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Rainfall Forecasting and its Applications FIJI CASE STUDY

Rainfall Forecasting and its Applications FIJI CASE STUDY . Janita Pahalad Simon McGree National Climate Centre Climate Service Division Aust. Bureau of Meteorology Fiji Meteorological Service. Rainfall Forecasting Models – In Brief. FMS Rainfall Prediction Model (RPM) –

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Rainfall Forecasting and its Applications FIJI CASE STUDY

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  1. Rainfall Forecasting and its ApplicationsFIJI CASE STUDY Janita Pahalad Simon McGree National Climate Centre Climate Service Division Aust. Bureau of Meteorology Fiji Meteorological Service

  2. Rainfall Forecasting Models – In Brief • FMS Rainfall Prediction Model (RPM) – • Operational since July 1999 • 3 months forecast • 25 stations • Australian Rainman Model (AusRain) – • Operational since August 1999 • 1 to 12 months forecast • 21 stations

  3. Statistical Models • Requires good quality, unbroken long historical data • Simple, easily implemented, can run on desktop PC • May require initial programming expertise • Easily modified • Implemented anywhere with local data

  4. Applications • Drought Prediction Scheme • Flooding incidences • Frequency of tropical cyclones

  5. User Applications • Agriculture – namely sugar industry • Forestry • Disaster managers • Water resource managers • Military • Red Cross • Hospitals • Civil Aviation • Construction • Tourism

  6. Information Dissemination • FMS Monthly Weather Summary • Website: http://www.met.gov.fj/ • Media (Newspapers/radio) • Direct contact • Press Releases • DMET’s monthly meeting with DISMAC

  7. Concerns and Future Needs • Users – sceptical about forecast – still fairly new concept in this region • Lack of understanding (or acceptance) of probabilistic forecasts • Need for public education on ENSO • Need to expand user network • Need for timely national climate forum • Need to further customise user products

  8. Concerns and Future Needs • Educating the media is most needed • Limited interaction between FMS and water sector – should be enhanced • Examples like FSC and FPL should be applied in other sectors

  9. Main Points • FMS example can be applied to other PIC. • Local knowledge is important and should be used • Regional/global models can be applied but there may be a need to downscale • Climate forecasting is still fairly new in the Region – public awareness is vital • Many prefer deterministic forecasts

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