Timeline of key events in Egypt

1. Timeline of key events in Egypt • 1952: Free Officers Coup; MuhammedNaguib is President • 1956: Aswan Dam plan/Nationalization of the Suez; Nasser becomes President • 1958-1961: United Arab Republic with Syria • 1967: 6-Day War; beginning of “state of emergency” • 1970: Death of Nasser; accession of Sadat (“Nasser’s poodle”) • 1973: War with Israel (“the crossing”) • 1974: Launch of economic restructuring “infitah” • 1977: Sadat visits Israel • 1979: Camp David Accords: peace with Israel, return of the Sinai, expulsion from the Arab League • 1981: Assassination of Sadat; accession of Mubarak • mid-1980s: Wafd party competes in elections again; Muslim Brotherhood unofficially competes; then increasing political closure • 1989: Egypt readmitted to the Arab League • 1991: Egypt fights against Iraq in the Gulf War • mid-1990s: Islamist revolt; attempts to bring down the government; assassination attempt on Mubarak (1995) • 2004: Increasing, organized popular protest; renewal of Islamist attacks • 2005: first Presidential election installs Mubarak for a 5thterm; parliamentary elections give the Muslim Brotherhood a substantial minority position • 2006-2009: Internal debates over Mubarak’s successor; tightening up on reform • 2010: Parliamentary elections are widely seen as fraudulent; NDP dominates • 2011: President Mubarak ousted in a massive 18-day popular revolution • 2012: President Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood elected

2. Governing structures under Mubarak • Presidency • Source of most political power • Appoints executive cabinet • Hosni Mubarak was one of the longest serving world leaders (30 years) • People’s Assembly (Majlisal-Sha’ab) • 454 members; drafts legislation in conjunction with the cabinet • Dominated by the President’s NDP party, with scattered representation from independents and opposition parties • Consultative Council (Majlis al-Shura) • Advisory body only; 1/3 appointed by the President • President Mubarak • Gamal Mubarak

3. Historical Egyptian political issues • Economic policy • State-led development vs. Capitalism • Role of the infitah • Poverty/Unemployment • State subsidies on employment and food • Massive underemployment and inequality • Foreign policy • Cold war neutral (initial Nasserite position) • Pro-Soviet (1954-1971) • Pro-Western (1974-present) • At the center of the Arab-Israeli conflict • Religion • Keeping Islamists out of the state • Keeping tensions between Muslims and Copts minimal • Civil society • Limited freedom of the Media and organizations • Corruption issues • Political stagnation and the possibility of protest

4. Restricted political liberalization and political parties • Patterns of political liberalization • Tradition of restricted political pluralism under the British/King Faruq • One-party state until Sadat legalized 3 parties in 1976 • National Democratic Party (NDP) as a centrist party; with two legal opposition parties on the center-right and center-left • Mubarak expanded the number of legal parties to 13 in the 1980s • Key political parties • National Democratic Party • Old opposition parties: New Wafd, Labor • Opposition parties are historically very weak and have a small political base • Barriers to free competition • Structural barriers to participation • High levels of political apathy • Exclusion of parties based on class or religion • Muslim Brotherhood illegal, but participated as a collection of independents

5. 21st century elections • The 2000 elections • The NDP did not do well, got under ½ of the seats • But those that did well as independents were friendly to the government and joined the NDP in parliament, so the control of parliament was never in doubt • Muslim Brotherhood independents did very well, but ran in fewer constituencies • The 2005 and 2007 elections • First presidential elections in 2005; Mubarak dominant; relatively low turnout • Increasing number of political protests • Appearance of new political movements and parties (Kifaya and al-Ghad) • Muslim Brotherhood is a scare for the regime in 2005, doing better than anticipated • Brotherhood increasingly excluded in the 2007 shura council elections • How should we understand top-down political liberalization of Egypt? • Parliament has remained weak • Campaign issues have revolved around political process, not just distributive issues • What role has international pressure played? • Kifayya protest • Ayman Nour of al-Ghad

6. Egyptian Islamists and the state • Home of the Islamist movement • Home of the Muslim Brotherhood and SayyidQutb • Long tradition of Islamist opposition to the state • Also strong neo-Sufi movement going on these days • The state under fire • Mid-1990s was the high point of Islamist radicalism • Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya took over Imbaba and declared it an Islamic Republic • Islamist assassinations of prominent political and judicial officials • Attacks on intellectuals, writers, tourists • Massive state retaliation in the mid-1990s • Increasing state control over private mosques, prayer leaders (imams) • Split in Islamist movements • Younger generation of Muslim Brotherhood split off and formed the al-Wasat (center) party in 1996 • Have constraints led to Islamist moderation in Egypt? • Have opportunities for participation led to Islamist moderation?

