can generate financial savings on its current level of revenue expenditure which pay for the additional financing costs. • A LA now has the freedom to choose the most cost effective method of financing the acquisition / use of capital assets. • It can now focus on whole life costs of capital assets rather than short term capital restrictions • Asset management and best value are now key policies It is for MEMBERS to approve the parameters within which treasury management is to take place

17. 3. Integrated Treasury Management Strategy

18. Investing

19. Key principles for investing under investment guidance • All investments split into two categories ‘Specified’ and ‘Non-Specified’ • SLY - three key principles:- • Security: the top priority: specified investments will include bodies or investment schemes with a ‘high credit rating’ (not defined) • Liquidity also key to prudent investment • Yield: optimum return - still need to “seek the highest rate of return consistent with proper levels of risk”

20. Specified Investments - principles • High security and high liquidity - under 1 year to maturity • Institutions or investment schemes with a high credit rating • Do not score as capital expenditure (or capital receipts when mature / sold) • Require minimal procedural formalities (para 20) • Justification of use of each class of instrument NOT required in the Annual Investment Strategy

21. Specified Investments (example) Term deposits with: - • Highly credit rated banks and building societies • Local authorities • UK government - Debt Management Agency Deposit Facility (DMADF) • Money market funds

22. Non-Specified Investments - principles • Investments in excess of 1 year to maturity • Investments with non credit rated institutions will be ‘non-specified’ e.g. most building societies • Use of each class of non specified investment will need to be justified in the Annual Investment Strategy • No Government intention to discourage local authorities from using non-specified investments • Some investment classes score as capital expenditure

23. Non-Specified Investments - instruments • Deposits with unrated deposit takers e.g. most building societies BUYING PAPER INSTRUMENTS: - • Bonds issued by Multi Lateral Development Banks (MLDBs) (- Euro Sterling) • Corporate Bonds

24. Annual Investment Strategy • To be approved by the full council (or nearest equivalent if that does not exist) • Before the start of the financial year • It is to set out HOW the authority will manage its investments • And how it will give priority to security • And to liquidity – setting maturity limits • How ‘high credit rating’ is to be defined • Which investment instruments are specified investments i.e. may be used with little formality • Whether / which non specified investments may be prudently used • How interest rate risk is to be managed - expectations for movements in interest rates and the authority’s strategy for investments

25. What are credit ratings? • They are opinions issued by professional organisations of an entity’s ability to punctually service and repay debt obligations • Ratings provide international capital markets with a globally consistent framework for comparing the credit quality of institutions

26. Fitch rating agency ratings • Long-term rating – ability to promptly pay all obligations for periods in excess of 13 months. Range from AAA to D (default) • Short-term rating - ability to promptly pay all obligations for periods less than 13 months. Range F1+ to D (default) • Individual rating – assessment of the strength of a bank to withstand difficulties without any support. Range from A to F (failed). • Support rating – ability and propensity of a parent or state to provide support should a bank get into difficulty. Range from 1 to 5.

27. Sector’s 2009 credit rating matrix

28. Austria Austria France France Netherlands Netherlands Sweden Sweden Canada Germany Switzerland Canada Germany Norway Switzerland Denmark Singapore U.K. Denmark Finland Luxembourg Luxembourg Spain Spain U.S.A. U.S.A. Finland Investment options in the current economic environment - risk aversion Diversification – Use Sovereign Credit Ratings – 15 AAA Rated countries…for now (UK on negative watch with S&P)

29. Investment options in the current economic environment – is risk aversion just using the UK?

30. Investment conclusions – risk aversion • Top down approach to credit quality • Move away from sole reliance on credit ratings for individual banks • Addition of AAA rated sovereign ratings filter is an aid in placement of investments • Monitoring of Credit Default Swaps spreads helps identify countries or banks which may be at risk of significant credit rating downgrades • If in doubt, do the safestoption…use DMADF etc

31. Borrowing

32. Salford City Council borrowing position • Authorised Limit - 2010 £744m • Operational Boundary - 2010 £644m • Capital Financing Requirement (underlying need to borrow for capital purposes) - 2010 £445m total, of which £87m is HRA • Total borrowing - £458m at 2.97% (average 36 years) - The current borrowing position reflects the strong balance sheet of the Council - The Council is able to minimise net interest payments and reduce credit risk near-term by continuing to temporarily use its cash surpluses (reserves, provisions, positive cash flow etc)

