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Discussion of: - TAS meeting - MWG Activities - Test ReRuns – AB32

Discussion of: - TAS meeting - MWG Activities - Test ReRuns – AB32. MWG Meeting August 19, 2013. Agenda. WECC Update Task Force Update AB32 Testing (Re-runs). Why need for re-running?. The hurdle rate adder reductions were applied to all imports, rather than just the Northwest imports

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Discussion of: - TAS meeting - MWG Activities - Test ReRuns – AB32

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  1. Discussion of:- TAS meeting- MWG Activities- Test ReRuns – AB32 MWG Meeting August 19, 2013

  2. Agenda • WECC Update • Task Force Update • AB32 Testing(Re-runs)

  3. Why need for re-running? • The hurdle rate adder reductions were applied to all imports, rather than just the Northwest imports • Intention was to only reduce the adder for the Northwest imports (copy/paste error) • Took opportunity to modify the AB32 cost assumptions based on new info. • Also added test case using 20% NW import for May – July, 100% other months

  4. AB32 CO2 Test Cases • Use 2022 Common Case • California CO2Cost $30.89/ton (CEC preliminary estimate) • Undesignated Hurdle ($14.81) applied to CA Transmission Interfaces (imports) in addition to base hurdle rates • Update CA export hurdle rate based on CAISO latest estimate (about $7/MWh) • Adjusted CO2 cost applied to San Juan 3 ($15.06/ton) • Sensitivities on NW Unspecified CO2Hurdle rate ($14.81) at 100% ,80%, 60%, 40%, 20% • Potential to derive seasonal /monthly CO2 hurdle rates to reflect BPA high export seasons.

  5. 2022 PC1 Hurdle Rates

  6. AB32 Test Results (revised)

  7. Test Case AB32-20 Northwest Basin Rockies Desert SW Import Tariff Adder +$2.96/MWh Export Tariff $7/MWh California 20% of $14.81 Import Tariff Adder +$14.81/MWh Carbon Tax $30.89/ton Other Carbon Tax IGS 1 = $30.89/ton IGS 2 = $30.89/ton SanJuan 3 = $15.06/ton

  8. Generation Change by location & type

  9. Variable Cost Comparison

  10. Test Case AB32-40 Northwest Basin Rockies Desert SW Import Tariff Adder +$5.92/MWh Export Tariff $7/MWh California 40% of $14.81 Import Tariff Adder +$14.81/MWh Carbon Tax $30.89/ton Other Carbon Tax IGS 1 = $30.89/ton IGS 2 = $30.89/ton SanJuan 3 = $15.06/ton

  11. Generation Change by location & type

  12. Variable Cost Comparison

  13. Test Case AB32-100 Northwest Basin Rockies Desert SW Import Tariff Adder +$14.81/MWh Export Tariff $7/MWh California 100% of $14.81 Import Tariff Adder +$14.81/MWh Carbon Tax $30.89/ton Other Carbon Tax IGS 1 = $30.89/ton IGS 2 = $30.89/ton SanJuan 3 = $15.06/ton

  14. Generation Change by location & type

  15. Variable Cost Comparison

  16. Test Case AB32-100/20 Northwest 20% of NW import cost May - July Basin Rockies Desert SW Import Tariff Adder +$14.81/MWh +$2.96/MWh Export Tariff $7/MWh California Import Tariff Adder +$14.81/MWh 100% and 20% of $14.81 Carbon Tax $30.89/ton Other Carbon Tax IGS 1 = $30.89/ton IGS 2 = $30.89/ton SanJuan 3 = $15.06/ton

  17. Generation Change by location & type

  18. Variable Cost Comparison

  19. AB32-100/20 Load/gen Snapshot for NWUS with Regional Transfers end of July – beginning of August (hurdle rate increases, transfers to CA decrease)

  20. AB32-100/20 Load/gen Snapshot for NWUS with Area LMP end of July – beginning of August (hurdle rate increases, transfers to CA decrease)

  21. Northwest Interchange (8760 hours)

  22. California Import Hurdle Rates Northwest BASIN IGS VC PC1 $13 AB32 $46 AB32-20 $ 9.06 AB32-40 $12.02 AB32-100 $20.91 ALL $20.21 ALL $17.11 SJ3 VC PC1 $17 AB32 $35 AB32-20 $ 8.86 AB32-40 $11.82 AB32-100 $20.71 CA-North AZNMNV CA-South ALL $17.41

  23. AB32 Result Comparison

  24. COI plus PDCI

  25. COI plus PDCI (with split 100/20 run)

  26. Intermountain DC

  27. West of River

  28. Comparison of Regional Transfers

  29. AB32 Test Case Observations/Comments • Overall, CO2 Hurdle costs raise dispatch costs of CA resources and increases Imports • NW CO2 Hurdle impacts NW and SW imports and regional CO2 levels • Inter-mountain Coal units generation reduced significantly in all cases with AB32 modeled • AB32-20 Case: year-around low CO-2 costs across CO/PDCI results in very large increases in NW imports as NW CCGT’s maximized. • AB32-100/20 Case: better reflects seasonality of BPA exports • Overall low impact to CO2 emmissions WECC-wide, but shift between CA vs. Non-CA regions

  30. Other Issues for MWG • 2010 Backcast recommendations • Data modeling • Biomass • Reserves • Other?

  31. Comments and Questions

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