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Cattle Markets: Situation, Outlook, and Issues Oklahoma State University Webinar September 9, 2014

Cattle Markets: Situation, Outlook, and Issues Oklahoma State University Webinar September 9, 2014. James G. Robb Director. 28 Land Grant Universities:. USDA Members: ERS APHIS GIPSA NASS WAOB AMS. Associate Members: AFBF ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group Canadian Consortium

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Cattle Markets: Situation, Outlook, and Issues Oklahoma State University Webinar September 9, 2014

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  1. Cattle Markets: Situation, Outlook, and Issues Oklahoma State University Webinar September 9, 2014 James G. Robb Director

  2. 28 Land Grant Universities: USDA Members: ERS APHIS GIPSA NASS WAOB AMS Associate Members: AFBF ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group Canadian Consortium Noble Foundation CoBank TCFA CWB TCU NWFCS

  3. Topics: Price Drivers and … • Perspective on Cattle Prices • Beef Demand • Domestic • Foreign Markets • Feedstuffs Backdrop • A Few Comments on Poultry and Pork • More on Cattle Markets • U.S. Cattle Inventory • Cost and Return Prospects • Time to Plan is Now USDA Data Sources – NASS, AMS, FAS, and ERS All Forecasts – LMIC

  4. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  5. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  6. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  7. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  8. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  9. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  10. US Consumer Demand and Consumption (Disappearance)

  11. Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Livestock Marketing Information Center

  12. Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  13. Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  14. Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  15. International Trade Perspective

  16. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  17. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  18. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  19. Feedstuffs -- Corn

  20. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  21. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  22. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  23. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  24. Poultry and Pork

  25. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  26. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  27. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  28. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  29. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  30. Cattle

  31. BEEF COWS THAT CALVEDJANUARY 1, 2014(1000 Head) U.S. Total: 29042 Data Source: USDA-NASS

  32. CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 2013 TO JANUARY 2014(1000 Head) U.S. Total: -255 Data Source: USDA-NASS

  33. Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  34. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  35. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  36. Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  37. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  38. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  39. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  40. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  41. Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  42. Latest Data: August 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  43. Economic Environment: Cow/Calf Plan Now • Domestic Consumer Beef Demand Has Improved • Foreign Beef Demand Surprisingly Strong • Chicken and Pork Output Ramping-Up • Controls Already Set to Reduced Beef Output Throughout 2015 • Cattle Price Peak on the Horizon: 2015, 2016, or 2017? • Mistakes Are Costly, Sound Business Practices Required • Feedstuff Costs Down But Still High – Forage is Valuable • Time To Plan is Now! • Estimate Income • Visit with Tax Professional • Develop Alternatives and Evaluate Ranch ROI

  44. Issues, Issues, Issues…. TSC – The Sustainability Consortium QE II Farm Bill LRP Price Discovery RFS LFTB natural CWT Imports organic MPR Animal Rights Traceability CAFO Phytosanitary CFTC BEV GE Animals NAIS Free Trade Agreements FMD FSIS OIE BSE H1N1 Check-off COOL Grades & Standards Formula Pricing CRP Packer Ban WTO Taxes AMA’s PEDv i-rate Captive Supply Oil Price GMO Seed Food Safety APA QSA Immigration Legislation Risk Mgmt Regionalization Food Prices ABF (Antibiotic Free) Cost of Production Crop Insurance AI EPA Rules Ethanol Financial Regulation Horse Harvesting Exchange Rate GIPSA- Rule QUALITY Excess Capacity Beta-agonists

  45. www.lmic.info Thank You!

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