Manager: Zak Demko Index Developer: Joe Thompson Business Researcher: Robert Richards

1. Manager: Zak Demko Index Developer: Joe Thompson Business Researcher: Robert Richards Meteorology Researcher: Dan Roble Writer/Editor: Andrea Michalenicz

2. Incorporation of Meteorology • Weather plays a role in everyone’s lives

3. Let’s Go Outdoors! • When outside, many unaware of risks they take while spending time in the sun • Prolonged exposure = sunburns • Skin cancer, wrinkles, freckled skin • Proper use of sunscreen helps reduce risks

4. Truth about UV exposure • Cloud cover affects amount of UV exposure • Thickness determines how much UV penetrates • Forecasting cloud cover and chance for precipitation can help predict daily UV levels • Skin feels cool, it will not burn quickly • False, same amount UV reaches skin • Higher temperature doesn’t mean more burns

5. Forecasting Clouds and Precipitation • Goal – provide forecasts and science to aid in generating more profit

8. What Will Penetrate Today? • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Environmental Protection Acency • Clear skies – 100% reaches surface • Scattered clouds – 89% • Broken cloud conditions – 73% • Overcast – 32% reaches surface

9. What About Moisturizer? • Can forecast conditions where usage likely • Temperature dependent • Low humidity

11. Forecast Accuracy? • Difficult to have long term accuracy • Butterfly Effect • Update forecasts as necessary • Climatology often used in long range forecasts • Intellovations study on temperature forecast accuracy in 2005

12. ForecastWatch study on forecasting accuracy by Intellovations in 2005 Does decrease with time, but does not mean forecasts are bad

13. Improving models: Met Office

14. Why Use Indices? • Our indices will help you to know where the greatest demand for your product will be. • Increases sales and minimizes selling your product at cost. • Reduces labor, shipping, and spoilage.

15. Index Display • Our indices will be displayed as a color coded graph. • There will be 1 value assigned to each state, which will give us our index. • This will allow you to know which states will have the greatest need for your products.

16. Example Display

17. General Index Information • Index will be updated daily, and will forecast for 10 days out. • Your company has the option of a human forecast or a computer automated forecast. • Your company also has the option of keeping our index exclusive with your company.

18. Our Indicies • Sunny Skies Skindex • Index for the use of sunscreen, includes our patented Fundex. • Chaf-index • Index for the use of moisturizer, also includes our patented Fundex.

19. Sunny Skies Skindex

20. Most Important Variable • UV Index • A Sunny Skies Skindex value will be designated according to the statewide average

21. Determining Statewide UV Average • Each state will receive a daily UV Index value • The daily value will be determined by three cities that are chosen in each state based on geographic location

22. Example

23. Another Example

24. How to get Index Value • The 10 daily UV Index values for each state will then be averaged to get an overall average UV Index for the state • A corresponding value (from 1-100) will then be given based on our Sunny Skies Skindex

25. Outdoor Factor • People want to play! So what weather is ideal for being outdoors (and needing sunscreen)?

26. Fundex • We here at A.N.A.L have developed our own unique Fundex, that consists of weather variables to measure the likelihood people will be outdoors • These variables consist of Temperature, Season, and Probability of Precipitation (POPs)

27. Temperature • The temperature is key to determining whether people will be active outdoors • Our Fundex accounts for temperatures that are too high, too low, or just right

28. What About the Season? • The time of year could play a difference in outdoor activity • Our Index accounts for this in the scaling of temperature (also accounts for geography)

29. Probability of Precipitation • Have to be careful with this variable • Can still help determine optimal outdoor weather

30. Chafin-dex

31. What variables are important? • Relative humidity (RH) • Temperature • Probability of precipitation (POPs- very minimal)

32. Implications of Relative Humidity • Relative humidity can vary significantly from the morning to evening hours on a daily basis • Can also vary weekly as large storm systems enter and exit a region. • How do we account for this?

33. Relative Humidity • Take values of relative humidity predicted every three hours and average them over a single day for each individual city. • Each city is assigned a value based on average

34. Relative Humidity • A statewide average is determined by averaging the three city values. • The average of the ten daily averages will be taken to determine a state average for the ten day period

35. Temperature • Will people go outdoors? • Pools, oceans, sun exposure • Will people be using air conditioners or furnaces?

