Cause and Consequence Analysis

1. Cause and Consequence Analysis An Introduction

2. Cause and Consequence Analysis • Links events along a timeline • Explains why things happen or predicts certain events (or certain sets of events will lead to particular consequences (or set of consequences) • Reveals a complex array of causes • Predicts a complex array of consequences

3. Thinking About Causes and Consequences • Why did the War of 1812 [or any war] occur? • What are the consequences of the Great Depression [or any economic disaster]? • What are the effects of a particular chemical reaction or medication? • How did one author influence another?

8. Cause and Consequence Analysis An analysis of causes and effects is necessary speculative—it is based on educated theorizing. Disciplines that use cause and consequence analysis: • Meteorology • History • Can you think of any others?

9. Reading Cause and Consequence Analysis • Does the author’s presentation of causes and/or consequences seem plausible? • If the analysis discusses multiple causes of something, is it clear how they are related or which one is most important? • How well does the analysis achieve its specific purpose—to entertain, to inform, to speculate, or to argue a point—for its specific audience? • How does the author use language and terminology?

10. Writing Cause and Consequence Analysis Pay careful attention to subject, purpose, audience, thesis statement, and method of organization.

11. Considering Your Subject • What event or situation are you analyzing? • What causes or consequences of it can you think of immediately? • Is it a subject that is complex or unfamiliar enough that you should consult sources to find other possible causes or consequences?

12. Determining Your Purpose • What do you want your readers to do as a result of your analysis? • Laugh? • Understand your subject more fully? • Ponder the future? • Change their behavior or way of thinking about the subject? • As you determine which of the four purposes your analysis will have, you’ll also need to determine whether you want to concentrate on the causes or the consequences of something.

13. Considering Your Audience • Who is your audience? • Whether you are writing a causal or consequence analysis, you’ll want to consider specific characteristics of your audience: age, education, experience, attitudes, etc. • How informed are audience members about the event or situation you are analyzing? • What causes or consequences might they be expecting you to mention?

14. Thinking Critically About Different Causes or Consequences • Primary cause: the most important factor • Contributory causes: other factors • Immediate cause: the factor directly producing the event • Remote causes: less obvious (not always less important) factors  In terms of consequences, you will want to distinguish the primary consequence from the secondary consequences and the immediate consequence from the remote consequences.

15. Consider this situation: You’re exhausted. Sometimes you feel too tired to get out of bed and go to class. You’ve felt this way for several weeks now, and you’re beginning to worry. Your mother says it’s because you’re studying too hard, working too many hours, and partying too hard on the weekends. So you cut back on your studying, but you’re still dead tired. You drag yourself over to the health center and tell the doctor all the reasons you are tired. She tells you that you have mononucleosis. • What is the primary cause of your fatigue? • What are the contributory causes?

16. Let’s think about it another way: You know you’re tired on a Monday morning because you stayed out so late on Friday and Saturday nights. Indeed, partying (keeping late hours, eating junk food, etc.) is the immediate cause of your malaise. But the remote causes are that you’re not getting enough rest during the week because you attend classes, have a lot of homework, and work twenty hours a week. The most remote cause of all is your mono, a factor you never suspected.

17. Causal Chains • If your analysis reveals a series of related events, you may see how one situation or event causes another situation or event, which results in yet another situation or event. • In this case, you’ll be analyzing both causes and consequences in your essay. • Don’t confuse causes and consequences with chronology. Don’t assume that just because one event preceded another, the first caused the second (or that the second event was a consequence of the first).

18. Considering Your Thesis Statement Whatever your focus (causes, consequences, or both), your thesis statement should introduce your subject, suggest the reason you’re analyzing it, and state the idea about causes and/or consequences that you want your readers to accept. For example: • I blamed myself for being lazy and stretched too thin with school, work, and play, but only when I went to the health center did I discover I was suffering from an undiagnosed case of mononucleosis. • Because my mononucleosis went undiagnosed for too long, I was unable to remain in school. • Even though mononucleosis is a terrible disease, my bout with it provided me time to rethink my life’s goals.

19. Organizing Your Essay How are you organizing your analysis? You might open your essay with a description of the event or situation you are analyzing and then introduce your thesis statement. After this introduction, you’ll need to decide if you want to use • Chronological order • Emphatic order

20. Chronological v. Emphatic Order In general, chronological (or reverse chronological) order is most effective if you are focusing on the distinction between immediate and remote causes or consequences. Emphatic (or reverse emphatic) order is most effective if you are focusing on the distinction between primary and contributory causes or consequences.

21. Considering Your Language • Your thesis should clearly indicate whether you are focusing on causes, consequences, or both. • Using qualified language such as probably, most likely, and might well be will enhance your credibility. • Using clear transitional words, phrases, and sentences will help guide your reader through your line of thinking. • Choose a tone to suit your purpose.

22. Considering Your Conclusion • Your conclusion allows you to push your readers and your own thinking beyond your thesis statement. • What do you want your readers to take away with them? • What did the analysis reveal to you, and what do you want it to reveal to them? • What are its larger and long-term implications?