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Park Lane Methodist Church Sunday 14 th May 2006 Climate Change and the Environment

Park Lane Methodist Church Sunday 14 th May 2006 Climate Change and the Environment. Our Insatiable Appetite for Energy POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES. Keith Tovey Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director C Red Project. 14.

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Park Lane Methodist Church Sunday 14 th May 2006 Climate Change and the Environment

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  1. Park Lane Methodist Church Sunday 14th May 2006 Climate Change and the Environment Our Insatiable Appetite for Energy POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES Keith Tovey Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science Director CRedProject 14

  2. Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy • This series is looking at the Environment, Climate Change and Global Warming. • Last week we saw that Climate Change is partly natural, but most effects in last 50 years have been from man’s activities – burning of fossil fuels for energy • Today’s talk will review what resources and their potential for the next 50 years. • Next Week we will go on to consider the hard choices facing us • Then: what can we do about it? • what should we as Christians do about it? • Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE • HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: • School of Environmental Sciences • Lay Chairman, Norwich East Deanery CRed

  3. Climate Change and our insatiable appetite for energy 2003 1979 Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 • Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region • Nasa satellite imagery • 20% reduction in 24 years CRed Source: Nasa www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

  4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES CURRENT AND PROJECTED USAGE Projected Saturation Population in 2050 -- 10000 M consumption averages current UK value Requirement in 2050 = 50 TW 50 billion kW. consumption reaches current USA value Requirement in 2050 = 100 TW i.e. 10 times current demand Range of forecasts 20 - 100 TW with a likely value in range 30 - 50 TW (say 40 TW).

  5. To discuss now • Is 10 billion a realistic assumption for population? • Or will Bird Flu solve our problems and halve that figure? • Does 4 kW per person seem reasonable - 80% of our current level, 70% of European Level, 40% or US level • What exactly do we mean by renewable energy resources? • Are any of the following resources renewable? • Geothermal, Peat, Hydro?? • Gas, Oil, Coal?? To discuss now • Is 10 billion a realistic assumption for population? • Or will Bird Flu solve our problems and halve that figure? • Does 4 kW per person seem reasonable - 80% of our current level, 70% of European Level, 40% or US level • What exactly do we mean by renewable energy resources? • Are any of the following resources renewable? • Geothermal, Peat, Hydro?? • Gas, Oil, Coal?? • To discuss later • Are there differences in our meaning of Renewable with Solar, Wind, Biomass? • What is needed to bring our use of resources into harmony with nature on God’s planet?

  6. PROJECTED LIFESPAN OF RESOURCES 1 trillion = 1 million millions decades:- centuries: millennia: projected average consumption of 40 TW annual consumption will be:- 350 trillion units (kWh) at present it is 90 trillion units Compare this to the Current World Proven Reserves:- Oil Reserves:- 1500 trillion units Gas Reserves:- 1500 trillion units Uranium:- 1000 trillion units Coal Reserves:- 7000 trillion units Uranium (Fast Breeder):- 25000 trillion units Fusion (Deuterium):- 275 billion trillion units Oil Shales 235U, Oil, Tar sands, Gas, Coal, Geothermal, 238U, D – T fusion, 232Th D – D fusion

  7. "RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES" Orders of magnitude only Practically Achievable:- 10 - 50 million kW – Tidal 100 – 500 million kW - Geothermal; OTEC; Biomass; Wastes 1 – 5 billion kW - Hydro; Wind; Waves 10 – 50 billion kW – Solar We will need all the renewables we can get Projected demand is 40 billion kW

  8. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES 1 TW = 1 billion kW 1 GW = 1 million kW

  9. NON-SOLAR Geothermal 30 60+ 10 Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand Tidal 3 50 1 France, Russia, China Theoretical Practical Realised to date TW GW GW 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES 1 TW = 1 billion kW 1 GW = 1 million kW

  10. SOLAR Direct Geothermal NON-SOLAR 30 60+ 10 Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand Tidal (on land) 3 30000 50 30000 1 10* France, Russia, China USA, Israel: third world Solar Pump Normal hot water circuit Solar Circuit Theoretical Practical Realised to date TW GW GW POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

  11. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES - Solar It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

  12. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES 1 TW = 1 billion kW 1 GW = 1 million kW

  13. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES 1 TW = 1 billion kW 1 GW = 1 million kW

  14. SOLAR Indirect Wind 30 1000 20 and rising rapidly USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 800 MW in UK Theoretical Practical Realised to date TW GW GW POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

  15. SOLAR Indirect Waves OTEC 3 30 30 300 0.001 0.01 UK, Norway, Japan USA Wind 30 1000 20 and rising rapidly USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 800 MW in UK Theoretical Practical Realised to date TW GW GW POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES Pelamis: 750 kW device installed August 2004: Orkney Operated for 10 days – was in dock for 9 months at Lyness 1 TW = 1 billion kW 1 GW = 1 million kW

  16. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol? Hydrogen????

  17. The Star of the East A vision of the future for Norwich A vision for Dongtan Shanghai

  18. International Airport country park Approx 1km 3

  19. turbine viewing & display gallery river walk & quay energy station floating farmers market (proposed residential development) 2

  20. R & D, factories of the future 4

  21. interactive learning centre working environmental organisations (country park) 5

  22. low carbon residential ring market 6

  23. Star of the East Alsop Architects

  24. View from Thorpe Station The STAR will be 50% higher than the pylons which will be demolished

  25. To discuss • Are there differences in our meaning of Renewable with Solar, Wind, Biomass? • What is needed to bring our use of resources into harmony with nature on God’s planet?

  26. WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at the above site: follow the links to Academic Resources Conclusions • We need to think carefully about our options • Next week the Hard Choices facing us • ROCs, TOCs, HOCs, LATs, ETS and all that Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge to combat Climate Change? CRed "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

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