Aviation and the environment: status and technological prospects

1. Aviation and the environment:status and technological prospects Jos Dings 30 November 2004

2. About T&E Members in: • Austria • Belgium • Czech & Slovak Rep • Denmark • Estonia • France • Germany • Greece • Hungary • Italy • Netherlands • Norway • Poland • Portugal • Romania • Slovenia • Spain • Sweden • Switzerland • UK www.t-e.nu

3. Economic benefits of air transport into perspective • Contribution to EU economy (1998): approx. 1% • Contribution to EU employment (1998): approx. 0.2% • Contribution to global warming (2000): ca 7% according to latest insights • Contribution to noise nuisance: 15-20% (Germany 2002) www.t-e.nu

4. Global Warming due to aviation in 1992 (IPCC 1999) 140 49 mW/m2 (3.5% of total) 120 100 80 contrails O3-formation 60 Radiative forcing [mW/m2] 40 Methane reduction 20 0 Cirrus clouds Total* CO2 -20 * Including other effects: water vapour directly, soot, sulfate www.t-e.nu

5. Global Warming due to aviation in 2000 (AAC 2003) 140 116 mW/m2 (ca 7% of total) 120 100 80 O3-formation 60 Radiative forcing [mW/m2] 40 contrails Methane reduction 20 0 Cirrus clouds Total* CO2 -20 * Including other effects: water vapour directly, soot, sulfate www.t-e.nu

6. Climate change: baseline trends • Industry: 70% improvement has been achieved per available seat kilometre …. • … yes, but compared with 1st generation jets • Meanwhile volume growth over 1000 % • 1994: B777 with GE90 engine • Since then: no substantial further improvements www.t-e.nu

7. Overview fuel reduction technology • Engine • ‘bleed air’ elimination • Pressure & bypass ratios • High-speed propeller ? • Drag • Aircraft shape • Wingspan and wingtips • grooves, cleaning • Weight • Design • Materials: composites e.g. GLARE www.t-e.nu

8. New projects • 2006: Airbus A380 • Competes with Boeing 747-400 • 555 till even 800 seats • Approx. 10% more fuel efficient, half the noise ? • Wing span (80 x 80) and weight limit reductions • Boeing: 747A can compete (+3.5 m, +35 pax, 7E7 engine, decision 2005) • 2008: Boeing 7E7; Airbus 350 ? • Compete with A330, B757/767 • 200-260 seats • Approx. 15% more fuel efficient ? • Airbus: A330 ‘light’ (+7E7 engines) can compete • Airbus A350 not yet official www.t-e.nu

9. Boeing 7E7 ‘Dreamliner’: 15% better than competitors ? www.t-e.nu

10. Airbus A380: 15% better than Boeing 747 ‘Jumbo Jet’ ? www.t-e.nu

11. Reactions to CO2 + NOx charges in EU airspace • Total CO2 emissions some 115 Mtonnes • EUR 30/tonne CO2, EUR 3.6 per kg NOx ( = approx. 12 ct/l) • Revenue raising: • Reduces CO2 & NOx by approx. 9 & 10% • Demand and supply impacts equal • Revenues EUR 5 bln (35 EU budget) • Revenue neutral (feebate/rebate): • Reduces CO2 & NOx by approx. 5 & 6% • Only supply-side effects • No revenues • Fleet renewal !!!! www.t-e.nu

12. Two sources on supply-side (technology) responses www.t-e.nu

13. Contrails and cirrus • Warm the earth probably more than CO2 • Depend on ambient & exhaust gas temperature & humidity • New engines cause more ! • Solution: Air Traffic Management (EUROCONTROL !) • Military aircraft can avoid them for visibility reasons) www.t-e.nu

14. Alternative: hydrogen ? • Makes water and NOx emissions probably worse • Much heavier aircraft, but lighter fuel • Hydrogen production ? • Many believe kerosene will be one of last oil products www.t-e.nu

15. Local air pollution • In particular: NOx and PM • Problem NOx : Modern engines: less CO2, less PM, less HC, but more NOx ! • Problem PM: massive health issue www.t-e.nu

16. NOx reduction potential • Main approach: improved combustion chamber technology • Staged combustion • Variable airflow inlets • More revolutionary & most promising: • Lean premixed pre-vaporised LPP • Rich burn Quick quench Lean burn (RQL) • Reduction up to 90% claimed www.t-e.nu

17. 100 100 80 80 CAEP/ 2-standard CAEP/ 4-standard 60 60 CAEP/ 6-standard [%] [%] 40 40 (NASA forecast for 2015) 20 20 ICAO-standard (rel.) 0 0 Fleet average EI NOx (rel.) 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 year NOx emission factors vs ICAO standards • NOx emission factor is growing, despite regulation www.t-e.nu

18. Noise: lost opportunities • ‘Chapter 4’ in place in 2006 • Only 3 d(A) quieter than 1978 ‘Chapter 3’ standards • 2001: > 95% already complied • Best aircraft: six times quieter than Ch.4 • Airports now hold the key www.t-e.nu

19. Aircraft can be much, much quieter !!! www.t-e.nu

20. Trade-offs • Between CO2 and NOx : • High pressure ratio engines • Between CO2 and contrails/cirrus • Low temp. exhaust gas -> more contrails • Between CO2 and noise • Steep climb = more fuel • In policy discussions: • Favourite hobby of industry • Less serious than often thought • correct incentives ALL impacts needed www.t-e.nu

21. The future perspective, climate • Growth stays at 4-5%/yr • Climate BaU • CO2: 1% p.a. improvement, 3-4% growth • Contrails/cirrus: > 5% p.a. growth ?. • Climate technically feasible • CO2 improvement up to 2% p.a. ? • Contrails/cirrus: avoidance largeley feazible www.t-e.nu

22. The future perspective, noise & NOx • NOx • BaU: no improvement, > 5% p.a. growth ? • Incentives: large improvements possible • Noise: • BaU: improvement smaller than growth • Incentives: improvement feasible ! • Co-ordinated efforts by airports (noise charges, noise ceilings) www.t-e.nu

23. www.t-e.nu T&E is Europe’s primary NGO campaigning on a Europe wide level for an environmentally responsible approach to transport. info@t-e.nu Rue de la Pépinière 1 | 1000 Brussels Tel.: +322-502 99 09 | Fax: +322-502 99 08 | www.t-e.nu