UKCES: Skills for Jobs and Growth Challenges for Innovative Training: Quality and Competitiveness

1. UKCES: Skills for Jobs and Growth Challenges for Innovative Training: Quality and Competitiveness Fundacion Real Fabrica de Tapices, Madrid 24/25 November 2009 Professor Mike Campbell OBE Director of Research and Policy UK Commission for Employment and Skills

2. Outline • UKCES: The UK Commission for Employment and Skills • Prosperity: Jobs, Productivity and Skills • International Benchmarks of Skill Levels: Today and Tomorrow • Beyond Skills Upgrading: The importance of ‘Matching’ and ‘Demand’ • Key Messages: an agenda for action • The Way Ahead?

3. The UK Commission for Employment and Skills • Assess (e.g. Ambition 2020) • Agenda (e.g. National Strategic Skills Audit) • Advise (e.g. Skills Strategy) • Advocate (e.g. Now is the time)

4. Prosperity = Jobs x Productivity High employment/ high productivity High employment/ low productivity Employment: Employment populations ratio 2007, all persons 15-64 Low employment/ high productivity Low employment/ low productivity Productivity: GDP per hour worked (US$ at current prices), 2007 Source: UKCES, Ambition 2020: World Class Skills and Jobs for the UK, 2009, pp 21-22

5. Other Measures of Performance Measure Country Note1 The Global Competitiveness Report 2009-10, World Economic Forum Note2 World Competitiveness Yearbook 2009, Institute for Management Development

7. (continued)

8. The International Skills Position

9. Participation of Adults in Lifelong Learning

10. Our Progress and Current Position • UK Position: • 15th in OECD for ‘older workers’ • 21st in OECD for ‘younger workers’ Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008, Table A1.2a

11. Our Prospects Projected International Skills Position 2020

12. Projected International Skills Position 2020 …… cont’d

13. Beyond Skills Upgrading: The importance of ‘Matching’ and ‘Demand’ • It is crucial to raise skill levels – more people and to higher levels • But: these increased skill levels only make economic sense for people and for business, if there are the jobs available to make use of those skills Total requirement qualification level, projected change 2006-20, in millions, EU-25+ Past and likely future qualification structure of jobs, shares in %, EU-25+

14. Beyond Skills Upgrading: The importance of ‘Matching’ and ‘Demand’ • Jobs/Skills Mismatch (1) Skill Shortages and Skill Gaps • Professional/Technical • Employability • Jobs/Skills Mismatch (2) Over-Qualification/Under-Employment • Unemployment • Under-utilisation of skills • Jobs/Skills Mismatch (3) The demand for high level skills (skill requirements) exceeds supply (skills availability) BUT: • Variations in level of demand for high level skills; • Relatively slow increase in demand (skilled jobs/skill requirements); • Relatively rapid increase in supply (skilled people/skills available) • Demand: Business Ambition

15. Slow progress to a high skill economy: change in skilled jobs between 1998 and 2006 Source: Ambition 2020, Charts 7.1 & 7.2, pp 115-116 - OECD, Education at a Glance 2008, Table A1.3a and Table 1.6

16. Difference between Skills Supply & Demand:Change between 1998 and 2006 Source: Ambition 2020, Chart 7.1, p 115 - OECD, Education at a Glance 2008, Table A1.3a and Table 1.6

17. Business Ambition • We need to go beyond: • Skills upgrading; and • a better match between skill requirements and skills availability • Business Ambition: Skills as a ‘derived’demand • Economic Policy • Skill Utilisation • Management and Leadership • The ‘virtuous circle’ of raising skills demand and supply

18. Key Messages: An Agenda for Action Positive Economic and Social Outcomes Economic Performance Employment Reduced Inequality Productivity Supply of Skills Employment Demand Learning provision Skills Attainment Potential Workforce Required Workforce Business Strategy Economy – level/structure MatchMismatch Accredited (Qualification) Informal (Training) Management & Leadership Skills Utilisation • Shortages and skills gaps • Unemployment and Inactivity • ‘Over-skilled’ / ‘Under-employed • Migration Negative Economic and Social Outcomes Industrial Policy Economic Policy Skills Investment Individual, Employer, Government Other Drivers Guidance – firms & people Supply Demand Jobs

19. Maximising individual motivation and opportunity for skills and sustainable employment The Way Ahead? For the journey in and on in work

20. The Way Ahead? • Raise Skill Levels: Our People • Raise Aspirations: The Case for Skills • High Quality Provision and Progression • High Quality Information, Advice and Guidance (Counselling) • Empower Learners: Choice and Personal Learning Accounts

21. Increasing employer ambition, engagement and investment in skills World beating businesses

22. The Way Ahead? • Raise Skill Demand: Our Employers • Increase Ambition: The Business Case for Skills • High Value Added, High Growth Businesses, Leadership and Management • Labour Market Intelligence, Foresight and Matching Supply and Demand • Employer Networks, Collaboration and ‘High Performance Workplaces’

23. Building a more strategic, agile and labour market led employment and skills system Invest in the wisdom of customers Skills Market

24. The Way Ahead? • Improve Provision and the ‘System’ • Increase ‘Responsiveness’: Trust Providers and use ‘outcome based’ Performance Measures • Prioritise Public Funding towards Economically Valuable Skills and increase ‘Co-Investment’ • Create a flexible, Module Qualifications System relevant/responsive to Labour Market needs