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Severe Weather Operations Items

Severe Weather Operations Items. Polygon drawing . Severe Weather Operations Items. Polygon Length & CWA Border Issues. What problems do you see with this potential warning?. Title. Storm will be at end of Pathcast /Polygon in 40 min (19:30 UTC).

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Severe Weather Operations Items

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  1. Severe Weather Operations Items Polygon drawing National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office Caribou, Maine

  2. Severe Weather Operations Items Polygon Length & CWA Border Issues National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office Caribou, Maine

  3. What problems do you see with this potential warning? Title National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office Caribou, Maine

  4. Storm will be at end of Pathcast/Polygon in 40 min (19:30 UTC) Another warning will be needed small area. Title National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office Caribou, Maine

  5. 19:30 UTC: Storm is at end of polygon and warning will expire. Title New warning needed for sliver between storm and Canadian Border. National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office Caribou, Maine

  6. How can we mitigate issuing a second warning and making things more complicated for the public? Title National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office Caribou, Maine

  7. Is this a good idea? Title National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office Caribou, Maine

  8. Is this a good idea? ABSOLUTELY NOT!!!!!!!! Title National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office Caribou, Maine

  9. Storm will be at end of Pathcast/Polygon in 40 min (19:30 UTC) when the warning expires Title • Recall: The duration of the warning is still 40 min. • In 40 min the storm will be at end of pathcast line regardless of how far you pull the polygon! • After that the warning will expire while still west of Limestone. • Ergo…another warning is still needed. You gained nothing by extending the polygon. National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office Caribou, Maine

  10. 19:30 UTC – Storm is just north of Limestone when warning expires. New warning is still needed. Title National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office Caribou, Maine

  11. Title • The correct course of action is… • Increase the duration time of the warning so that pathcast line clears the areas you want in the warning. • 2) Then adjust your polygon accordingly. National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office Caribou, Maine

  12. Title National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office Caribou, Maine

  13. 19:30 UTC – Now when storm is just north of Limestone when warning is still valid for until 20:00UTC (0:30 min later). No new warning is needed. Title National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office Caribou, Maine

  14. 20:00 UTC – Warning expires and storm is out of CWA. PERFECT! Only one warning needed. Title National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office Caribou, Maine

  15. Severe Weather Operations Items Storm Motion & Propagation Versus Polygon Drawing

  16. Severe Weather Operations Items Polygons outline the threat of Severe Weather – NOT THE THUNDERSTORM! Polygons should be drawn as small as certainty and environmental factors allow. Simple translation of thunderstorm movement is sometime not sufficient To determine the threat area – polygon boundaries. New cell propagation or left/right moving thunderstorms can move out of the polygon. New polygons/warnings are then needed. Storms may stay in polygon, but severe weather from the storm may occur outside, it storm is close to edge of polygon.

  17. Severe Weather Operations Items New cell development to the Right of original cell Almost went out of polygon

  18. What do we need to do? • The answer is simple. • Understand the environment in which the storms is located. • Understand the environment in which the storm is about to move into (upstream). • Understand the concepts of Storm Motion and Storm Propagation Severe Weather Operations Items

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