Phase 1 Expert Panels

1. Phase 1 Expert Panels • Aviation Trends (January) • New Air Traffic Control Technology (February) • Demand Management (April) • Governance and Institutions (June) www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/air_plan/index.htm

2. Airports Airports Council Intl Boston Logan San Diego Authority Sacramento County Regional Agency (SCAG) FAA NASA Boeing Aircraft UC Berkeley Consultants Roach and Sbarra The Velocity Group KPA GRA Jacobs Consultancy ATAC Experts Consulted

3. Bay Area Air Passengers

4. Airport Shares of Passengers

5. Bay Area Cargo Growth

6. We are in the Midst of an Historic Boom in Sales (Jets)

7. Very Light Jets Cessna Mustang Eclipse 500 Embraer Phenom 100 Honda Jet

8. We Need to Revise Forecasts • Price will be important/fuel costs • Airport forecasts are highly dependent on airline marketing decisions, which are difficult to predict • A tracking system of key forecast indicators should be developed

9. In Constant Dollars Passenger Fares per Mile Have Been Declining for Eighty Years 80¢ 70¢ Actual 60¢ 50¢ 40¢ Trend 30¢ 20¢ 10¢ 0¢ 1926 1930 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006* US Domestic Yield per Passenger Mile (in Cents), Constant Dollars, 1982 - 1984 = 100 Domestic O & D Traffic: Prices Matter

10. Next Generation Air Transportation System

11. 30.0% VMC 25.0% MVMC 20.0% IMC Percent Increase (Ops/Hr) 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Baseline+New RNP RNP+LAAS RNP+LAAS+3D Runways Paths+ATM Tools+Rwy Sol New Technology Has the Potential to Increase Airport Capacity

12. RNP Background – Alaska Airlines • Pioneered RNP in Alaska • To serve "terrain-challenged" airports (e.g., Juneau-Gastineau Channel) • Exploit advanced avionics on its B-737-400+’s Source: Alaska Airlines

13. New Technology Can Improve Poor Weather Capacity at SFO

14. Cockpit Synthetic Vision System • Provides pilots with a realistic depiction of terrain databases and standard aircraft systems on a standard flight deck display. • SVS is primarily used on approach or takeoff during low visibility conditions, providing pilots with realistic visuals and easy-to-follow flight path guidance.

15. Reduced Wake Turbulence Separation Could Increase Capacity

16. A set of scheduling and flow management tools that assist air traffic mangers and sector controllers in balancing arrival demand with airport capacity • Assures a smooth flow of arrival traffic into the TRACON • Increase airport capacity • Reduce arrival delays • Reduce controller workload Traffic Management Advisor for Air Traffic Controllers Courtesy of the Transition Working Group, FAA Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee

17. Other Technology Benefits • Greater all-weather capacity for general aviation reliever airports • Potential Continuous Descent Approaches for commercial airports during low traffic periods (noise, emission benefits) • Safety • Reduced controller workload

18. Some Key Technology Issues • Industry acceptance (safety, training, etc.) • Cost and who pays • Need for further system integration/ engineering work • Mixed airline equipage (some aircraft will have it, some won’t) • Pace of development-when will technologies be ready?

19. Findings/ Recommendations • Many promising technologies to increase capacity, but few undergoing necessary system engineering to make a reality • RAPC needs periodic updates by the FAA • RAPC will continue to examine in Phase 2 • RAPC, airports, and local communities need to be proactive • Look at Continuous Descent Approaches

20. Demand ManagementWhat is It? • Manage aircraft operations to better match runway capacity -require airlines to use aircraft which carry more passengers -limit number of flights in peak hour -limit types of aircraft using airport (e.g., GA) • Federal rules and regulations make difficult to implement

21. Only a Few Examples • Where Congress has mandated hourly limits (“slots”) -JFK, LaGuardia, Wash Nat’l, O’Hare • Boston Logan-minimum landing fees (1988, overturned in court) • Boston Logan-peak period pricing (current, but not activated due to low traffic) • SFO- study underway

22. Massport’s PACE Program-Goals

23. Ways Airports Can Implement • Minimum landing fees instead of weight-based fees (if fees properly structured) • Airline leases (airline efficiency measures) • Congestion pricing (with FAA approval)

24. Findings/Recommendations • No clear path to implementing demand management • Review SFO Study as it progresses • Request OAK examine demand management prior to major runway congestion • Support a pilot Congestion Pricing program in FAA reauthorization legislation

25. Governance Panel • Could new institutional arrangements improve long-term decision making? • What would these look like? -So. Calif. Regional Airport Authority (regionalization) -New England Airport Coalition (regionalization) -San Diego (new airport site selection)

26. Recommendations • In Phase 2, examine strengths and weaknesses of: -New Authority -Joint Powers Agreement (JPA) -Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) • Examination would be relative to Vision and Functional Needs to implement a new Vision

27. Next Steps • RAPC to review and adopt Phase 1 Findings and Recommendations (October 15) • RAPC will consider all comments • Staff will respond to comments

28. Questions/Comments?