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ATOC 6700 Weather Forecasting Discussion

ATOC 6700 Weather Forecasting Discussion. Student Introductions. Tell us: Your name Your year in ATOC graduate program The topic of your research. Course Goals. Apply theoretical concepts from ATOC core classes (esp. ATOC 5050 and 5060) to real-world mid-latitude weather

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ATOC 6700 Weather Forecasting Discussion

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  1. ATOC 6700Weather Forecasting Discussion

  2. Student Introductions • Tell us: • Your name • Your year in ATOC graduate program • The topic of your research

  3. Course Goals • Apply theoretical concepts from ATOC core classes (esp. ATOC 5050 and 5060) to real-world mid-latitude weather • Attempt to develop a cohesive “story” to relate atmospheric processes to the weather observed at specific locations • You will have incomplete data as you develop your story – this is the same challenge you will face in your research

  4. Course Approach • Weekly weather discussion led by students • What are the key weather elements that will influence the weather at our forecast cities? • How will these weather elements impact the sensible weather at our forecast cities for the next several days? • Forecasting contest • Critique past forecasts to learn sources of forecast errors • Weekly forecast analysis write-up

  5. How will we achieve these goals? • Weekly weather discussion (handout) • Forecast review • Discussion of past week’s significant weather (optional) • Forecast discussion • Forecasting contest • Forecast daily high and low temperature • Forecast daily precipitation category • Forecasts for 6 to 54 hours in the future (day 1 and 2) • Forecast for Denver, CO and Chicago, IL • Forecasting contest entry page • Written forecast analysis (handout) • Analysis of your forecast for one forecast city • Key weather elements you expected to impact the city • Impact of these weather elements on the sensible weather in the forecast city • What did you forecast and what verified? • What aspects of your forecast were correct / incorrect?

  6. ATOC 6700 Expectations • You should plan on: • Spending at least 1 hour per week preparing your forecasts • Spending 1 to 2 hours per week assessing your forecast and preparing your written forecast analysis • Contributing to the weekly weather discussions • Leading one weekly weather discussion during the semester, which will require several hours preparation

  7. Weather Forecasting Review ATOC 6700 28 August 2013

  8. Key Weather Elements • Troughs / ridges • PVA / NVA • Jet stream • Fronts • Low and high pressure centers

  9. Key Weather Elements • Troughs / ridges • PVA / NVA • Jet stream • Fronts • Low and high pressure centers

  10. Why are these important for forecasting the weather? • Rising / sinking motion • Cloud and precipitation development • Divergence / convergence • Forces vertical motion • Surface pressure • Temperature advection / air mass change • Wind shift (frontal) • Rising motion (frontal)

  11. Forecasting Local Weather • Temperature • Air mass temperature / CAA / WAA • Clouds – day vs. night • Winds – day vs. night • Time of year • Recent precipitation / soil moisture / snow cover • Local effects on temperature (topography) • Humidity / fog impacts on temperature

  12. Forecasting Local Weather • Cloud cover • Moisture • Rising or sinking motion • Frontal clouds • Convective clouds

  13. Forecasting Local Weather • Wind • Near surface wind and SLP • Or look at 850 or 700 mb maps for indication of surface winds at DEN • Upslope vs. downslope winds • Topographic effects on winds (wind storms)

  14. Forecasting Local Weather • Precipitation • Moisture availability • Dynamic forcing • Troughs / ridges / PVA / NVA • Jet stream • Fronts • Low pressure center • Local forcing • Topography

  15. Weather Terms Refresher • A weather term primeris available on the class web page (at the bottom of the Weather Links page)

  16. Weather Products Available Online • ATOC 6700 web page • NCAR Real-time Weather Data • University of Wyoming Weather Web • Plymouth State Weather Center • NCEP Models • Forecast Model Animator • National Weather Service web pages • Week in Review – Observations • Week in Review – Guidance Review

  17. Observational Weather Products • Surface data • Maps (NCAR Real-time Weather Data, NWS North American Surface Analysis ) • Text list of time series (Plymouth State) • Meteograms (Plymouth State) • Upper air maps (University of Wyoming) • What levels are of interest for forecasting? • What can we learn from each upper air map? • Soundings (University of Wyoming)

  18. Observational Weather Products • Satellite images (NCAR Real-time Weather Data) • Radar (NCAR Real-time Weather Data) • Severe weather • Thunderstorms (Storm Prediction Center) • Hurricanes (National Hurricane Center)

  19. NWP Products • Model forecast maps • Which maps are of interest for forecasting? • NCEP Models • Forecast Model Animator • NCAR Real-time Weather Data • University of Wyoming • Model output statistics (MOS) • Ex. DEN NAM MOS • Reading MOS products

  20. NWS Products • Zone Forecast • DEN • ORD • Grid Forecast • DEN • ORD • Forecast Discussion • DEN • ORD

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