36. Temperature • Seasons/Time of year • Lower temps = lower dew points • Even if RH is high, dew points can dry out thermal layer around the skin • Prolonged exposure to the sun

37. Calculating a Value • Temperature is included as most of the Fundex • There are thresholds that take into account warm and cold factors that lead to dry skin • For each city, the assigned threshold values will be averaged, resulting in a statewide average. • Ten daily averages will be taken to receive a statewide average

38. Probability of Precipitation (POPs) • Used for a sense of weather is good enough for sunbathing or swimming • POP will be determined for each of the three cities and assigned a value. • The three cities values will be used to determine a statewide value • Statewide value averaged over ten days and weighted accordingly

39. Business Tactics Benefits to be gained through usage of our indices. Various methods and statistics will be discussed with the goal of helping the company in question getting monetary gain. Now let us dive right into the reasons you will want our product!

40. Financial Breakdown • Total revenue brought in for the company in PA/Nationally is $470,400/$23,520,000. (Including Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors)

41. Total revenue brought in for the company in PA/Nationally is $480,000/$24,000,000. (Excluding Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors) Figure 1/Figure 2: Total revenue once spoilage and sale pricing factors are eliminated.

42. Total revenue brought in for the company in PA/Nationally is $516,000/$25,800,000. (Excluding Spoilage/Sale Pricing Factors And Cutting Labor By 10%) Figure 3: Projected revenue with 10% cut on labor in addition to excluded spoilage and sale pricing.

43. Money Saving Techniques • Noevir's Skin Care Philosophy: 1. Using a more natural approach in product manufacturing can save a company up to 10% on labor and shipping costs. 2. The more natural approach is also more atmosphere-friendly with regard to Global Warming. The meaning here is you, the company, save money on regulatory laws.

44. Money Saving Techniques • Neutrogena’s Environmental, Health, and Safety (EHS) standards: 1. Methods allow any business to achieve efficiency and more profit from manufactured products. 2. Safer work conditions and minimizing environmental impact increases social responsibility. The improvements relate a more suitable fit to our index’s many variables. 3. All of this in the hope of creating a more productive working environment on all ends to meet the demands and come out on top. Our primary goal is to make you go over the top and with our index you will!

45. Money Saving Techniques • Pangea Organics/L’Oreal’s Cost Effective Approaches: 1. L’Oreal’s method involves researching for the best and most cost effective products yearly. L’Oreal does this by being in the top 100 in the country for research by companies, and advertising products using a seasonal approach to attract customers. 2. Pangea Organics is known for the volume of product manufacturing they do. Pangea Organics determines what product is selling best then implements the product into more cost effective advertising and development campaigns to better there profit.

46. Effective Employment Breakdown • Here are a few major positions in a company that can benefit from our index: 1. Sales Engineers: Sells business goods or services, the selling of which requires a technical background. 2. Sales Managers: Direct the distribution of a product or service to the customer by establishing sales territories, quotas, and goals. 3. Sales and Related Workers: Labor needed to produce the product at hand with an efficient and proper understanding of environmental and advertising criteria.

47. Closing Statements • Overall, the business strategies and methods presented before you today show the effect that our index will have on your business. • Correct strategies lead to profit increase through a decrease in spoilage, sale pricing, and cutting labor efficiently. • The information presented to you here today will push any company to the top by implementing these cost effective strategies with the use of our index.

48. Contract Information • Payment to A.N.A.L. Consultants based on how much money your company saves per month. • Choices within payment, depending on variables such as exclusiveness and forecasting skill

49. Payment Options • For an automated forecast that is not exclusive to your company, 5% of your total saved income will be paid to A.N.A.L. Consultants. • For an automated forecast that is exclusive to you’re your company, 10% of your total saved income will be paid to A.N.A.L. Consultants.

50. Payment Options Con’t • For a human forecast that is not exclusive to your company, 15% of your total saved income will be paid to A.N.A.L. Consultants. • For a human forecast that is exclusive to your company, 20% of your total saved income will be paid to A.N.A.L. Consultants.