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This report provides an update on the recent evolution, current status, and prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It includes information on recent rainfall patterns, monsoon prediction, and climatology. Visit the link for more details.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 18, 2019 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits dominated deep coastal southern peninsular India, Korea, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, large parts of New Guinea island of Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, and almost all of Australia, particularly north western regions. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly in southeastern China, Kashmir India, parts of the Middle East, and Indonesia.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, seasonal rainfall fell over Kashmir, Nepal, and across the Middle East in general. Large rainfall fell over southeast China. But large parts of Australia continue to be abnormally dry, especially in the north.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, much of the region received below normal rainfall except parts of the Papua New Guinea and eastern coastal Australia.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits dominated deep coastal southern peninsular India, Korea, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, large parts of New Guinea island of Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, and almost all of Australia, particularly north western regions. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly in southeastern China, Kashmir India, parts of the Middle East, and Indonesia. For the past 30 days, seasonal rainfall fell over Kashmir, Nepal, and across the Middle East in general. Large rainfall fell over southeast China. But large parts of Australia continue to be abnormally dry, especially in the north. In this past week, much of the region received below normal rainfall except parts of the Papua New Guinea and eastern coastal Australia. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts below normal across much of southeast Asia in the first week, but slight to above normal rainfall over northern parts of Australia during both weeks, a much needed relief in this region.
