Managing Floods and Droughts: Water in the South East 30 th November 2004

1. Managing Floods and Droughts: Water in the South East 30th November 2004 University of Westminster Louise Every

2. Scope of the research The Commission is concerned with the impact that climate change and current and proposed housing developments in the SE will have on water resources, flood risk and flood management. Emphasis on: public water supply and household demand management, flooding and development Not on: abstraction regimes and licensing, industrial and agricultural sectors, water treatment and quality (in detail).

3. Climate change – hotter, drier summers, wetter, milder winters, more extreme weather, rising sea level Housing growth – amount, design and location Population growth - Increases resource demand Economic growth - Increases consumption, but needed to fund adaptation and innovation Drivers of change in the SE

4. Current situation

5. High but stabilising per capita consumption • High and increasing overall water demand • Leakage levels generally under control • Except Thames and Three Valleys • SE metering rates relatively low • Several companies predict <50% by 2025 • EA doubts 2003/04 and 2024/25 targets will be met Water Consumption in the SE

6. Is there enough water…? Future scenarios work Prepared by the Water Resources in the SE Group for SE Plan Overall conclusion ‘Increased demand from new development in the South East can only be accommodated through a combination of demand and supply side activities’ But…

7. Is there enough water…? Caveats and considerations • Not considered impacts of London and other region’s housing growth • Supply and demand measures required • Enabling mechanisms required to increase demand management • Assumes 55% of SE households metered by 2020 • Planning permissions and abstraction licenses needed • Uncertainty over climate change impacts • Adequate funding needed Assumptions and uncertainties • Sustainability reductions – uncertainty remains • Water transfers – some un-costed and unverified but may be viable • Report does not refer to sewage treatment – possible constraint to development in certain localities

8. Getting back on the ‘twin track approach’ • Increasing supply • Managing demand Policy issues

9. Scope for storing more winter water • Reservoirs – pro’s and con’s • Transfers – west to east, feasibility and cost • Timing is crucial • Planning process and public involvement implications • Consider ‘Assured Water Supply’ approach Policy issues – increasing supply

10. Expand water metering and use smarter tariffs • Incentivising • Fairer, more progressive • EA - stronger role in assessing water scarcity status • Building regulations • Mandatory 20% water efficiency in regulations • Higher in national code – review voluntary status • The role of planning • Water efficiency a material consideration in planning • A water efficiency commitment – SE regional pilot • A Water Savings Trust? Policy issues – managing demand

11. Rising flood risk in the SE Probability and consequences predicted to increase SE at greater risk than other regions £500m p.a currently spent by Defra on defences, £700m to £1b by 2020 UK: £5b losses in past 5 years to storms and floods Challenges: Deciding on acceptable risk Avoiding panic and blight Finding suitable locations for development Deciding on defence vs. abandonment Funding Compensation

12. Rising flood risk in the SE 2080’s Expected annual probability of flooding 2080’s Expected annual damage (£ million) – residential and commercial

13. Assessing risk and public attitudes to future risks • Greater public involvement • Problems of assessing attitude to future risk • Market trends • The role of insurers and mortgage providers • Influencing development • Maintaining affordable cover • Alternative risk-transfer mechanisms • Planning • Stronger guidance • Conflicting targets • Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems • Addressing the causes of climate change Policy issues

14. Institutions and Governance in the SE Relatively complex water company profile Is there scope for greater co-ordination, both within the region and inter-regionally – particularly with London? What are the implications of the WFD for water planning – water resources and flood management – at the regional level? How can the public, as stakeholders, become more involved?

15. Caution against reliance on supply augmentation • Need robust mechanisms to ensure efficiency savings of 20% • Higher rate of metering with help for high use-low income groups • Building regulations - 20% water efficiency • Local planning powers to mandate higher efficiencies • Pilot SE water efficiency commitment and investigate a WST • Stronger, clearer planning guidance on flood risk and development • Partnership working to deliver suitable housing in suitable locations • SuDS – become the norm, with clearer management responsibility • Governance – investigate greater intra and inter-regional co-ordination and public involvement • Environment to be at the heart of regional plans Summary