7. Revolution and political turbulence in Egypt 2011- • Context • National Democratic Party (NDP) dominates through managed electoral competition • Economic growth, then crisis, with rising prices • Military is popular but has entrenched economic interests • Causes • Grievances • Corruption amid economic expansion led to a 2-tier society • Stark lack of opportunity among educated youth • 2010 elections were too fraudulent, causing challengers to doubt participation • Opportunities • Divisions and uncertainty over who would succeed the aging Mubarak • Collective network built around “kefaya” movement and 2004-2005 protests • Online protest networks: “April 6 Movement” and “We are all Khaled Said” • Tunisian example caught the public imagination • Development • Gradual agreement to some political reforms as popular demands kept increasing • Attempts to use vigilantes to deter the protesters • Military strategy finally fails and key officers decide to sacrifice Mubarak • Cautious rule by military tribunal in preparation for elections (SCAF) • Continued popular protest against the slow pace of reforms and lack of accountability

8. Timeline of Mubarak’s ouster • Timeline: Curfew broken; Mubarak dismisses govt. Mubarak says he’ll quit in Sept NDP rulers resign; talks with opposition Military leaves protesters alone Pro- vs. anti- Mubarak clashes. Major clashes with riot police Protests build; el-Baradei returns VP Suleiman appointed Mubarak ousted 1st “day of revolt” Crackdown on protests Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Feb 1 Feb 2 Feb 5 Feb 11

9. Egyptian political institutions today • Political institutions • Constitution • Drafted by an unrepresentative constituent assembly in November 2012 • President • Mohammed Morsi of the FJP becomes President in June 2012 • He takes on the power of the military and the courts • Parliament • Elected Jan 2012 in three rounds of voting • Dissolved by the courts after 6 months • Courts • Led by the Supreme Constitutional Court and Court of Cassation • Have had a standoff with the President after he revised their powers • Military • Major social and economic institution in Egypt • Led by Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which took power after Mubarak was ousted

10. Contemporary political movements and parties • Political movements and parties • Muslim Brotherhood and its Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) dominate • Other “Salafist” Islamist movements parties (ex: al-Nour) also command strong support • Historical legacy parties (“New Wafd”), including old NDP affiliates • “Egyptian Bloc” captures a variety of liberal civil society groups + some smaller liberal party alliances • Centrist splinter groups from the Muslim Brotherhood (“al-Wasat”) • National Salvation Front (el-Baradei) formed to challenge Morsi’s self-given powers • Electoral results (2011-1012) • 508 seats in the National Assembly Democratic Alliance (235) Islamist Bloc (123) New Wafd (38) Egyptian Bloc (34) Ex-NDP parties (18) al-Wasat (10) Reform and Development (9) The Revolution Continues (9) Justice (1) Independents (21) Presidential appointees (10)

11. Map of Egyptian political parties

12. Contemporary political issues in Egypt • Major challenges • Economic stability • Possibility of economic collapse; shortage of cash reserves • Need for political stability to bring back tourism and investment • Political challenges of reforming the Egyptian economy • Political representation and inclusion • Constituent assembly boycotted by Christians and liberals • Potential boycott of 2013 elections • Future status of women and religious minorities • Ongoing disruptive violence • Many deaths following the imposition of death sentences in the Football riots case (January 2013) • Protests and clashes at the Presidential palace and Brotherhood headquarters • An uncertain future • President Morsi must walk a tightrope between allowing voice and enforcing stability • Popular priorities are beginning to shift from democracy towards rule of law • Timing and outcome of parliamentary elections are currently in doubt What do you think could be done to improve Egypt’s trajectory?

13. Lecture terms—March 27 Mohammed el-Baradei Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) Al-Nour party Hosni Mubarak infitah National Democratic Party Kifayya movement Al-Ghad (Tomorrow) Party Al-Azhar Muslim Brotherhood Al-Gamaa al-Islamiyya Al-Wasat (Center) Party April 6 Movement