33. Salford City Council - current borrowing position

34. Salford City Council – issues to consider regarding market loans • £298m of the Council’s borrowing is in the shape of market loans • These were/are generally a cheaper borrowing option than the PWLB alternative but are less flexible • The majority of the Council’s market loans are LOBOs • For the lower rate paid, they provide the lender with the option of having the loan repaid prematurely on certain dates (call dates). There is no penalty for this early redemption • The Council has a debt maturity strategy that ensures that over time a greater proportion of the portfolio will become PWLB loans – providing more certainty albeit probably at a marginally higher cost (still low overall)

35. Basics to be considered in respect of external borrowing • How much needs to be borrowed? • Over what period of time? • Which type of loan is most appropriate (PWLB/market/short-term)? • Which maturity duration is most attractive? • What is your view of short/medium/long-term interest rates? • What are the risks to your forecast? • Set a target rate for the loan duration you settle on? • Fixed or variable rate borrowing? • 3 year timeframe but no borrowing in advance of need without explicit member agreement

36. Key treasury management risks at the present time • Deepening of pessimism over affordability of gilt issuance by UK Government causes major sell off of gilts. Long gilt yields rise • Post recession inflation causes major sell off of gilts, yields rise Conversely: • Double dip recession causes a ‘flight to quality’ from equities to gilts; long gilt yields < 4% • Government / BoE embarks on additional quantitative easing to drive bond and gilt prices up, yields down. Short term interest rates remain low for longer

37. Summary of options in respect of an integrated TM strategy • Undertake selective new borrowing – favour short to medium dated or temporary borrowing • Consider borrowing LOBOs out of forward dates. This would provide the Council with the flexibility to lock in a proportion of its borrowing requirement at current low levels • Forward deal structures include loans that run at close to Bank Rate for the next two to three years if the Council wishes to manage its interest rate risk

38. Basics of debt rescheduling • Debt rescheduling is the premature repayment of a loan and its replacement with another loan of a different duration • The decision to restructure is driven by the objectives of actively managing a loans portfolio to generate interest savings whilst maintaining a prudent debt maturity profile • The driver for the implementation of the strategy is the shape of the yield curve • When a loan is restructured there are two core elements to consider: - The interest rate differential between repaid and replacement loan - The discount rate that applies to the residual term of a repaid loan

39. Basics of debt rescheduling – premiums and discounts Discounts • If a 25 year loan is running at, say, 4.5% and the repayment discount rate for the residual term is 5% (this rate will be specified daily), a discount (a credit) of, say, £1m will be achieved • Discounts are written down over 10 years as a maximum for General Fund purposes – so the £1m discount in our example is written down at £100,000 per annum for 10 years Premiums • If, however, a 25 year loan is running at, say, 5.5% and the repayment discount rate for the residual term is 5%, a premium (a penalty) of, say, £1m is payable • Premiums are written down over either the life of the repaid or replacement loan (the choice is the Council’s). So assuming we write the premium down over 25 years the charge to revenue is £40,000 per annum for 25 years Other considerations • There are also some rather complex apportionments of interest and discount/premia that need to be made between the General Fund and the Housing Revenue Account and cashflow funding of premiums etc…but we won’t worry about that today!

40. And Finally…4. Latest Treasury Management Issues to be Considered

41. CLG Committee report on Local Authority investments(November 2009) – key conclusions and recommendations • Inappropriate to restrict LA investment options • CIPFA reviewing TM Code of Practice • To confirm the need for an Audit Committee with specific responsibility for Treasury Management functions • To confirm the ability to appoint non elected experts to serve/chair the Audit Committee • To confirm the limitations of credit ratings, and their use within the wider context of financial and economic information and advice • Member training on Treasury Management matters to be a priority • CLG to provide clarification in respect of the appropriate use of credit ratings • In respect of Treasury Management, the Audit Commission, CIPFA and FSA to clarify their roles as regulatory and advisory bodies • Government to carry out an urgent review of the arrangements for early repayment of debt to the PWLB

42. Questions?